Someone once said if your unemployed it's a recession if I'm unemployed it's a depression.
Despite parallels with the early 1930s, to use the D word now would be total overkill.
Someone once said if your unemployed it's a recession if I'm unemployed it's a depression.
I did not grow up in underpriveledged circumstances, nor am I miserable. I'm also reasonably well positioned if the economy continues to go in the direction I expect it to. That said, the don't-worry-be-happy approach won't solve the challenges the country is facing, although life as a bobble head must be blissful. For the last 10-15 years, any time there was a report on economic growth, they mentioned how it was driven by consumer spending. Hmmmm...but weren't real wages falling during that whole period? So...what drove the economy? Home equity. Hmmmm...how did that work out? And, by the way, now that the equity has been sucked out of 80% (my guess) of the houses in this country, what will fuel economic growth when the downturrn starts to level off? From an economic standpoint, I don't think either of the candidates the MSM and major corporations have blessed us with undo the damage that has been done to the economy in the short term. It will take decades.
It willl get much, much, much worse, and then we will be justified in calling it a Depression.
What else is for sale in America....our state parks...well we have already given 2 million tech jobs to India at a cost of 50 billion dollars, which would have kept us paying our mortgages. What's next. Americans unemployment is probably REALISTICALLY at 20+ percent. Thanks HR and CIO's, you got your $20,000 bonus for saving the company money.... Great Work!!
What are the REAL unemployment numbers - including those that have just stopped because there is no work to look for? What about the UNDEREMPLOYED? THE UNDER-INSURED? What are the REAL inflation numbers? How did housing skyrocket, while incomes are FLAT? The government and its affiliate agencies seem like PR agencies touting 'the best possible' instead of REALITY.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/rothbard/rothbard183.html
It's going to get bad. There's no money in the coffers. America is broke and so are many Americans. The spend and borrow Republicans have bequeathed debt to generations of Americans.
What a bunch of wishful thinking. The worst thing Bernanke could have done was cut interest rates. The middle class is screwed and the dollar is on its way to being totally worthless, like this article.
When I had to take my economics class in college, I disagreed with the professor on several issues. Just like that professor, who ever these economists are, they must be totally brain dead. But then 99% of the reporters and journalists at Newsweek are brain dead too, or they are in their rapture over their "God, Obama", that they can't see whats really happening.
Who pays these economists to make these outrageous statements of the economy? They must be living in another America in another time dimension, they sure as hell don't live in this America!!
One has to wonder just what these economists are smoking.
The whole concept of "trickle down economics is fudamentally flawed and when it started to eliminate the middle class it became death incarnate.
This economy has a long way to go and for every job lost, for every price increase that decreases the consumer buying power, for every illegal taking the jobs that remain in this country the middle class continues to shrink. and the economy continues it's downward spiral.
When we hear that for an unemployed worker to stay in the middle class in our "new economy" he will have to go back to school and get a degree and become a lawyer? a IT professional? Hmmm economist would be a good career move for a 40 yo unemployed auto worker.
But the fact is the bar has been raised too high for the middle class to survive if we continue on this course of trickle down economics as McCain will do the downward spiral will continue.
This country has managed to survive an administration that has drained the Treasury and whose only interest is how to continue it beyond the next election,
But the lose of the middle class is only the tip of the iceburg,
America won WW2 in 4 years because of the manufacturing capacity and the strength of the people.
Now it takes 5 years to develop an IED resistant vehicle and deploy it in Iraq, Still not deployed in Afgahanistan, some 800 are scheduled for the first of the year and a portion of those are being built in South Africa.
We have come a long way all in the wrong direction.
