China's Winning Ways

Another interesting trend: Despite the spread of wealth around the world and the increasing decentralization of the global economy, the rich generally stayed rich. The top 10 countries won 532 medals in 2004, compared with 519 in 2008. The top 30 won 796 medals, up from 776 in 2004.

Predicting Olympic outcomes from a top-down perspective (as the models do) or from a bottom-up perspective (consulting experts in every sport and picking potential winners) is an extraordinarily difficult endeavor. As I noted before the Games began, there's a big element of chance and randomness—think of the one one-hundredth of a second that separated Michael Phelps from Milorad Cavic in the 100-meter butterfly or the unexpected flubs of the American sprint-relay teams. And I still maintain that these models have to take better account of cultural phenomena, such as a nation's openness to immigration. Among the winners for the United States were gymnast Nastia Liukin (born in Moscow) and, my favorite of these Games, Henry Cejudo, the 20-year-old son of illegal immigrants from Mexico who became the youngest American to win gold in wrestling. Nothing is certain in this world. But it's highly likely that had Cejudo's family stayed in Mexico—or if they had been deported soon after their arrival—the United States would have won only 35 gold medals in Beijing.

© 2008