WORLD VIEW | Fareed Zakaria

This Isn’t the Return of History

The Georgia attack will go down not as the dawn of a new era of Russian power but as a major strategic blunder.

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  • Posted By: Georgegeorgian @ 09/14/2008 6:29:05 PM

    I have read with great interest this article and smiled on furious comments by some Pro-Russian readers - apparently from Russia Today propaganda machine.
    I absolutely agree that high oil prices made Russian "desperately-want-to-be-Empire-again" so incredible bold (and foolish, I would say) - they demonstrate these oil and gas muscles now as more powerful weapons than any bombs ever has been in the history - and a threat to Europe cut the gas in winter and freeze (or even only decrease on some degrees the indoor temperature) makes EU politicians very much foundering indeed. So, if not Iraq invasion - and high prices on oil; if not constant talks about invasion in Iran - and even higher price on oil - and if not a real treason of EU leaders when each EU country "sells" its neighbors' interests to achieve a secular deal for themselves only and greater dependence on Mr. Putin's oil, like on cocaine, and if not once politician Gerhard Schroeder - a recent shame on German history, a political whore, bought by Mr. Putin - Russians would not commit that stupid action. Their card-house will fall apart soon - as soon as oil drops below 60$ and when Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Yakutia, Dagestan, Kabardo, Ingushetia, and North Ossetia as well! - will also demand the similar independence as now Russia granted to South Ossetia.

    And all talks about Russia caring about those people in South Ossetia and Abkhazia is huge boolshit. Mr. Zhirinovsky has already publicly announced that Russia only needs territorieas - Ossetians and Abkhazians will have role of servants there, if at all. Also, the state which terminated humerous thousands of Chechens for their strive to independence, has no moral right to defend "independence of others abroad, issuing to them its passports like Hitler did.

    My request to EU leaders would be to remember those words, said once by "prominent" European politician:
    "How horrible, fantastic, incredible it is that we should be digging trenches and trying on gas-masks here because of a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing. It seems still more impossible that a quarrel which has already been settled in principle should be the subject of war."

    remember what has happened a little bit after that "appeasement"?...

    George

    • Posted By: schizhang @ 10/01/2008 9:28:14 PM

      "Pro-Russian readers - apparently from Russia Today propaganda machine", are you sure you are not living under some sort of propaganda? Propaganda labeled as "Freedom of reporting" is more harmful than propaganda labeled "propaganda".

  • Posted By: nawawimohamad @ 09/04/2008 3:34:45 AM

    "Many in Washington have described Russia's attack on Georgia as a turning point in international affairs" Why is the US so stubborn to admit that it is Georgia backed by the US who attacked the Russian region. It is the US who started all these conflicts.

    • Posted By: Georgegeorgian @ 09/15/2008 1:55:21 AM

      to nawawimohamad: South Ossetia never has been "Russian territory"!! One simply needs to look at the Caucasus map - there is 15000 feet high Caucasian Mountain Chain between South Ossetia and Russia.
      The term "South Ossetia" was invented by Stalin and other Bolsheviks in 20s when they annexed Georgia. Ossetians living in Samachablo (that is historical name of South Ossetia) have supported Russian Red Army in invasion against independent Georgia, and that was sort of "reimbursement". When South Ossetian Autonomous Region was created inside Georgia Soviet Republic, Tskhinvali, its "capital" had only 200 inhabitants of Ossetian origin. Ossetians mainly have been coming for seasonal work from Real Ossetia (Alania) which is North Ossetia in Russia. Interesting fact is that Russia doesn't grant "independence" to millions of Tatars and Bashkirs, and Chechens, and Ingushs, and only has tears to cry about 40,000 South Ossetians. Why? Because unlike those peoples mentioned above - South Ossetia is a mechanishm to control and panish other state - Georgia.

  • Posted By: AKD23 @ 09/12/2008 5:28:19 AM

    I do have a great respect for the author of this article, Fareed Zakaria, but the following sounds utterly cynical: "And what did Russia get for all this? Seventy thousand South Ossetians." It should be realised that Russia had no choice. If we were to draw analogies, it might be compared with a situation where several hundred Americans have been killed by the Mexican army, although as all analogies it is far from being perfect. The one with US strikes on Taliban in Afghanistan may be closer to the point I want to make. A responsible state has no chance, but to protect its citizens by all means available and appropriate in any particular situation. In the event of war, it is a military response. Hopefully, there will be less provocations in the future.

