SHADOWLAND
Christopher Dickey
The New Great Game
Given Russia's moves on Georgia, it's time for the United States to rethink its policy toward Iran.
Remember Iran, the greatest threat to Western civilization since, well, Iraq? The posturing conservatives who dominated America's foreign policy for most of the last seven years pretended the only approach that ever could or should be pursued toward the mullahs would be isolation, confrontation and, what the hell, annihilation. Who can forget the oft-repeated campaign mantra of Sen. John McCain that the only thing worse than going to war with Iran would be a nuclear-armed Iran?
Well, it turns out that a lot of things are worse. It's funny how a reassertive Russia armed with some 10,000 all-too-real nuclear weapons puts the theoretical menace of Iran's as yet non- existent arsenal in perspective. But, looking ahead, what's more curious still is that a new administration--maybe even McCain's--may start looking for ways to work with Iran to help balance Russian power.
For centuries, whenever Russia has thrashed around in the Caucasus or in Central Asia, the Persians have been among the first to feel the bear's hot breath. The kingdoms of Georgia, one may recall, were vassals of the shahs before they were taken by the tsars in the early 19th century. Imperial Russia kept pushing decade after decade until its troops occupied even the Iranian city of Tabriz. In the 20th century, the Soviets repeatedly tried to establish variations on the theme of a Persian Socialist Republic. That's the kind of history the millennially minded Iranians keep in mind.
It's true that over the last 20 years, Tehran's relations with Moscow have been much more cooperative. The Persian pariahs would take any friends they could get. But those were the decades when Russia's sphere of influence was shrinking--and the Russian move into Georgia is a clear signal those days of timidity are over.
History, especially Caucasian, Caspian and Central Asian history has restarted with a vengeance. The dynamics of confrontation and conciliation in Iran's neighborhood are now every bit as complicated as they were in the 19th century, when an expanding Russian empire came up against the intrigues, alliances and sometimes overt military actions of imperial Britain in the rivalry that became known as "The Great Game." What's needed as we start reshaping American policy to fit the new circumstances is a reality check or, perhaps better said, a realpolitik check.
Over the short run, the mullahs will reap several benefits from Russia's play in Georgia and Western reaction to it. "If you are no longer the greatest threat du jour then you are off the hook," says Vali Nasr, an Iran scholar affiliated with the Council on Foreign Relations. Given the diplomatic standoff between Moscow and Washington, it will be much harder to enforce U.N. Security Council sanctions leveled against Iran for pursuing its nuclear-enrichment program. Further tightening the screws will be all but impossible. At the same time, the likelihood of American-led or supported military action against Iran is also diminished. It was never a good idea, and now it would be a very dangerous distraction for the already depleted U.S. military. Israel, however worried it may be, will have to understand that.
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Member Comments
Posted By: Glenno @ 11/05/2008 7:39:11 PM
Comment: Mr.Latvia, why does Lativa not give voting rights or citizenship to all people born in the country, no rights for ethnic Russians, of course America will support any anti-russian initiative.
How about The American Empire give Texas back to the mexicans? Russians are so difficult, why wont they surrender to American power? America has finally surrounded them with US military bases, NATO expanded to their borders and now building missile shield at their borders. After America put in puppet regimes in Georgia and Ukraine, and funded the genocide in South Ossetia, Russia should have realised that they should bow to the American Empire. Now it seems that all of the middle east are offering Russia naval bases to Russia to deter American aggression and even Europe say that Georgia was the aggressive one. Why are all nations in the world so anti-american that they wont accept the american empire ruling over them?
Posted By: tfc7713@yahoo.com @ 09/11/2008 5:26:11 AM
Comment: If Chinese can carve out Siberia as what MrLatvia termed, I cannot see why not? In history, Siberia belonged to a tribe of Chinese called Siber who was and now living in most part of Siberia now under the Russian governing. Taking present circumstances into consideration, Mr MrLatvia's saying was merely wishful day dream thinking as Chinese and Russian have signed treaty permanently settled the border.
Posted By: MrLatvia @ 09/05/2008 8:12:17 PM
Comment: What everyone seems to forget is that Russia (whether it's called The Soviet Union, the USSR, Czarist Russia or the Gulag Republics of PooTinstan) IS and always has been a Terrorist Nation - in the 20th century it was the leading Terrorist State on the planet... remember?
As I've said all along, Bush attacked the wrong area of the world with Weapons of Mass Destruction - duh - look who's sitting on a pile of them right next door to Europe. The 3 Stooges (Chairman Poo Tin, Dim Medvedev and a plaster-cast statue of Stalin) took on Georgia because it only has an army of 37,000 (compared to Russia's 1.1 million). Georgia is also a key in the Caucasus region - the roots of Europe... like the Chechens, the ancient Colchis & Iberian kingdoms influenced all the primary roots of European civilization. Anyway, Stalin's plan when he was a ???commissioner of the minorities??? way back in the 1920s was to eliminate ALL the tribes of Europe & replace them with Homo Sovieticus. Ya know what I mean? It's astounding that since the second Russian occupation of Chechnya (which Chairman Poo Tin ordered in 2000) the Russians still have been unable to eliminate (& conquer) those tough mountain peoples. Ingushetia (a captive nation inside Russia) has asked for help to "liberate" it from Russia - is that a hint to the EU or NATO? Or maybe Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania should become Nuclear Powers and ???liberate??? the oppressed minorities inside the federation? Did Russia open the doors (unknowingly?) to "liberating" its own captive nations by recognizing the so-called ???independence??? of Abhkazia & South Ossetia and creating "buffer zones" inside sovereign Georgia? Or is that a trap? No one has been allowed into the newly "independent" zones of occupation under complete Chairman Poo Tin control??? what is going on there? Are the army hordes being massed there for a total onslaught on Europe??? Paris??? Berlin??? Rome??? will the veterans of the Chechen genocide be allowed to rape, plunder & ravage the Continent? I mean, where else can they go? Iran? China? Let's see what kind of "buffer zones" the Chinese will carve out of Siberia... come on European Union or NATO even - get your act together and "liberate" Yakutia or Ingushetia or Chechnya or one of the other captive nations. Question the legitimacy of this rule by those 3 Stooges. Genocide is at your doorstep Europe - so what are ya gonna do about it?