Poll Position

Looks like I???ll be cancelling my subscription to Newsweek???I wonder if you count your circulation as accurately?

June 25, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama, McCain Tied at 45%Obama had held at least a slim advantage for most of JuneUSA Election 2008 Gallup Daily Americas Northern America PRINCETON, NJ ??? The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on the presidential election finds John McCain and Barack Obama exactly tied at 45% among registered voters nationwide.

??? Posted by Scott

One has to question the reliability of polls which differ so widely from the Rasmussen daily tracking polls. And I don't think the random polls mean much. These polls seem to have a built in advantage to the Democrats. I remember a poll which gave Hillary more than 50% of the vote when her negatives are almost 50%, in a match up with McCain. This was before Obama secured the nomination. When I looked at the random sample, it was 52% Democratic.

In polling, an attempt should be made to get a representative sample of the nation with regard to demographics at least. It would be better if it also got a sample which mirrored political affiliation. There are more Democrats out there than Republicans but a solid third of the electorate is conservative, that's 33.3% likely to vote for McCain. In the Newsweek poll McCain only got 37% which is only 4% points above his base of support.

In most all polls I've seen he gets at least 40% and usually a few points above. And to be fair Obama usually beats McCain in every single poll but usually by not more than 6-7 points tops. I'd say on average from all the polls I've seen its Obama vs McCain, 46% - 42%. That still leaves 12% undecided.

The undecideds will determine the race. I think most will break for McCain. Obama has the advantage of charisma, relative youth, new face, etc. So when you ask a non-ideological person who they are for, they, wishing to be "au courant" will automatically say Obama, rather than McCain. But on reflection people will see Obama with little substance. So when it comes time to actually vote, McCain will have the edge.This is because McCain's attractiveness is boring stuff like military service, long time in the Senate, tenacity, etc.

And I most certainly question the objectivity of Newsweek since they wrote an article on Obama and race which used the venue of giving him advice, way to handle the situation. It was outlandishly partisan!

If my ultra-liberal, Clinton worshipping, aunt and uncle are any indication, Osamabama's toast!!! They wouldn't give him the time of day.

The article is more a defense of Newsweek's polling that an informative piece of benefit to the voters.

And if you have to defend what you do, then there is always a certain truth in the question.

The Obabamweek poll is simply another example of the magazine trying to act as an extension of the messiah's campaign.The only people who put any credibility in it are his supporters, most of whom are credulous by definition

If a polling organization has an agenda it can generate whatever numbers it want to support it. Newsweek has been so pro-Obama all credibility is gone. Simply by polling more black will change the numbers.

People want to bet on a winner, and the more a candidate can be made to look so, the better. Perception can become reality.

Bloomberg also has a strong pro-obama approach so you two are peas in a pod.

I will go with RCP averages which now show 6.9, a bit of a drop from a few days ago.

All that matters is that everyone shows up to vote or votes absentee. Two thirds of Americans want to change course and with an Obama presendency, changes to correct all Bush's blunders will begin.

The reality is that there's no "consequences" to saying, "Yes, I'll vote for Obama" in June. In November, however, there will be consequences and that's when these polls move. In the fall, voters have to consider who's been tested, who's got experience, who's being straight, who will protect my family. And I think most (if not all) of those favor John McCain. Democrats have nominated the most inexperienced major party candidate in modern history--a risky move in my opinion.

I doubt Obama will ever have numbers like 25-30 % over McCain for the simple fact that race is still and will remain a factor. He will figure out a way to get the majority of battleground states and seriously challenge in states such as Georgia, North Carolina, and Arkansas (with Clinton help), which will earn him a substantial victory in November.

But, why would you do a poll where the sample of Dems is almost twice as large as the number of Republicans?

Anyone else finding it ironic that the same neocons calling people liars over polls, are the same ones who called others unpatriotic for not drinking the WMD kool-aid?

No one except Obama supporters believe anything that is published by Newsweek anymore. What a shame, I used to enjoy reading Newsweek. Now that I know how you disregard the facts, I can't enjoy any of your articles. Your poll is not just wrong...it is out of the park. Senator Obama is losing support, not gaining it and for a poll not to be able to capture that just plainly disqualifies the pollster. The more we know him, the more he loses.

I do not subscribe to Newsweek but my New Jersey paper, The Star-Ledger, gives me enough of the leftist liberal slant that it is laughable. Thank god, I mean thank goodness, the paper has a decent sports section.