    • Posted By: Georgegeorgian @ 09/14/2008 6:38:07 PM

      You had a choice in Chechnya! 100,000 terminated people - did they have right for independece? You have lied about 2,000 people daid in first 2 hours of Georgain artillery shelling - in fact 133 persons died in Tskhinvali from South Ossetian side - reported by Western journalists. But the state who explodes its own sleeping citizens in blockhouses for settling a war, sinks its own sailors in Kursk rejecting foreign help, and kills its own children in Beslan justifying counterterrorist attacks, will do ANYTHING and will try to justify ANYTHING by the same cynical "proves" and "grounds", as in Katine (Poland), as in Finland, as in Budapest, as in Prague, as in Kabul...

  • Posted By: lioron2710 @ 09/13/2008 1:17:08 PM

    It is quite amazing how Fareed Zakaria manages to be on the employ of such a renowned magazine. I have been reading his articles for quite some time now and have never ceased to be surprised by his pro-US instance , come hell or high water. The fact remains that people like Mr Zakaria are part of the media-elite whose sole purpose is to pontificate on all things sundry without ever pointing the finger at themselves. He writes good English, though, although most of it is wasted in penning such pointless articles without ever understanding geoplitical realities and changed world circumstances. Frankly, when the U.S. pot calls the Russian kettle black, one cannot suppress a chuckle.

  • Posted By: coocao @ 09/13/2008 10:17:32 AM

    A truth is not to blame Russia but to stop USA from its aggressive geopolitics. A situation around Russia-Georgia conflict completely mimics USA policy with a war in Iraq. A "truth loving" media has organized a media attack on Russia skillfully manipulating and hiding the real truth about conflict. Does it sound very familiar? The fact is everyone can hear overblown information about victims in Georgia, but not a word about how many people have been suffered from a massive attack of the Georgian army on the South-Osetia. Besides the same media skillfully hides down shocking information on CIA involvement in preparing and guiding the Georgia's attack and generous financing so called 'pink revolution' in Georgia. How come USA government cannot find money to provide a basic health care for its citizens but immediately offers a huge financial aid to Georgia? Doesn't it directly prove USA involvement? Besides Mr. Cheney???s visit to Georgia and Azerbaijan smells like an oil business. How many big USA oil companies are involved in the use of the oil wealth of Azerbaijan? Whose interests have to be protected now?
    The truth is simple the media is far away from the truth when it suits ???a big hairy hand??? generously covering its expenses.

  • Posted By: oea65 @ 09/12/2008 11:20:42 PM

    Zakaria is full of s...This is his worse, stupidest article ever, it seems written by a baboon.

  • Posted By: basedrum777 @ 09/02/2008 4:46:25 PM

    I'm not much for the US flexing its might but Russia will see a true Tiger if it thinks it is going to bomb weapons the US puts into Poland to defend against middle east agressors. Russia thinks very highly of itself if it thinks that the US is positioning its missle defense system to defend against it. The US hasn't worried about Russian military might since the first Bush was in office.

    • Posted By: wertheworld @ 09/12/2008 10:08:05 PM

      Same old, same old. Pre WWII Germany established military installations, military schools, etc. in Poland after the leaders made a piece treaty and the civilians suffered from inhuman torture by the Germans. Nopoleon made a piece treaty also with Poland, even courted a princess. The Polish civilians also suffered. Most powerful nations used Poland and Ukraine as a stepping stone to conquer or downsize Russia and the Russians know it.

      Is the history repeating itself, of course.

  • Posted By: thom77 @ 09/02/2008 12:14:47 PM

    I think this is a vast oversimplification; you???re big mistake here is the assumption that Putin actually wants to act in the interest of greater Russia, when in actuality he just wants absolute power. Putin has gained far more than "70,000 South Ossetians" with this gambit. He has postured himself as a force to be reckoned with; the undisputed leader of his region and one in which the US and EU are powerless to stop. He doesn't care about sanctions or world opinion; he has no reason to. At the end of the day, he'll still sell his oil. Everything else is secondary.

