The Lure of Black Gold

Offshore oil drilling is at the center of an intensifying national debate over how the government should address the current energy crisis, and it's lately become a front-burner issue on the presidential campaign trail. Presumptive nominees Barack Obama and John McCain have been divided on the issue—Obama was against more drilling, McCain has lately come out in favor of it—but just today, Obama qualified his position, telling a Florida newspaper he'd be open to allowing limited offshore drilling if that's what it takes to pass a more comprehensive energy plan, including support for alternative energy and more fuel-efficient cars. Until recently, coastal states had taken a "not in my backyard" approach to offshore drilling. But that's beginning to change, now that gas prices are hovering at or above $4 per gallon. In Florida, 60 percent of voters now support drilling off their coasts. Perhaps more surprising, a majority in eco-conscious California is also willing to tap waters off the state's shorelines. Ever since the devastating Unocaloil spill in the waters off Santa Barbara in 1969, there was a relatively unified opposition to new drilling in the state. But a just-released survey by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), a nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization, shows a slim but surprising majority (51 percent) of Californians now favoring more offshore drilling, while 45 percent now oppose it.

The attitude shift among Californians was primarily caused by a surge in support for drilling among Republicans in the state. According to the survey, in which 2,504 adult residents were polled from July 8 to July 22, more than 77 percent of California's Republicans now support offshore drilling, up from 60 percent a year ago. Only 35 percent of Democrats approve of offshore drilling, but that's up from 29 percent a year ago. Mark Baldassare, president and CEO of the PPIC and founder of the organization's Statewide Survey, spoke to NEWSWEEK's Jamie Reno about the latest results and their national political implications. Excerpts:

NEWSWEEK: In a statewide field poll taken less than a month ago, 51 percent of Californians opposed offshore drilling, while 43 percent approved. Your survey numbers are virtually reversed and come just a few weeks later. To what do you attribute this dramatic shift?
Mark Baldassare: The difference is in large part due to the state's Republicans, who've become more favorably disposed to offshore drilling. We saw a 17 point increase in support among Republicans over our survey last year, and a 6 point increase among Democrats.

Why have so many Republicans made the switch?
It's become a lot more politically acceptable. In recent months, both the president and the Republican nominee have come out in favor of expanding offshore drilling. The other factor has to be that rising gas prices have made Californians more inclined to think about expanding the energy supply.

In addition to President Bush and Senator McCain, conservative pundits have in the last few weeks criticized Senator Obama for opposing offshore drilling, saying it's an example of his energy-policy inertia. Their argument is that at least Senator McCain is doing something. How big an influence do you think these media pundits have had in the shift in mood among Californians?
Yes, in the last few months, people have heard not just Republican political leadership but people in the media, who've raised questions about whether we are doing all we can to expand our domestic oil supply. All of this has made it more acceptable to say that you support offshore drilling, because it's in line with the national party leaders. A year ago, people may have been thinking it, but you weren't hearing it.

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, has consistently opposed offshore drilling. Is it conceivable that he'll look at the numbers in this survey, particularly in his party, and rethink his position?
I'd be surprised if a poll that finds voters still sharply divided on an issue would cause the governor to change his position. Schwarzenegger is looking for support of all Californians, and this is a topic over which Californians are still clearly divided. It's a very slim majority, which suggests it is a very polarizing issue. Right now the governor is looking to take care of the budget situation, improve the economy and put out the fires in his state.