AN ARABIAN SPRING

The raucous noises of newfound freedom ricocheted through the late-night streets of Lebanon's capital last week. Car horns blared, a cappella renditions of the national anthem erupted, ecstatic teenagers danced and shouted and waved every red and white Lebanese flag--or red and white anything else--they could get their hands on. The Lebanese government, largely chosen and controlled by Syria, had fallen in the face of their protests. Now they wanted the Syrians themselves to get the hell out of the country, ending 15 years of overt occupation and three decades of covert manipulation. When Syrian President Bashar al-Assad announced on Saturday that he'd pull out partway, that satisfied nobody in the Beirut street. "He's lying!" said 19-year-old student Francois Mitri, holding the flag atop a red Mustang. "We want Syria out. We want our freedom!"

Beirut felt like the heart of a Middle East shaking to life in a convulsion of newfound expectations. For people in the region, the last few weeks have been ones of wonderment. In January, more than 8.5 million Iraqis overcame the aftermath of a 35-year dictatorship, the humiliations of living under a badly planned American occupation and the ferocious terrorism of a relentless rebellion to vote, precisely because they wanted to put all that behind them. In the Palestinian territories, elections for a successor to the late Yasir Arafat were a model of civic order that the erratic Arafat might never have tolerated. In Egypt, President Hosni Mubarak surprised his countrymen by announcing that some opposition candidates may be allowed to run for the country's top office. And even Saudi Arabia's medieval-style monarchy is holding an unprecedented series of municipal elections.

Each experiment with freedom is helping to build democratic momentum, and after so much bad news out of the Middle East, there's suddenly so much good that the Bush administration finds itself basking in vindication. The old arguments for invading Iraq--the nonexistent weapons of mass destruction, Saddam Hussein's ephemeral ties to Al Qaeda--have faded into the background. "Democratization in the Middle East is the cornerstone of what Washington wants to achieve in the region," says one U.S. official. Amid the daily violence of Iraq, the anger and recriminations of erstwhile allies and the doomsday threats of terrorist enemies, President George W. Bush has found clarity by reaching for the broadest and most appealing theme of history: the march of freedom. Since his second Inaugural Address in January, the message has been hammered home in one speech after another. "We must be on the side of democratic reformers, we must encourage democratic movements and support democratic transitions in practical ways," Bush said on his European tour last month.

In fact, expectations are rising much faster now than anyone anticipated, encouraged by White House rhetoric but triggered by uncontrollable events like the death of Arafat in November and the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri in February. Even in Iraq, it was Ayatollah Ali Sistani, not the Americans, who insisted on elections sooner rather than later. "When you look at the streets you realize we're just playing catch-up," says one State Department official. "The people are pushing for this on their own." So the administration has taken an approach that is flexible and, in Bush's word, "practical." Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice "knows how genies get out of bottles and what to do with them once they're out," says another senior State Department official. "We know the sweep of history, and we're going to do everything we can to help it along."

Yet as Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld remarked while Baghdad was being looted in 2003, "freedom's untidy." Those who know history know the fall of the Berlin wall was followed by the carnage of the Balkans, the slaughter in the Caucasus. And nowhere is disorder more dangerous than in the Middle East.

Already in Iraq, the level of violence has surged to pre-election levels. Last week saw the most devastating car-bomb attack in the history of the war, with at least 122 Iraqis killed in the town of Al Hillah. When Italian negotiators finally won the release of hostage journalist Giuliana Sgrena, they found themselves fired on by American forces at a checkpoint on the way to the airport. One of the negotiators was killed and Sgrena was wounded. If nothing else, the incident showed how chaotic and mean the streets of Iraq remain. What is the elected Iraqi regime doing about this? Nothing. Almost six weeks after the polls closed, the Iraqis have yet to form a new government.