Glow Fading?

T BOONE PICKENS for President.
The man with the plan.

CURRENT LEADERS IN CONGRESS: guilty of emitting DEADLY GAS!

Hey Newsweek: If you polled only Republicans, the poll would show McCain wining!

That would not prove anything except that you have no friggin clue about what you're doing when you took this poll. Look for Newsweek to oversample Republicans even more in the next poll to create a storyline that McCain is wining.

Is anyone on the right willing to put their money where their mouth is and bet me that the % of voters id'ing themselves as Republicans and the % of voters id'ing themselves as Democrats on election day in November will be equal as Newsweek's sample has it in this poll?

Every reputable poll has Democrats will 10% + advantage in party idenification. Sorry to destroy your bogus narrative Newsweek, but you dropped the ball with this junk poll, big time!

What a difference asking different target groups can make.

Kemp Honecutt, you are 100% correct! Only ignorant readers are unable to see through Newsweek''s phoney poll. I still think our elections are FIXED by certain powers who can make a president. [ and, of course, control him].

Good morning -

It is very troubling the way Newsweek both crafted and is presenting the recent Presidential poll. The story line is that support for Obama has dropped from 15% to 3%. This story line completely ignores the demographics of the two polls.
First, let's look at the party affiliation makeup:
In the June Newsweek poll, the sample is split 26% Republican, 38% Democrat, and 36% Independent.
In the July poll, the sample is split 32% Republican, 32% Democrat, and 36% Independent,
This represents a GOP swing of 12% (6% more Republicans, 6% fewer Democrats). Amazingly, the two polls show a 12% swing toward McCain. This is no coincidence, and this makeup is patently absurd. A Pew Research Center survey in March found that 27% self-identify as Republicans and 36% self-identify as Democrats (which leaves 37% to identify themselves as Green, Independent, etc). Splitting this Newsweek poll sample with an equal number of Republican and Democrat respondents is guarantees a swing to McCain. Note that the June poll party distribution is just about spot-on. The question is why did Newsweek change the sample so radically?
Now, look at the racial makeup:
In the June poll, the sample is 84% white.
In the July poll, the sample is 88% white.
A 4% swing toward a whiter sample certainly affects Obama's support. About 68% of the current US population is white, so while both of these percentages are extremely high, let's assume that a higher percentage of whites vote compared to other races. Why in one month did the % of white respondents increase by 4%?

Finally, the age distribution:
In the June poll 19% of the registered voters are under 40, 39% are between 40 and 59, and 42% are 60 or older.
In the July poll 17% of the registered voters are under 40, 38% are between 40 and 59, and 45% are 60 or older.
It's no secret that the younger the electorate being polled, the stronger Obama's support is. Shifting the July sample by adding 3% to the 60 and older group would predetermine yet more of a shift to McCain.
In the younger, more racially diverse and more Democratic poll, Obama was leading by 15 points. In the older, whiter, and 50%-50% political party poll, Obama is leading McCain by only 3 points. A trained aardvark could have predicted that swing, yet Newsweek and the rest of the media are treating this as a shocking drop of support for Barack Obama.
Numbers can be interpreted many ways. However, it's the media's responsibility when they generate and discuss opinion polls to present them accurately, without bias, and by fully disclosing sampling differences that affect the outcome. None of that was done with this poll.

I would expect an entity such as Newsweek to have a little more journalistic integrity, rather than stirring up issues based on brutally flawed sampling that generates entirely false premises.

Kemp Honeycutt
Houston, TX

The liberal, left wing media picked Obama for you, made him a rock star, didn???t do their research, sold the public a bill of goods, and then all of us found out he was the same old thing repackaged as new, different and more expensive. Marketing 101.

Davole, Match - Time - Again.....let the (h) oops begin.

McCain's 3 Pointers and Barack's 4 Point Conversion.

A few days before one - on - one - hoop, McCain went to see his doctor for a physical check - up. McCain's doctor told him he was in superb condition for the game, I must also let you know that you're an exceptional man; McCain, why is that Doc? believe it or not sir most men have two balls but you have three. McCain, no wonder I have been shooting those three pointers the way I do. The next day Mccain met barack for their One -on - One Hoop; McCain in bold and fresh mood, Barack I have good news for you; You know between the two of us put together we have five balls; Barack replied, you mean you only have one; McCain in a dejected voice, sorry I forgot about those 4 pointers.

Sunday, July 13, 2008
For the second straight day, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows that the race for the White House is tied. Sunday???s numbers show Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 43% of the vote. When "leaners" are included, the two candidates are tied at 46%. For most of the past month-and-a-half, Obama has led McCain by approximately five percentage points. It will take a few more days to determine whether this recent tightening of the race reflects real change or is merely statistical noise.

NOBAMA!!!

Newsweekbhg....you talk about whites being uneducated when YOU'RE the one that can't even spell scary right.

If you want to see who will win the election go to http://www.newslampoon.com.

Uneducated whites put Bush in office and kept him there. America is a scarry place.

I'm sure that Princeton Survey Associates understands that sampling error is included in the reported statistical "Margin of Error" which is typically a few points and would not provide additional explaination for the difference between polls. So the possibilities are: a real change of opinion, a flawed polling plan, flawed executuion of the poll, intentional or unintentional bias in sample selection or some other error factor such as the Bradley effect. Finally with so many people dropping their land lines in favor of cell phones it may no longer be possible to have a statistically valid sample in a telephone survey.

It's great to see that, as time goes on, more and more Americans can see what an empty suited hypocritical pandering lying afro centric Marxist Barry Hussein O'bama is. Certainly he is talking out of both sides of his mouth right now. And where is th emedia telling the truth about how much more eliminating the Bush tax cuts will cost MIDDLE CLASS Americans? A couple of THOUSAND dollars per family, that's what!

Newsweek is a liberal RAG they had every Republican President losing in their Polls they had Kerry winning over Bush on Election day by 10 points - When they take Polls they should try calling Republicans in their phone Polls maybe they might get a better TRUE number maybe with a 50/50 survey not the 70 Democrat 30 Republican calls they are using now-

Newsweek is a liberal RAG they had every Republican President losing in their Polls they had Kerry winning over Bush on Election day by 10 points - When they take Polls they should try calling Republicans in their phone Polls maybe they might get a better TRUE number maybe with a 50/50 survey not the 70 Democrat 30 Republican calls they are using now-