    The thing is, the Russian people eat this stuff up. They LOVE that they have a tough-guy leader who thumbs his nose at the world and shoots tigers and builds new missiles and takes his shirt off and has military parades in Red Square. Especially after nearly two decades of post-cold war humiliation as a third-rate power, they are hungry for these demonstrations, and intolerant (at best) towards those who seek to point out the underlying problems in the society he created (as indicated by the murder of journalists and opposition leaders, demonization of the west, etc.)

    Is it short-sighted? Maybe it is. Oil prices won???t stay this high forever, and if things get too scary, foreign business and investment will move away. Not to mention that few tyrants meet with happy fates in the end. But at the moment, Putin is riding very high within his own borders, which seems to be all he really needs (he???s already enriching himself personally by the billions). The US isn???t going to stop him (or even contain him) anytime soon, especially under an Obama administration. Nor is Europe or China. I would reckon that he could probably send a few tanks into Berlin right now and face only slightly more than a slap on the wrist from the international community, while a monument to his honor would be erected in Moscow.

    And this is what really matters to the man. He???s an old-style Soviet, but one who realized that communism isn???t the best way to absolute power, capitalist authoritarianism is. And to that end, he seems to be very effective.

    • Posted By: tbourlon @ 09/02/2008 2:28:20 PM

      Yes, I can see why the people of Russia would love a "tough guy" leader who "shoots from the hip." After all, WE did back in 2000! Russian people should take a closer look at the US, and ask if they really want to be where we are right now.

      • Posted By: sergiykovalchuk @ 09/03/2008 3:44:51 PM

        The important difference is that the tough guy from the West bankrupt his country, while Putin put it back on its feet. For the last 15 years Russia was treated by the "West" as a 3'rd world country and Russian people had enough. And Yes, they love a leader who can bitch-slap NATO when it gets out of line. NATO lied to Russia and it constantly pushing East, US unilaterally pulled out from unrealistic treaty (star war program) and now it wants to park its tanks on Russia's back yard. That's ENOUGH!!! You don't want to be friends, you don't listen to our concerns/interests, and the only language you understand is money and force. I'm Canadian and I support Russia.

        • Posted By: dorian30686 @ 09/06/2008 6:29:32 AM

          Russians are a 3'rd world counrty.they think of fighting while they people are dying of hungry in siberia.What is your opinoin about that?I'm Albanian and I support Georgia

          • Posted By: wertheworld @ 09/12/2008 9:05:22 PM

            Speaking of third world country, what are we doing in Iraq, Afganastan and border of Iran, etc, etc.

      • Posted By: sergiykovalchuk @ 09/03/2008 3:46:50 PM

        The important difference is that the tough guy from the West bankrupt his country, while Putin put it back on its feet. For the last 15 years Russia was treated by the "West" as a 3'rd world country and Russian people had enough. And Yes, they love a leader who can bitch-slap NATO when it gets out of line. NATO lied to Russia and it constantly pushing East, US unilaterally pulled out from unrealistic treaty (star war program) and now it wants to park its tanks on Russia's back yard. That's ENOUGH!!! You don't want to be friends, you don't listen to our concerns/interests, and the only language you understand is money and force. I'm Canadian and I support Russia.

  • Posted By: BIGSRBIN @ 09/02/2008 6:47:40 PM

    UNITED STATES HAS ENCROACHED ON RUSSIAN DOOR STEPS. MISSLE DEFENCE SHIELD IS A SHAM. IT IS DESIGNED FOR A PREEMPTIVE STRIKE AGAINST RUSSIA NOT AGAINST SOME ROGUE STATES. USA HAS TO COME UP WITH A BETTER REASON FOR PLACING MISSLE DEFENSE SHIELD IN THE FORMER RUSSIAN STATES. THE MOTHER PRIZE OF ALL , IS MOTHER RUSSIA. ASK TARTARS, MONGOLS, NAPOLEON, KAIZER, HITLER AND OTHERS WHO HAVE TRIED TO GET IT. ALL HAVE GONE DOWN IN FLAMES. IS THE WEST THAT STUPID TO TRY IT AGAIN?

