Candidates Think Flip-Flopping is the Only Way to Win Elections

Candidates who speak their mind often regret it. A casual bit of frankness can be hung around a candidate's neck like a badge of shame. Many months ago, McCain remarked, honestly, that he didn't know much about economics. As the economy heads south, he is routinely reminded of his candor. With reason, the candidates blame the press for playing gotcha. Reporters (including this one) are hypocrites. They implore candidates to speak their mind—and then punish them for committing "gaffes," defined by columnist Michael Kinsley as "when a politician tells the truth." The press lives for conflict, and technology has merely quickened the game. Before YouTube and the Internet, candidates could get away with saying one thing at a private fund-raiser and another at a public speech. No longer, as Obama discovered when, at a session supposedly closed to the press, he told some San Francisco donors that the working-class voters of Pennsylvania are "bitter" and "cling" to God and guns. (In the audience was a "citizen journalist" with a tape recorder.) Campaigns now all have "war rooms" primed for "rapid response." Obama, who once seemed to try to float above the fray, was burned by his slow response to the Reverend Wright flap. His campaign now has a Web site called fightthesmears.com to set the record straight. Sen. John Kerry, in an appearance with Obama this spring, counseled that his campaign hadn't fought back aggressively enough against the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth in 2004.

But it's possible to overlearn the lessons of the Swift Boat attack. In the end, Kerry did not lose because he had been Swift-Boated, but because, in the eyes of many voters, he seemed like a phony. "He was so handled that he looked completely scripted and canned, never seemed to be talking from his heart," says Lichtman. The campaigns are perfectly aware that the candidate needs to appear authentic to voters, and that there is a risk of getting caught up in petty name-calling. "I think this is a campaign dance," says Robert Gibbs, Obama's communications director. "It's the beginning of the silly season. But we have to make sure that we continue to talk about and focus on the issues that are important to people and not get caught up in the back-and-forth."

So here's an issue that matters: energy independence. Outside of war, democracies are notoriously poor at sacrificing in the short term for long-term gain. Yet that is precisely what must happen if America is to begin to wean itself from foreign oil. Obama actually has a long-term plan that could move the country toward energy independence and (though he downplays it) require some sacrifice. But for the last week, he has mostly engaged in taking potshots at McCain, who has been proposing new (and maybe gimmicky) ideas, like a $300 million reward for a cheaper and more efficient car battery. Offshore drilling is not the best energy plan; there are surely better ideas. But the only successful plan will be based on trade-offs and compromise. It is foolish to remove offshore drilling from the bargaining table because that would kill the dealmaking before it could even begin. Explaining this would require a straightforward and painful discussion of the sacrifices and uncertainties needed to face a tremendous challenge. Voters might even appreciate the honesty.

Answer: True

With Holly Bailey, Sarah Kliff, Michael Isikoff, Richard Wolffe and Suzanne Smalley

© 2008