Who Says Less Troops?

Barack Obama is taking heat for hinting that he might refine his 16-month timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq. But a forthcoming Pentagon-sponsored report will recommend an even steeper drawdown in less time, NEWSWEEK has learned. If adopted, the 300-page report by a defense analysis group at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif., could transform the debate about Iraq in the presidential election.

Expected to be completed in about a month, it will recommend that U.S. forces be reduced to as few as 50,000 by the spring of 2009, down from about 150,000 now. The strategy is based on a major handoff to the increasingly successful Iraqi Army, with platoon-size U.S. detachments backing the Iraqis from small outposts, with air support. The large U.S. forward operating bases that house the bulk of U.S. troops would be mostly abandoned, and the role of Special Forces would increase.

The report's conclusions have been discussed inside Secretary Robert Gates's Defense Policy Board, a body of outside experts. And they've found favor with some former members of the Iraq Study Group, such as former White House chief of staff Leon Panetta. "That's basically the approach we thought made sense—embedding some of our forces at smaller outposts, transferring major combat to the Iraqis," says Panetta.

Like the Study Group, this report also calls for a regional diplomatic effort complementing negotiations with the Iraqi tribes, which echoes the previous recommendations of such analysts as John Arquilla, a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School. "Even with a small leavening of American troops the Iraqis perform quite well," he says.

The biggest problem: Iraq commander Gen. David Petraeus, who oversaw the surge, is said to oppose the recommendations, according to a Defense contractor who is privy to the discussions. Asked about the report, Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman told NEWSWEEK that Gates "feels the most important military advice he gets is from his commanders on the ground." As the next head of Central Command, Petraeus will soon have responsibility for Afghanistan and Pakistan too, which could change his views on troop deployments and the new report. Spokesman Col. Steve Boylan says Petraeus "is focused on Iraq at this point and will continue to be."

Editor's Note: In a Periscope item in the July 21 issue, Newsweek reported that a forthcoming Pentagon-sponsored report by the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif., will recommend a steep drawdown of troops in Iraq "to as few as 50,000 by the spring of 2009, down from about 150,000 now." In fact, this is the personal recommendation of only one of the three principal authors of the report, John Arquilla, a professor at the school. According to Hy Rothstein, another author of the report, the final conclusions have not yet been written and "are not likely to offer a single recommendation but will assess the costs, benefits and risks associated with multiple, responsible options." Arquilla, asked about the discrepancy, said that his recommendation was still a minority view but that he intended to have it represented in the report.

In the same article, Newsweek quoted a defense contractor as saying that Iraq commander Gen. David Petraeus "is said to oppose the recommendations." According to Col. Steven Boylan, Petraeus's spokesman, the general "was not aware of any study being written by the Naval Postgraduate School" and therefore it "is inaccurate and misleading to state that Gen Petraeus is opposed to recommendations that have yet to be completed."

The story also reported that the study had been discussed inside the Pentagon's Defense Policy Board, but Geoff Morrell, spokesman for Defense Secretary Robert Gates, says there have been no such formal discussions.

Newsweek regrets the errors.

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