Source: Petraeus submitted report on troop cuts

Adding to the calculations on troop reductions in Iraq is a growing concern in the U.S. government about a resurgent Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan and unfulfilled demands by U.S. commanders there for more U.S. troops. Significant additions in Afghanistan can't happen without reductions in Iraq.

Col. Peter Mansoor, who served as a close adviser to Petraeus in Baghdad until recently and is retiring from the Army in September, said in a telephone interview Thursday that while he is not involved in Petraeus' new assessment, he sees little reason to think that Petraeus would resist troop cuts.

"It's my belief, given the improvement in the security situation in Iraq, that there will be a continued withdrawal of U.S. forces, as promised by Gen. Petraeus at his last congressional hearing, later this fall," Mansoor said.

The senior military officer who disclosed that Petraeus had made an initial recommendation also told the AP that Afghanistan and other factors, such as war strains on the overall U.S. military, are considered in Petraeus' calculations on troop levels but are not decisive factors.

There is no specific deadline for Petraeus to submit his final recommendation, although it is expected before he turns over the U.S. military command in Baghdad in mid-September to Odierno. Petraeus' next assignment is as commander of U.S. Central Command, where he will be responsible for U.S. military involvement across the Middle East and Central Asia, including Iraq and Afghanistan.

It would be a major surprise if Petraeus did not recommend that troop reductions resume soon. In May, when he testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee, he suggested he was leaning in that direction.