It Isn’t a Zero-Sum Game

All developed countries have lost manufacturing jobs over the past 30 years. The United States has lost 5.5 million factory jobs and gained nearly ten times as many non-manufacturing jobs. Unemployment is lower and our standard of living is up 75% since manufacturing employment peaked in 1979.

But we cannot deny the huge changes taking place. The explosive growth of the developing world means that the U.S. share of the world economy will shrink dramatically over the next several decades. At the same time, we are entering a demographic shift. As tens of millions baby boomers enter retirement, the developing nations are destined to provide a good portion of the young labor we need. Instead of fearing change, we must take advantage of it. American brand names still resonate strongly in the developing countries where huge consumer markets are opening up. Our non-petroleum trade deficit is at a six-year low and we run a trade. We still run a trade surplus in our service sector, which includes telecommunications, finance, insurance, travel, and consulting. And the United States attracts foreigners in higher education and research, who are drawn to the "out of the box" thinking that has long been a hallmark of U.S. economic development.

Mark Zandi, chief economist of forecasting firm Moody's Economy.com
Globalization is a boon to the American economy. This has been clear during the past year, when soaring exports have powered more than half of our struggling economy's growth. By my calculation, the export boom has created close to 1 million jobs. Without those jobs, unemployment would now be well over 6%.

 Our farmers are producing crops that are in hot demand across the globe. The high-tech industry is faring well selling its sophisticated wares to emerging economies. American universities are attracting the world's best and brightest. American movies, music and sports are popular everywhere, and tourist spots are enjoying a surge of foreign travelers.

Foreign investors are avid buyers of everything from U.S. Treasury bonds to Manhattan real estate, a reality to embrace, not decry. Their interests are becoming intimately tied to our own, and their prosperity is increasingly dependent on how well our economy performs-a good reason to peacefully work out our differences, both economic and political.

Mohamed el-Erian, co-CEO of bond specialist PIMCO, is author of "When Markets Collide: Investment Strategies for an Era of Global Economic Change" (McGraw Hill, 2008).
Ironically, globalization is especially vulnerable to critique because its benefits are spread widely, and its critics focus on concentrated areas (like autos), which obscure the overall positive impact. Globalization has allowed billions of people to enjoy a higher standard of living, and lifted millions from absolute poverty. Attacks on globalization distract attention from the real problems, which will require more-rather than less-cross-border interaction to solve. Today's crisis highlights the need to strengthen the institutions that support globalization. At a minimum, the United States should use the IMF/World Bank meetings this October to urge changing the makeup of the G-7 (now Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) perhaps replacing Italy and Canada with China and India. The current grouping represents yesterday's world and has lost its relevance.

Nariman Behvavesh is chief economist of Global Insight, a forecasting firm.
The impact of globalization is very similar to that of a new technology: some jobs are destroyed, more jobs are created and consumers benefit hugely from lower prices.

The U.S. economy is currently larger than the next three largest-Japan, Germany and China-combined. This picture will not necessarily change in a dramatic way over the next forty to fifty years—if we make the right kinds of investments, especially in our "human capital." Over the past century, the United States has been evolving away from industries that require manual labor to those that require high skills and high levels of education. Manufacturing accounted for 40% of the economy in 1950, but accounts for only 12% now. Sectors like business and health services account for about 80%. The change has much more to do with new technology than the rise of China and India ( or before them, in the 1960s, Japan).

Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management
The real losers of globalization are Europe and Japan. Over the past decade, the U.S. share in the global economy has remained stable at just under 30% and the United States has contributed nearly 25% to global growth. Meanwhile, anemic growth in Japan and Western Europe has steadily eroded their share of the pie. Their poor economic performance is especially disappointing this year because it has left the global economy flying on one engine - emerging markets. Instead of buffering the slowdown in the US, as many hoped, both the European and Japanese economies have been contracting this summer, even as the United States continues to eke out some growth. The trend seems clear: Europe and Japan expand more slowly than the United States during its booms, and slow even more during its sluggish periods. This means that the United States has a much better chance of avoiding an extended recession than Europe and Japan, where labor markets and management mindsets are more rigid.