Advice for Obama

The second source of disillusionment will be Obama himself. Once inaugurated, the Savior & Redeemer will be president of the über-power that is the United States. He will be more multilateralist than was Bush in his first term, and he will speak more softly. But he will still carry the biggest stick on earth. Germans might want to read the foreign-policy chapter in Obama's book "Hoffnung wagen" ("The Audacity of Hope"). There are paragraphs in there that are pure Bush doctrine. On pre-emption: "We have the right to take unilateral military action to eliminate an imminent threat to our security." On American power: "There will be times when we must again play the role of the world's reluctant sheriff. This will not change—nor should it."

Obama can change the tune of U.S. foreign policy. But he can't get rid of the brass and the kettledrums, so when he visits, he might gently prepare Berlin for the dissonances to come. Such as when, for instance, the next president asks Berlin for more combat troops in Afghanistan, where the Bundeswehrwould rather drill wells and build schools.

Joffeis publisher-editor of Die Zeit in Hamburg. His latest book is"Überpower: The Imperial Temptation of America"(2006).

Israel: Let's Make a Deal
By Tom Segev

When Barack Obama arrives in Israel, he'll find that people here are as hungry for change as his supporters back home.

The senator may be surprised to discover how Americanized Israelis have become in recent decades: the American Dream is now a central element of their identity. Most Israelis feel deeply dependent on America and will not risk major policy differences with the United States. That means Obama may find them open to a new, more rational approach to the Middle East's conflicts.

Obama has declared his support for Israel, and most Israelis believe him: they assume that no one can get elected president of the United States today unless he or she is willing to put Israel's security near the top of Washington's list of priorities. For many years, however, U.S. politicians have confused "support for Israel" with support for the Israeli government. There's a difference, and Obama may be surprised to discover that Israelis are actually much more reasonable than the hawkish parties who keep their coalition government in office—or than the inflexible pro-Israel lobby in Washington.

Few Israelis ever believed that the approach of the Bush administration or Ehud Olmert's government, which included fictions such as "the Roadmap" and the promise to resolve the conflict with the Palestinians by the end of this year, would get very far. Israelis are much more realistic. They don't believe that full peace can be achieved at this time. But many of them are ready to take steps that would make life more livable for both them and the Palestinians. Those include lifting the siege on Gaza and putting an end to at least some of the human-rights violations in the West Bank. Opinion polls also show that most Israelis support direct talks with Hamas.

Obviously, when Obama visits Israel, he'll hear a great deal about Iran and Syria. Most Israelis know as much about Iran today as Americans knew about Iraq prior to the war. But when the president of any country, let alone one as powerful as Iran, threatens to wipe them off the globe, they don't take that lightly. Not after the Holocaust, another central element of Israeli identity. Even Iran's threats, however, can lead to something positive: they're encouraging many Israelis to favor peace with Syria in exchange for control of the Golan Heights (which Israel won in 1967). Hammering out such an agreement will require friendly but firm guidance from Washington, as well as possible security guarantees. But Obama may be surprised to discover how little pressure on Israel it will take to get there.

Segevis an Israeli historian and a columnist for Haaretz.

Jordan: Take the Lead
By Marwan Muasher

Welcome to the Middle East, Senator Obama—a region marred by conflict and instability and one that needs help urgently. I hope you will take this opportunity to begin a candid dialogue and to learn about the area's aspirations. As you rightly articulated, the United States' approach to the Middle East needs to be reoriented. America shouldn't continue to focus first on Iraq and Iran. Resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict should be the top priority.

When you get here you will witness firsthand the growing radicalization and the mounting frustration and hopelessness of the Arab Street. These ills owe to the continuation of the Arab-Israeli conflict and political, social and economic systems that are in dire need of reform. You will feel the people's anger at America—not at the American people or the American way of life, but at America's policies in the region. Most Arabs view the United States today through the prism of the Palestinian-Israeli struggle and they see Washington applying double standards: preaching democracy but ignoring Palestinian aspirations, pushing for reform but hesitant to embrace its outcome.

Senator Obama, the old view taken by American politicians—that they can't want peace more than the parties themselves—no longer holds. Washington must take the lead if it is to remove a major cause of frustration and cut support for radical elements, which try to prove that only violence yields results. A two-state solution to the conflict would not be a sellout of Israel. In fact, if such a solution isn't implemented soon, Israelis will be forced to confront a ticking time bomb, where the Arab population under Israel's control comes to outnumber the Jewish one. The alternative to peace—an indefinite occupation and continuing violence—is not sustainable.