Exit Musharraf?

Perhaps the unkindest cut was when Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the army chief of staff whom Musharraf had handpicked as his successor last November, told him one week ago that the military would not back any presidential move to dissolve parliament, a power that he potentially wields, and that resignation would be the most prudent course, according to one of the aides NEWSWEEK spoke with. The aide says Kayani also told Musharraf that after his resignation, his personal protection would be the responsibility of the civilian government, not the military (not a very reassuring prospect), and that a period of exile would perhaps be the best choice. Musharraf was said to be personally devastated by Kayani's less-than reassuring-stance. "The army is not neutral in this," says the aide. However, he adds that Kayani did reassure Musharraf that as a former president and army head the military would not allow him to be dishonored.

Kayani and the military were never in favor of Musharraf, the former army commando, fighting his political enemies to the bitter end in impeachment proceedings, according to NEWSWEEK sources. The military feared that it too could be further sullied by the charges against Musharraf in a parliamentary impeachment proceeding. After all, it had stood by the president and actively assisted him in carrying out policies that are now under fire, such as the 1999 coup and the emergency declaration last year that included the firing of 60 senior judges, including the popular and pugnacious chief justice, Iftikar Mohammad Chaudhry.

Musharraf lost most of his powers after his resignation as army chief last year and the general elections last February that saw his political allies soundly defeated. Most Pakistanis saw the vote as a referendum on the president and his policies. In a recent poll by the International Republican Institute, some 75 percent of Pakistanis said they had no confidence in the president and preferred that he would resign. Since then, he has been ignored by Zardari's and Sharif's ruling coalition, which is nominally headed by Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani. Still, Musharraf's exodus will leave a power vacuum of sorts at the top, one that Zardari and Sharif may jockey to fill.

If Musharraf does go, the presidency is up for grabs. Zardari is rumored to be keen on filling the post. Sharif may have other ideas, and may be loath to see Zardari elevated to a potentially even more powerful position. But a fight over who will replace Musharraf in the presidential palace would only further distract the country from dealing with its other pressing crises: 25 percent inflation, power shortages, an eroding currency, capital flight, a lack of foreign investment and an increasingly aggressive Islamic insurgency on its western border.

© 2008