NATO’s Defining Moment

Premier Vladimir Putin has chosen his moment well, with American presidential authority weakened by the election season, and American forces bled dry in Iraq and, yes, Afghanistan. "Russia has sent a clear sphere-of-influence message: that it will not allow that sphere to be challenged. That's a message not just to countries such as Georgia and Ukraine, but also to putative allies such as Armenia and Belarus," said Andrew Wilson, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, a London-based think tank. Already would-be NATO-member Ukraine is cooling to the idea of joining the bloc, he said. "Ukrainians see NATO membership as a threat to a way of life that includes friendly relations with Russia," Wilson said.

On the roads full of refugees near the embattled Georgian town of Tskhinvali over the weekend, the mood already was changing from defiance toward Moscow to frustration with Saakashvili's government. "I know that nothing is left of my house and my barber shop," said Bezhan Dzhedlidze, who was fleeing on foot with his wife and family. "We are victims of a personal conflict between Saakashvili and Putin. That was their personal conflict and now thousands of us here have suffered."

The standoff also complicates Washington's ambitions to weaken Russian control over pipelines that send energy to Europe. Washington has so far managed to keep friendly relations with Russia while sending its special envoy for Eurasian energy to the Caucasus to lobby for pipeline routes that bypass Russia. With relations cooling further, such moves may become more delicate. "The original problem of Russia's grip on energy and economic issues in the area remains, regardless of what NATO does," said a U.S. official familiar with energy issues in the region.

Some in the Kremlin may see ironic justice in the current crisis. NATO is struggling to muster a more forceful response to Moscow even as its soldiers are dying in the Afghan killing fields where the Soviet Union cracked in the 1980s before shattering in the 1990s. Certainly it is a bit of cautionary history members of NATO should keep in mind.

With reporting from Tracy McNicoll in Paris, Juliane von Reppert-Bismarck in Brussels and Anna Nemtsova near Tskhinvali

© 2008