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A new poll finds Barack Obama leading John McCain by wide margins among Hispanic voters. But what impact will Latinos have on Election Day?

Campaign 2008: Hispanic Voters
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Needed Support: McCain backers rallied for the candidate at the League of United Latin American Citizens convention in Washington on July 8
 

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There's no way to predict the real impact of Latinos in the 2008 race, but the campaigns are actively courting the voting bloc. In Thursday's poll by the Pew Hispanic Center, 66 percent of registered Hispanic voters say they support Democratic nominee Barack Obama while 23 percent stand behind Republican nominee John McCain. For Obama, the figures solidify the transition of Latino support from Hillary Clinton to his camp. For McCain, they suggest that making real inroads with this group may require a minor miracle. Obama not only has the support of traditionally Democratic Latinos, he also has the backing of 23 percent of Hispanics who identify themselves as Republicans and holds a significant edge among Latino independents. Those numbers have to worry the GOP in battleground states like Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Florida. NEWSWEEK's Jessica Ramirez spoke to Mark Lopez, associate director of the Pew Hispanic Center, about some of the other voter trends in their latest report. Excerpts:

NEWSWEEK: The 39 percent identification edge Democrats hold with Hispanics is larger than it has been at any time this decade. What do you attribute this to?
Mark Lopez:
A part of it is the debate surrounding immigration policy. A part of it is that Latinos think the Democratic Party is more in tune with the issues they care most about. Then there's also a general movement among Latinos, and really all Americans who want some sort of a change, to lean toward the Democratic Party.

More than half of the Hispanics you polled say they voted during primary season. Of those, 72 percent cast a ballot in a Democratic contest and 21 percent in a GOP contest. Are these voting trends at all an indicator of how it might go come November?
Definitely, it's a possibility. There are a couple of things that speak to this. One, a significant number of Latinos are following the election very closely, and that's important. There was also a lot of participation in the primaries on the Democratic side, and I think that was because the race went to the end and it was close. Latinos were especially supportive of a particular candidate, Hillary Clinton. So I think all of this helped to lead to a real push in participation in the primaries. While what could happen in November is uncertain, everything is in place for a good level of turnout, a high level of turnout even.

I noticed 16 percent of primary voters said they had voted for the first time. How key will new Latino voters be?
They could be very key. There's some evidence that there's been a movement among those who are noncitizens to become citizens and register to vote. There are some organizations that have been pursuing that. So it looks like they could play a role. One of the things about Latinos is that they are very young. They will always have a larger share of first-time voters just because there are so many youth.

The movement to register goes back to the immigration debate, right?
Yes, the whole point of the marches in recent times was "march today and vote tomorrow." I think we are seeing at least some of that come to fruition, but it's hard to disentangle that from the other reasons that explain participation.

Among Hispanics, Obama is favored over McCain 3 to 1 on the issues of education, jobs, immigration, health care and cost of living. He is favored 2 to 1 in the areas of Iraq and crime. How did Latinos arrive at this opinion?
We don't have enough information to tell, but Hispanics do say Obama is more attuned to the issues and concerns of the Hispanic community than McCain. I think part of the explanation is that this group tends to lean heavily Democrat, so it's not too big of a surprise that they see a Democratic candidate better positioned to solve their issues than a Republican candidate.

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  • Posted By: haynessemperfi @ 10/18/2008 2:10:54 AM

    PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE TO BE HELD SUNDAY AT COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY

    The Free and Equal Elections Coalition (FREE) and the Columbia Political Union are pleased to announce that a Presidential debate will be held this coming Sunday, October 19th, 2008, on the campus of Columbia University.

    ALL SIX of the Presidential candidates who appear on enough state ballots to acquire the 270 Electoral Votes needed to become President are invited. They are as follows (listed in alphabetical order by affiliation):

    Constitution Party Candidate: Chuck Baldwin
    Democratic Party Candidate: Barack Obama
    Green Party Candidate: Cynthia McKinney
    Independent Candidate: Ralph Nader
    Libertarian Party Candidate: Bob Barr
    Republican Party Can John McCain

    The Columbia Political Union will present the debate from 8:00pm to 10:00pm in the Altschul Auditorium, located at 417 International Affairs Building. The debate will be moderated by Pacifica Radio's Amy Goodman, the host of "Democracy Now!". CSPAN will cover the debate, and live radio broadcasts are expected.