    • Posted By: basedrum777 @ 09/02/2008 6:55:54 PM

      How about thinking about your yelling before you post something so uninformed? When the Soviet Union was crumbling, if it had wanted, wouldn't the US have done something then if it had wanted? The missle defense shield is aimed significantly more at Iran and possibly Pakistan than at Russia. Last time I checked Poland was an independent country, not a colony of Russia. Russians get way too bent out of shape thinking everything is about them. Look at it this way... if the US was going to attack Russia it wouldn't have wasted time setting up missle defense systems. The US just would've attacked Russia. So just to sum up: the missle defense system has nothing to do with Russia and outside of them providing arms to breakaway provinces in soviergn nations (ahem...S. Ossetia) the US could care less what the Russians do.

      • Posted By: wertheworld @ 09/12/2008 8:23:18 PM

        Just before Germany invaded Poland, they signed a piece agreement with pland and installed an artillary in the name of the defense. Shortly after the Germans invaded Poland. The only reason any country would want to install any milatery arms in Ukraine and Poland, as in the past, is a stepping stone to attack Russia.

        Just think, what would you say if Russia had military installations in Canada.

  • Posted By: AKD23 @ 09/12/2008 5:42:09 AM

    Taking Mr. Zakaria's the point about building closer ties with Russia, I would like to not that it is Russia who has been keen on integration with the West from early 90's up until very recently. The integrations has not happened predominanty because of the failure on the part of the US to realise that it will be beneficial for them in the first instance. Making friends is always better than making foes and will definitely pay out in the middle to long term. Thus, the only appropriate response to Russia should be an increased involvement of the West with Russia, not breaking up the remaining ties. The effort lead by Sarkozy is a good example of what should be done, although it lacks one thing - a wholy-hearted support from the US. Hopefully, Barack Obama as the next president of the US will take a sensible approach and will appreciate that the language of ultimatums proposed by Mr. Zakaria ("The single best strategy for bringing Russia in line with the civilized world would be to dramatically lower oil prices, which would force the country to integrate or stagnate.") will not work with Russia for many political and economical reason. Therefore, the only alternative is expanding the dialogue and engaging Russia further into global affairs as one of the most significant centres of power in the new world. I should also note that it fully complies with the proposition made by Mr. Zakaria in his recent book "The Rise of the Rest". Everybody doing business this days knows that the focus is rapidly shifting to emerging countries with Russia at the forefront. It is an economic reality and if one tries to change it by political or even worse so military means, there will be a major crisis most likely with no winners.

  • Posted By: SeraphIXI @ 09/06/2008 3:01:47 PM

    Georgia attacked South Ossetia and killed 1,600 people FIRST! Are you blind? Russia had every right to defend it's people there. How dare you help propagate US-Russia tensions. You should be ashamed of yourselves for falling for this tripe.

  • Posted By: dorian30686 @ 09/06/2008 6:24:20 AM

    the russian federation has ended her function.there will be not more the sovjetic united,the war in georgia showed the world that the russia is such abig country in surface and armed forces but small in politic and lidership.

  • Posted By: Mohammed Kahin @ 09/06/2008 4:17:23 AM

    The Russians had planned the invasion of Georgia much earlier than the actual attack, while uncle Sam and company were busy enough with the tag of wars in the Middleast. It has been encourged as a result of unsolicited new invasions of the west in search of dominance of the global wealth . I will not be surprised if very similar invasions or so are carried out by China to it's neighbours .We are back to the law of the jungle.

  • Posted By: lws @ 09/06/2008 12:47:57 AM

    You are dead wrong on China's role vis-a-vis Russia~China solidly supports Russia's position on this saga, albeit quietly & without much fanfare, true to our Sun Tse's doctrine of not raffling up feathers when it is timely inappropriate. Don't you read some of these subtle points : China steadfastly supports Russia's right to host the 2014 Sochi Winter Games, dispatches so-called humanitarian aids shipments to the S. Ossetians in pointed response to US's aids shipments via military warships to Georgia, expresses understanding on Russian actions in restoring peace to the S Ossetian regions, refrains from denouncing
    Russian actions as opposed to hysterical vehement cries of foul from the West etc etc.......

