Oops!

In Athens, the United States actually increased its medal total by more than 6 percent, from 97 to 103. Russia, predicted by PwC to lose nearly 30 percent of its 2000 medals (and by Bernard to lose about 6 percent of its medals), increased its take from 88 to 92. Greece won 16 medals in Athens, a 20 percent increase from its 2000 total, but nowhere near the massive gains the models had predicted. And India disappointed PwC by again taking home one measly medal. The excuse: "Indian sport tends to be focused on events that are not included in the Olympics, most importantly cricket," Hawksworth wrote in the introduction to the current projection.

The rampant growth in China, India, and around the globe has surely changed the way we view winners and losers in the global market. But while swift economic changes influence the models' calculations in the short term, it might take decades for money to translate into building a culture of athletic performance. And as seen by the performance of members of the former Soviet bloc, cultures of athletic excellence can endure even when the economic structures that built them have crumbled. In addition, sports are tied up with culture, geography, social mores, and traditions that aren't particularly responsive to economic changes. An ultra-wealthy country like Saudi Arabia is unlikely to produce many female Olympians.

In addition, predictions about the Olympics are difficult because of the nature of the Games. The differences separating medal-winners from nonmedal-winners are often counted in hundredths of seconds or fractions of inches. And myriad factors on the ground that have nothing to do with economics can impact the outcome of events: a last-minute injury, a runner clipping a single hurdle, or a swimmer turning in a once-in-a-lifetime performance. Finally, as I noted in 2004, I think the models continue to ignore another economic factor that enables some countries to perform above expectations. Ultimately, Olympic success revolves around a nation's ability to attract, retain, and develop human capital to its fullest potential. Historically, no country in the world has managed to do this quite as well as the United States. When the U.S. team enters the Olympic stadium in Beijing on Friday, distance runner Lopez Lomong will carry the flag. Seven years ago, he was one of the lost boys of Sudan, living in a refugee camp in Kenya. Today, he's a U.S. citizen and a contender for a medal.

© 2008