INTERNATIONAL

A New Ice Age?

The West's weak response to Russian aggression is triggering concerns about a new cold war.

Georgia has pulled its embattled troops out of the disputed province of South Ossetia and agreed to a cease-fire, submitting to Russia's far superior firepower.

 

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There's an irony in the fact that when Belgium laid out the month's "Programme of Work" at the U.N. Security Council, this last week was absent an agenda. Since Russia's invasion of Georgia, the diplomatic community has been rather preoccupied. The United States and Western Europe have flailed about, ultimately unable to check Russia's unabashed aggression. Defying a host of threats from the West, which now include military posturing in Poland, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin have invaded a neighboring country with impunity.

Georgia has pulled its embattled troops out of the disputed province of South Ossetia and agreed to a cease-fire, submitting to Russia's far superior firepower.

President George W. Bush rightly reminded the world that "the cold war is over." Today's Russia is by no means the Soviet Union, and just as much, today's West is not led by Ronald Reagan's big-talking United States. Putin heads an energy-rich, autocratic country loaded with more than half a trillion dollars worth of foreign reserves (most of which are held in U.S. dollars), while the United States is faced with a worsening financial crisis and taxing military commitments overseas.

"On balance, Russia sees that they have more leverage economically over the West than the West has over Russia," says Cliff Gaddy, a senior fellow at The Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. "Belatedly, this incident in Georgia is waking everybody up to a reality that's already true." That reality is that the West lacks the capacity to contain Russia in the way that it did for nearly two decades after the end of the cold war, and the invasion of Georgia signals a new era, one in which authoritarian regimes can brazenly buck the international system.

The U.S. response has continually grown more bellicose. At the beginning of the week, in concert with much of the West, Bush called for a ceasefire. Day by day, the rhetoric ramped up. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that this was not 1968--when the Soviet Union occupied Czechoslovakia--and argued that the "role Russia can play in the international community is very much at stake here." The United States scrapped war games with Russia that had been scheduled for later this month, and Bush ordered a C-17 military cargo plane full of humanitarian supplies to be sent to Georgia. After a week though, the Russians had not pulled back.

Then came the announcement that Poland had agreed to host the U.S.'s missile-defense system, a military installment that has long sparked tensions between Russia and the United States. As of Sunday, the Russians had promised to withdraw forces from some parts of Georgia, but hinted that they could continue to occupy the country. A Russian general even said that Poland had opened itself up to nuclear retaliation.

Europe has played a different hand. The continent is much more dependent on Russia economically. Russia has grown in recent years to become one of the European Union's largest trading partners, and the EU relies on Russia for a third of its oil and 40 percent of its natural gas. At the same time, Europe simply has a different outlook because of its geographic closeness to Russia. In light of its more complicated relationship, the EU has had a more restrained reaction, joining with the U.S. in suggesting that Russia's position within the G8, as well as its membership in the World Trade Organization or the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, could be in jeopardy.

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Member Comments

  • Posted By: Glenno @ 10/01/2008 1:19:31 AM

    I know how we can punish the Russians for defending themselves... We can break previous agreements with them and expand NATO up to their borders, then we can bomb and dismember their friends like Serbia. We can build pipelines going around Russia. We can reduce Russian influence by not giving citizenship or voting rights to Russian minorities in the Baltics. How about breaking international law and ignoring Russia by declearing independence for Kosovo? Then we can undermine manipulate elections through "supporting the democratic process" and stage colour coded revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia and turn their friends against them. Next step we could of course undermine democracy by pushing NATO on Ukraine even though 2/3 dont want it in Ukraine. Or how about arming and training the satelite state Georgia to attack Russia and slaughter Russians citizens in their sleep? After this is done we can let our free unbias western media air videos of Czechoslovakia in 1968 and other ridiculous comparisons instead of reporting the facts. Well, as this is what we are doing to Russia when they are our "friend", we seem to have run out ways to punish them. Or maybe we should keep following Brzezinski's strategy to break Russia into 3 smaller states so they can be contained? I really hate it when Russia doesnt follow our gameplan, it is obvious that they do not share our values of democracy, peace and freedom

  • Posted By: MrLatvia @ 09/05/2008 8:46:07 PM

    What everyone seems to forget is that Russia (whether it's called The Soviet Union, the USSR, Czarist Russia or the Gulag Republics of PooTinstan) IS and always has been a Terrorist Nation - in the 20th century it was the leading Terrorist State on the planet... remember?
    As I've said all along, Bush attacked the wrong area of the world with Weapons of Mass Destruction - duh - look who's sitting on a pile of them right next door to Europe. The 3 Stooges (Chairman Poo Tin, Dim Medvedev and a plaster-cast statue of Stalin) took on Georgia because it only has an army of 37,000 (compared to Russia's 1.1 million). Georgia is also a key in the Caucasus region - the roots of Europe... like the Chechens, the ancient Colchis & Iberian kingdoms influenced all the primary roots of European civilization. Anyway, Stalin's plan when he was a ???commissioner of the minorities??? way back in the 1920s was to eliminate ALL the tribes of Europe & replace them with Homo Sovieticus. Ya know what I mean? It's astounding that since the second Russian occupation of Chechnya (which Chairman Poo Tin ordered in 2000) the Russians still have been unable to eliminate (& conquer) those tough mountain peoples. Ingushetia (a captive nation inside Russia) has asked for help to "liberate" it from Russia - is that a hint to the EU or NATO? Or maybe Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania should become Nuclear Powers and ???liberate??? the oppressed minorities inside the federation? Did Russia open the doors (unknowingly?) to "liberating" its own captive nations by recognizing the so-called ???independence??? of Abhkazia & South Ossetia and creating "buffer zones" inside sovereign Georgia? Or is that a trap? No one has been allowed into the newly "independent" zones of occupation under complete Chairman Poo Tin control??? what is going on there? Are the army hordes being massed there for a total onslaught on Europe??? Paris??? Berlin??? Rome??? will the veterans of the Chechen genocide be allowed to rape, plunder & ravage the Continent? I mean, where else can they go? Iran? China? Let's see what kind of "buffer zones" the Chinese will carve out of Siberia... come on European Union or NATO even - get your act together and "liberate" Yakutia or Ingushetia or Chechnya or one of the other captive nations. Question the legitimacy of this rule by those 3 Stooges. Genocide is at your doorstep Europe - so what are ya gonna do about it?

  • Posted By: System7 @ 08/26/2008 10:44:19 PM

    Russia and the West are interdependent. The USA attacked Iraq, and the oil price became twice greater in
    some time. The oil price became twice greater, and it is harder for Americans to pay for their houses
    that were bought by hypothec. What will happen if you don't let Russia pump its energy to the West? I
    think the oil price will become twice greater slowly again. In such a way, the West can throw hundreds of
    Americans out of their houses. Dear Emilda, have you probably bought some stocks of oil companies and try to heat the situation to take profit? Let's build peace.

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