    If you care to read all the Chinese posts on China's portals, the almost landslide support for Russia is so overwhelming obvious.

  • Posted By: Pikachu @ 09/04/2008 1:00:59 PM

    I am of the view that Putin has jumped the gun too quickly in the hope of regaining Russia's prestige on the worldstage. Russia's invasion of Georgia has unnecessary raised the suspicion of much developed countries to her disadvantage. We can expect counter tactical and strategic reactions to Russia. The big oil card Russia is wielding today is unlikely to last. It would be wiser for Putin to build up Russia's domestic front including economy if she aspires not only to regain her former glory but maintain it.

  • Posted By: Nueva Politica @ 09/04/2008 11:25:15 AM

    Your commentary is well balance and I agree that we need to have leverage with Russia. However, Russia has to feel the pressure from the outside and needs to let go Georgia as Britain and France did. 5o Years ago and before during the Ottoman empire we did not have internet and too many sophisticated technology so it was no way to send it to newspaper as fast as now. As you said globalization are creating new powers in the whole planet and is the only way to be interrelated among nations. In regard to the Oil it will difficult because the scarsity in the modern world, but at the end of 2 to 10 years Russia will be intergrated with the rest of nations. Oil prices will diminish and the pressure from western nations as well new leverage on Russia will make this possible. Finally, it won't matter if McCain or Obama become president because politics from the United States are consistent from a long period of times and since Ronald Reagan's time to today.

  • Posted By: victtodd @ 09/04/2008 3:56:00 AM

    Drastically lowering oil price? Alas, how are you going to do that?

  • Posted By: Glenno @ 09/03/2008 11:28:02 PM

    Maybe Zakaria could also mention Americas "neutral" role in this conflict? Since US entered Georgia after the revolution/coup, US contribution has made Georgias military budget gone up 50 folds!!! And despite the president clear speaches of his goal to re-take South Ossetia, this came as a surprise to US??
    btw, the reason 90% have russian passports is that 90% are russian ethnic.

  • Posted By: Glenno @ 09/03/2008 11:07:14 PM

    Democracy and international law is the last victims of America.
    Russia remains not integrated in the world order?? What world order is that? Where every security concern of Russia is ignored while the West (aka international community) breaks international law and builds up a aggressive NATO on their borders? How should we assist Ukraine? 2/3 of the country does not want to join NATO, pouring money in to represent 1/3 of the population will make democracy prevail? Only way to avoid conflict is for Europe to step away from the US campaign to "contain Russia"
    http://www.russiatoday.com/employee/27

  • Posted By: Mr.T @ 09/02/2008 11:14:44 AM

    I think you elaborated interligently on this issue very well. But what you fail to relise is that the united states will not allow russia to build a missile defence by her boader and so will russia. When the soviet union collapse they were promise that all these weapon that are being built at their door steps will not happened. But what happen we fail to adhere to our promise and went ahead arming georgia and influenceing georgia to attach innocent people while they were sleeping. Will you sit down for somebody to kill your childredn in the middle of the night.

    i think russia did the right thing. And I am glad they are shifting their oil supply to china instead of europe because if the balance of power does change in this world we will soon end up in nuclear war caused by the the shallow mind of the united states and europe.
    Russia did not attack any body they were attach and they defended themselves period, get use to it

    • Posted By: Naver @ 09/02/2008 5:29:03 PM

      You are funny. So Russia gives people from a foreign country Russian passports so it can claim them as Russian citizens. Arms those "citizens", encourages them to antagonize that countries government , so they Have an excuse to send in the troops they have ready and waiting right at the border.......and it is some how Europe and the U.S.'s fault.......Wow that is a really interesting chain of logic you have going there.
      Perhaps you should lay off the drugs...or maybe just stop spouting nonsense.

      • Posted By: Yelyena @ 09/03/2008 9:04:19 AM

        Dear Naver, i would gladly hear your interpretation on what was goin on rigth after USSA fall - i mean war between S.Osset and Abkhaz and Gorg, and about what was the status of that regions and about all referendums they had. And about whether it is possible for me to become USA citizen if USA agree and i long for it? I ever ready to give you my e-mail just because i would asking you further after you answer my these quest. If you would answer of cause. And if would answer further.

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