Errors en Español

The campaign did give us support for one claim in the ad, a line saying that "this trade agreement would create almost 5,000 new jobs." That prediction, however, comes from a group promoting the agreement, and it doesn't really support what the ad says. Enterprise Florida, a nonprofit partnership between business leaders and state government that promotes economic development in the state, estimated in 2006 that a trade agreement with Colombia could lead to an "additional 4,483 jobs" in the state. That's actually closer to 4,000 jobs than to 5,000. Even the 4,483 figure is suspect. For one thing, it is an estimate only of jobs gained from increased exports, without any offset for jobs possibly lost. Furthermore, a more recent report from the International Trade Commission found that the trade agreement was likely to have "minimal to no effect on output or employment for most sectors in the U.S. economy."

We take no stance on the trade agreement itself. But voters should not be misled by the fanciful figures and bad math in this ad.

Republished with permission from factcheck.org.

Update, July 9: After we posted this article, the McCain campaign belatedly supplied us with figures they said would back up their ad's claims. They don't.

While the ad says that "three-quarters of Florida's exports are with Latin America," the McCain campaign points to figures from Enterprise Florida  that count goods and services that simply pass through the state on their way from somewhere in the U.S. (or even other countries) to a location abroad. Similarly, the numbers the campaign used for Florida's total exports to Latin America and Colombia's ranking as an export market represent all goods that went through Florida, regardless of where they came from. None of the figures refer only to goods or services that originated in Florida, which is what we think any reasonable person would take the term "Florida's exports" to mean. As Enterprise Florida analyst Stuart Doyle confirmed, these exports "originate in Florida or they can originate in a different state and are exported through one of [Florida's] two custom districts, which are Tampa and Miami."

Enterprise Florida also lists the Department of Commerce figures that we cited, calling them "Florida-origin export data." Doyle told us that they represent "Florida goods going to other countries." That's the measure of "exports" used by the Department of Commerce.

Sources
"Foreign Trade Statistics: State Exports for Florida." U.S. Census Bureau Web site. Accessed 3 July 2008.

Issenberg, Sasha. "McCain Knits Trade, Security Issues: Foreign Trips Fit His Strategy." The Boston Globe, 7 July 2008.

Mason, Jeff. "McCain Arrives in Mexico for Free Trade Push." The Boston Globe, 2 July 2008.

McCain, John. "McCain: Colombia FTA Benefits U.S." Latin Business Chronicle, 20 May 2008.

Press Release: "John McCain 2008 Launches New Spanish Radio Ad: 'Colombia Trade.' " Earned Media Web site, accessed 3 July 2008.

Rohter, Larry. "McCain Heads Today for Colombia, Where Adviser Has Long Had Ties." The New York Times, 1 July 2008.

Trade Stats Express—State Export Data: "2007 NAICS Total All Merchandise Exports From Florida." U.S. Department of Commerce Web site, accessed 3 July 2008.

Trade Stats Express—State Export Data: "NAICS Total All Merchandise 2007 Exports From Florida to Latin America and Caribbean." U.S. Department of Commerce Web site, accessed 3 July 2008.

with Justin Bank

© 2008