Samuelson is correct, at this very moment in time we aren't in a depression. Doesn't mean that the stage isn't set for an epic adjustment either. I deal with Wall Street hedge traders as part of my business and as of 6 months ago they didn't even have a recession built into their pricing models. The stock and bond markets are reaching for good news and reacting accordingly by fluctuating wildly on a daily basis. This has the smell of fear and I can assure you that there are many more shoes to drop before we're through. Nobody is discussing the commercial mortgage securitization issues, which are likely to dwarf the housing crisis and will probably cause many more bank failures as loans that have been securitized and re-cut into derivative loan investments go bad. Hold on for the ride and remember....cash is king so start hoarding now.
Some of you poor souls on these comment boards are so dead set on being miserable and having a cynical attitude toward all that life has to offer. I grew up in a single-parent household in the late '70s and early '80s. We used food stamps and other government help, but only when absolutely necessary. Yes, times were hard and we didn't have a lot of extras. But we never had the kind of attitudes heard here. Good life....bad life...happy life...sad life...what you possess or don't possess won't change that. Sorry to disappoint you, but your circumstances aren't what's making you miserable.
Facing reality does not equate misery, and just because you've experienced some hardships in your life doesn't make you a genius in economics. I grew up in the same circumstances you did and I am not poor today, but I'll be damned if I ever get so out of touch with people like you are. The problem is with people like you fail to recognize that our government under Bush has run up the deficit, have bad economic and energy policies, and fail to listen to anyone with military or diplomatic experience. That's why our country is going south. If you were a patriot you wouldn't just sit there and put your fingers in your ears while our foreign relations get destroyed, our credit and real estate markets are crashing, and we're facing inflation at the same time the dollar is getting devalued. While we're not at depression levels yet, you'd have to be a fool not to recognize that higher cost of fuel combined with these problems are slowly destroying our economy. There were people like you before the Great Depression too and there's one word for them. FOOLS!
Well, nrgindependece, I was miserable, cynical toward life's many bounties, sad and depressed until just a moment ago when I read your post. Now, I feel upbeat, optimistic and just can't wait 'til tomorrow to see just how wonderful that life can really be. It's just like that old deal where you wished you had a pair of shoes until you saw a man with no feet. Seeing how hard that your life was. Heck, I've got it made. If you were running for office, I'd send you a donation.
You'd make a really good public officeholder, ngrindependece. Lincoln got a lot of miles out of that log cabin hardship. No paper, either. Had to write with charcoal on something to practice his writing. Lots of people came from poverty to achieve greatness. And you are an uplifting sort of person. Straight talker. Let us know how spoiled we are. We need that from our leaders. Makes us strong. We won't be miserable any more, now that you've told us how the cow ate the cabbage. We apologize for being so spoiled and ungrateful. Run for office. We can't wait to donate some of our spoils to your campaign.
You could be a senator, nrgindependece, just like Phil Gramm. He helped us, too. Told us that we are just a bunch of whiners. Boy, we needed that. Real refreshing. Good old fashioned straight talking cowboy from Texas. Just like Bush. Cowboy from Texas. Straight talker. Nucular personality.
"In June, unemployment was 5.5 percent"
I'd be interested in knowing where this statistic is from & how it was calculated. In San Diego, unemployment is currently reported at 6.5%, which one could easily double to account for the Bush Administration's revamping of the method of calculation & payment of unemployment (for those of you who don't know, unemployment used to cover those who were laid off for twice the current length of time, and now, once you don't receive an unemployment check, you don't get counted as "unemployed").
"Overall corporate profits are still running at a near-record annual rate of $1.5 trillion"
If you count the profits being made by the Oil companies, of course there is truth in this number.... I bet it's less than HALF that if you take out the Oil companies' profits. Many businesses are going under.
I'm not familiar with Samuelson, but he sounds like a Republican shill to me.
With all the recent layoffs from car companies, airlines, and banks ranging in the thousands, I think the unemployment #'s have yet to catch up to reality. Give it another month or 2 and I'm pretty sure we're going to see 6 to 7 percent unemployment. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 8 before the end of the year either.
Wow - an amazing story! Samuelson doesn't feel any pain! And neither do his neighbors!