    "The Columbia Political Union is committed to energizing political discourse on Columbia's campus," said Allon Brann, Columbia Political Union Publisher. "As a non-partisan organization, we work to provide students with opportunities to encounter and engage with political ideas across a wide ideological spectrum, and on a wide range of issues."

    "It is with these goals in mind that we have organized this Presidential Debate: to give all candidates-- either within or outside of the political "mainstream"-- the opportunity to speak directly to students about their goals on the issues they deem critical for this country."

    "We have invited all eligible candidates, and it is our sincere hope that all will participate, to ensure the substance and rigor of the dialogue which we believe is crucial at this time."

    Certified letters officially inviting each candidate have been sent to the respective campaigns.

    The Free and Equal Elections Coalition and the Columbia Political Union await the response from the candidates. All candidates' supporters are encouraged to contact the Presidential campaigns and urge them to attend.

    The Columbia Political Union seeks to enhance involvement in the political process, domestic and international, and draw every member of the campus community into an ongoing discussion of political ideas.

    FREE is a coalition of political parties, independent citizens and civic organizations formed to promote free and equal elections in the United States.

    http://www.freeandequal.org/events.php?id=7

    FREEDOM ISN'T FREE

  • Posted By: Jim Johnson @ 10/16/2008 12:51:35 PM

    Obama's view of the future of America - Socialism which is the next step to Communism!!


    Under socialism a ruling class of intellectuals, bureaucrats and social planners decide what people want or what is good for society and then use the coercive power of the State to regulate, tax, and redistribute the wealth of those who work for a living. In other words, socialism is a form of legalized theft.

    The morality of socialism can be summed-up in two words: envy and self-sacrifice. Envy is the desire to not only possess another's wealth but also the desire to see another's wealth lowered to the level of one's own. Socialism's teaching on self-sacrifice was nicely summarized by two of its greatest defenders, Hermann Goering and Bennito Mussolini. The highest principle of Nazism (National Socialism), said Goering, is: "Common good comes before private good." Fascism, said
    Mussolini, is "a life in which the individual, through the sacrifice of his own private interests??realizes that completely spiritual existence in which his value as a man lies."

    Socialism is the social system which institutionalizes envy and self-sacrifice: It is the social system which uses compulsion and the organized violence of the State to expropriate wealth from the producer class for its redistribution to the parasitical class.

    Despite the intellectuals' psychotic hatred of capitalism, it is the only moral and just social system.

    Capitalism is the only moral system because it requires human beings to deal with one another as traders--that is, as free moral agents trading and selling goods and services on the basis of mutual consent.

    Capitalism is the only just system because the sole criterion that determines the value of thing exchanged is the free, voluntary, universal judgement of the consumer. Coercion and fraud are anathema to the free-market system.

    It is both moral and just because the degree to which man rises or falls in society is determined by the degree to which he uses his mind. Capitalism is the only social system that rewards merit, ability and achievement, regardless of one's birth or station in life.

    Yes, there are winners and losers in capitalism. The winners are those who are honest, industrious, thoughtful, prudent, frugal, responsible, disciplined, and efficient. The losers are those who are shiftless, lazy, imprudent, extravagant, negligent, impractical, and inefficient. [What about the role of luck­being in the right place at the right time or the wrong place at the wrong time? R. R. Pope}

    Capitalism is the only social system that rewards virtue and punishes vice. This applies to both the business executive and the carpenter, the lawyer and the factory worker.

  • Posted By: Krohn @ 10/12/2008 8:31:15 PM

    THE AFFIRMATIVE ACTION CANDIDATE!

    NEVER IN THE HISTORY OF THIS COUNTRY HAS A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE BEEN GIVEN SUCH A FREE PASS BY THE PRESS AND JUST ABOUT EVERYONE ELSE!

    I AM WAITING FOR A BLACK PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE TO MAKE IT ON HIS OWN MERIT.

    COLIN POWELL COMES TO MIND!

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