Poll Position

IF OBAMA WINS, I SUSPECT WE'LL SEE ANOTHER CARTER PRESIDENCY, WITH HIGH INTEREST RATES, HIGH TAXES, HIGH INFLATION, AND AN ANTI-BUSINESS ATTITUDE, AND THEN HE'LL COMPLAIN ABOUT THE "MALAISE" IN AMERICA. IT'' BE INTERESTING TO TRACK THE "MISERY INDEX" THAT CARTER PROMOTED TO GET ELECTED, AND THAT BACKFIRED ON HIM 4 YEARS LATER.

Recent polls show Obama getting 96% of the black vote. This is an amazingly high percentage. It's only 4 points lower than he gets in the poll of Newsweek employees.

NOW, THIS IS INTERESTING....................

According to RealClearPolitics, Obama is leading by 7pts in the National Poll, 70pts in the Electoral College, and leading in 5 out of the 7 "battleground" states".

RasmussenPoll is holding steady w/ Obama leading by 5pts. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 174 votes. When leaners are included, it???s Obama 284, McCain 240.

The Gallup Poll is showing a national tie. But what's interesting is that Obama is no longer showing weakness w/ Catholics, Jews, or Hispanics:

"Among major U.S. religious groups, Catholic voters are most closely divided in their presidential voting preferences, with Barack Obama holding a narrow 47% to 43% advantage over John McCain. McCain leads Obama among Protestants (48% to 41%) and Mormons (70% to 23%) while Obama holds the upper hand among Jewish voters (62% to 29%) and those with no religious affiliation (65% to 25%)."

"Catholics have traditionally been a key swing-voter group, and the 2008 election is proving to be no exception. Obama's appeal to minority voters -- including Hispanics -- helps to push him ahead of McCain among Catholics. In these data, roughly one in seven Catholic registered voters report being of Hispanic ethnicity, and they prefer Obama by a 66% to 25% margin."

Whether you count the Newsweek, LA TIMES, or Bloomburg Polls, (or not), the end result remains the same - If the election were today, McCain would be TOAST!!!!!

Actually, Obama has been the front-runner since he defeated HRC, officially.

Almost forgot.............OH HAPPY DAYS!!!!!!!!!

Howard - these 2 polls are not outliers. The Gallup daily is interesting but not predictive. It is the race state by state (since that is what matters) try www.fivethirtyeight.com. Much more scientific than Real Clear Politics.
Yes we have a long time until election day but the Obama organization in all states, enthusiasm advantage for the Dems (2.5 to 1) and what will be a huge enormous $$ advantage spell disaster for McCain with his poor message and organization.
Also we are tracking news coverage by state from over 2000 media sources (local newspapers, TV and radio) as a proxy for campaign success at:
www.barackobamaradar.com
www.john.mccainradar.com
Obama in our first days has a nearly 2-1 advantage which will amplify as paid media increases....

II would like to see a poll of just women on this. One of the candidates refers to his wife as a c*nt. I have overheard some incendiary statements by women who would not vote for a candidate who refers to his spouse that way and "wouldn't wee wee on him if his guts were on fire", as one demurely stated. Just thought I'd ask in case you get a chance to just call the ladies one day to check this out.

Ouuu. Touchy. Touchy. You display all the defensiveness of a true Democrat working for a true liberal magazine. The best poll money can buy, for sure. Well, if Obama can win the general election with two groups in his pocket: liberals (20% of the population) and blacks (12.7 % of the public) then let him do it.
And by the way, the two groups do overlap.

The Republican Party thought George Bush was a better candidate than McCain in 2000. So now their supporting the runner up to our current moron. Laughable. I can't wait till the debates. Obama will destroy him. I would have preferred the pre-candidate McCain who actually stood for what he believed. Once he got the nod he lined up with W and his neocons. W has the lowest approval ratings of all time. Gas is about triple the price of when he took office. The rich got richer and the sick got sicker. We are still in Iraq and I'm assuming we're still looking for WMDs because that is why we went there right? I think the Dems have the next 8 years pretty well locked up. Obama 08/12

Obama stands for nothing! He is a "straw man." Hillary was the best and only qualified candidate. However, the media and the kool-aid took over. This whole idea he wants to change politics is a naive, uninformed public.

I am so glad that Obama is running for president and is a black man, so on a daily basis Black American can hear what white american actually thinks of black people, represented by the white media(you, fineman) can call him sneaky names like "exotic and different" that would be Pat Buchanan the biggest joke on television and Joe on morning cup of joe, you guys are good for a good laugh

It's 45 to 45 according to gallup.

Thanks to Newsweek and all of the "Press" for deciding another election for us. I don't know why we bother to even vote in America...you guys do such a good job of directing an election. Up until a few days ago, one would have thought that the only two candidates were Hillary and Obama, and now that she has "thrown in the towel", we only seem to have one candidate: Obama. Please continue to lead us like cattle to slaughter because we depend on you to think for us, tell us how we're doing, how bad everything is, and definitely who to vote for! Of course, we all know that when Obama gets in, gas prices will plummet, food prices will drop, the Iraq War will be immediately ended, and taxes will decrease...the Messiah commeth!!!