Phew! Never mind the 15% structural unemployment, our massive trade deficit, our overpriced housing, our horrible national debt, the collapse of middle class incomes. Samuelson feels none of that, and the GDP is not going down, so shut up, you whiners!
Another "Cheer Up, America" article from a conservative economist in the Greenblatt tradition. Just remember that it was Greenblatt who played a big role in getting us into the real estate/banking disaster we are in now.
COMMENT TO CITRON16
MCAIN DOESNT FIT THOSE SHOE HE IS TOO OLD MABE HE WILL DIE SOON! OBAMA WILL WIN THE ELECTION . HIS ECONOMIC PLAN WAY BETTER THAN OLD FART MCAIN'S PLAN. MCAIN WILL STILL COUNTINUE BUSH'S ECONOMIC POLICY. ANY ONE WHO SUPPORT MCAIN I HOPE YOU LOOSE YOU JOB HOME AND I HOPE YOU HAVE YOUR FAMILY MEMEBERS DRAFTED TO WAR, IF HE IS LUCY ENOUGH TO GET ELECTED. OBAMA 08,12
Comment to Mariadcruze: I relly don't like either candidate, all the choices the democrats and republicans had during this primary and we end up with these 2. McCain is older, you say he could die, people of all ages sometimes die! Thats why we have V. P. Even Jesse Jackson who in Chicago is well respected with the affrican american people has turned against Obama!! The media is bias for Obama especially MSMBC, Americans will make up their own minds who to vote for, no matter how the media tries to get everyone to vote for Obama! But since we are down to choosing between McCain and Obama I choose the lesser of two evils I will vote for McCain!! The DNC should have picked a better candidate, if you really think about it, everyone thought after Bush there would be a democratic president. But the DNC blew it!! Any other democrat would have won by a landslide. Obama is the wrong candidate because people don't like his past!!!
The Republicans are fiscally conservative?!! Are you f**ing kiddin me? Bush inherited a budget surplus and turned it into the nations highest deficit and a record $10 trillion in debt. And did this money go to underprivileged Americans? No it all went to the Saudis, Iraqis, Russians and Chinese.
According to JohnMcCain and his economic advisors, the economic problems are in 'our imagination' . Today a lady in Massachussetts just committed suicide because of these imaginary economic problems. These things only used to happen in third world countries and shows where America is going.
I cannot believe 40% of Americans still want to vote for McCain. Sometimes I wish they really get their wish and have another stupid Republican in the office then even God wont be able to save this country.
If you want a Democrat in the White House contact the Congressional DNC office holders and tell them to creat conditions for an Obama win!
They are not doing this simple thing (at this time) and may not bother at all!
The conditions for an Obama win are a Congress that has much higher approval than it does now! The DNC --in control of Congress-- CAN improve it's approval to the American people!
The reason they have not taken the steps yet is a matter of CHOICE! They do want to abandon the the DNCs' Americans Suck First Campaign! Which requires true believers to believe America is in another terrible depression..ohhh...bew whooo....sniff.
But the dems in the congress won't abandon this warped campaign and they DO NOT listen to constituents as they tell YOU what's best for you. Call them and see!
Giving up their America Sucks First Campaign is too much to give up for Democrats in the Congress and in their view...their seats are "safe." So,screw Obama! The puppeteer does not respect the puppet!
If the democrats and the DNC really wanted a democrat in the White House then maybe they should have picked a better candidate!!! Obama and his conections with Rev. Wright, Farrakan, Ayers, Rezko, and then rest is a problem for many people. No matter how the media tries to tell people it does not matter, it does!!! No matter how the media worships Obama that does not mean people are going to listen to the media and vote for him!!! Not even Jesse Jackson likes Obama and he's from Chicago where Obama has lived for the past 20 years, Obamas wife is best of friends with Jesse Jacksons daughter, their familys have known each other for a long time. Jesse Jackson going against Obama is not a good thing for Obama because many Affrican American people do like Jackson because he has always faught for their rights.
