A Great Unpopular Idea

There would, of course, be costs. Reform will force some industries to downsize or close, although more industries will expand. The adjustment will also bring social costs; for some people and some communities, the transition would be difficult. Yet across the board, the benefits of a successful Doha round are likely to be hundreds of times higher than these costs.

The fact that completing the Doha round would increase global wealth is unique. No other measure that we studied could achieve this. So more free trade is the only step that would help finance other top investments endorsed by the Copenhagen Consensus panel, including the top choice, fighting the "hidden hunger" problem of malnutrition. For example, providing micronutrients—particularly vitamin A and zinc—to 80 percent of the 140 million or so undernourished children in the world would require a commitment of just $60 million annually, a small fraction of the billions that would be generated by a successful Doha round. And the investment in combating malnutrition would more than pay for itself: the economic gains from improved productivity and a lower burden on the health system would eventually clear $1 billion a year.

It is interesting to contrast global skepticism about free trade with the support for expensive, inefficient methods to combat global warming. For example, spending to reduce climate change by cutting carbon emissions was ranked the lowest priority by the Copenhagen Consensus expert panel, because it costs an awful lot but achieves very little. As it turns out, the impact of passing Doha is several times more positive than combating global warming.

While citizens around the world have rallied around a number of the global problems analyzed by the Copenhagen Consensus, free trade doesn't get its fair share of attention. It's simply not a sexy issue. There are few celebrity campaigners calling on politicians to sort out the Doha round.

Which is too bad. Fear and a lack of understanding about the implications of free trade leave the planet at risk of missing out on the extraordinary benefits it offers. Free trade is not only good for big corporations or for job growth. It is just plain good for everybody.

Lomborg is the author of “The Skeptical Environmentalist” and “Cool It,” head of the Copenhagen Consensus Center and adjunct professor at Copenhagen Business School.

© 2008