You put it right Glenno.
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Not a Safe Route
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To be sure, several European buyers have excellent relations with Russia and don't necessarily fear greater dependence. Germany is building its own pipeline through the Baltic Sea to guarantee its supply of Russian gas (a recent Rice University Energy Program modeling exercise found that Russian efforts to deprive Germany of gas would likely be futile, as market deregulation would allow other suppliers to fill the gap). Italy struck a swap arrangement with Moscow, too.
Still, for Europe, that means that its attempts to diversify its energy supplies may have failed. Russia, which already supplies 40 percent of European gas demand, may control even more if the war in Georgia ends up killing off new pipeline projects. The Soviet Union is dead, but Russia's enmity toward Georgia and covetousness of central Asia's hydrocarbons suggest that George Kennan's adage lives on: in terms of energy, Russia can have at its borders only enemies or vassals.
© 2008
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