The economy is probably not as bad as it seems, the problem is that no matter what Bush and his people try to do, the democratic congress votes against it because they are trying to ensure a democrat wins the White House. Like I said before If the democrats and the DNC wanted to win the White House then they should have nominated a candidate that people would vote for. Obama does not fill those shoes!!!
Us economic looks bleak ahead,this why americans must realise their American Dreams slipping away day by day since depression days.The troubles of mortgage finance giants are pushing up home loan rates to their higest levels in five years.While the us inflation is up since 17 years.the average interest rate.
The average rate for very big,so called 'Jumbo Loans' which cannot be sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was 7.8%,the highest since December 2000.
Loan rates are rising because of concerns in the financial markets about the future of Fannie Mac and Freddie Mac,which own the guarantee nearly half of the nation's US$12 Trillion mortgage markets to foreign bond investor.
The Washington can only try to stablise the Market by adding the cost is being passed on to comsumers via mortagage markets when,the the time US have the highest inflation ,unemployments,when personel income become flactuate.The rate hike is the greatest concern to home owners,whose mortgages required them to pay only the interest on thier lons for the few years.If such borrowers are unable to refinance into lower-cost loans,many of them will face the propects of having to pay both interest and principle at higher,adjustable rates.
Let's me show you example for borrowers with a US$400,000 loan,such a jump could send their monthly payments to US$2,338 from US$1,417 that estimate the mortage payment .Im wondering how on earth the americans going to face this reality of future.
US economy not going to be looks bleak "IF" the Confidence level with foreign fund manager is sinking day to day by removing out billion Fund out from US soil.
Only Obama policy looks much more brighter future for US to bring the confidence back in America compares to any B.S John McCain policy.
American public at large can be excuse for being naive about the facts in US economy, its always been well kept secret till now,Only the few of those in Wall Street,Washington,Banking sector knew all along about this "REAL" danger situations that facing America now.
This all about the reality,vanishing before our own eyes the "CONFIDENCE-IN- AMERICA " which have a deep history ,that rooted since the depression days, slowly GONE the days with the wind when "TRADITIONAL" large foreign Fund managers moving out the"FUND" out of US soil Day by Day .You may blame part of it of drastics of "Political"policy "desicions,washington knew it in early days during their first day in Oval Office .
Administration may have the stringent "LAW' that prevent moving huge fund out.But what law can it "PREVENT" when a country like Japan have a Quake in Japan moving billion back to Japan for restructuring.What can the "LAW" prevent when like the Chinese having the deposit more then US 1.69 trillion in CM bank,ML bank in bond,beside the LOAN multi-billion that they borrowed to Washington,when it's their opportuniy when organising a multi-billion Olympic Event,they have their own huge fund in their respectives countries "BUT" its "JUSTIFY EXCUSES" reasons moving out its fund out of America,The real culprit truth is "LOSING CONFIDENCE" in America .
Who can blame them when the situations now facing America?How much did Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae actual DEBT? The answer is US $5 Trillion and this number kept out from public,do you think US $25 billion tax payer money to be proposes in senate,do think this amount can do much? maybe its worth some effort then nothing.
Im priviledge to has the experience informations,I know someone are watching ,some from banking sector knows what im saying about, lets it be i'hve nothing to hide from the truth,but this TRUTH can benefits the Americans at Large from the lies for years.
Thank you Samualson! The Dreary Democrates in the Congress would prefer to hear economic news square with thier Americans Suck Fisrt campaign in which bad Americans out there are bringing us to "these" depressed times (Sniff whine) and ohhhhhhh.
Of course it will be Americas' achivers who are causing all this missery (whine sniff) according to the campaign. The Big Pitch will be "so we got to elect democrats to fix this!"
The US econmoy is continueing on in its ups and downs, here and there and is durable!
Americans do NOT Suck First and America is a very nice place! It ROCKS! It's the one place you can go where you can be surrounded by AMERICANS! Awesome people!
Thanks for a fair and objective report! it is refreshing to see!
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