This Isn’t the Return of History

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  • Posted By: Vasugopal @ 09/03/2008 3:24:31 AM

    Russia can not be silent spectator and witness being surrounded by hostile small nations supported and encouraged by U.S. and E.U. nations. Post cold war Russia was weak but now not so and sooner the Western nations take these factor into account in there geopoltical calculations, it is better. In this may herald the end of unilaterlism being witnessed and may lead to amore balance world.

  • Posted By: Vasugopal @ 09/03/2008 3:18:25 AM

    United States has entered a phase where post cold war unipolar policies shall not succeed and Russia has every right to have its own area of influence in its bordering countries. The Western nations are in no position to do to anything to stop a resurgent Russia. It may be good for world polity to have balancing forces against unilaterlism.

  • Posted By: kumarswamy @ 09/02/2008 11:14:27 PM

    You got it all wrong. Russians have suffered immensely for a very long time (from Russian revolution to present day). They made a mistake of moving into democracy too quickly before having economic/financial institutions in order (unlike China). The west applauded 'perestroika' of an idiot president and saw to it Soviet Union broke up - leaving Russia in poverty and watched its patheic situation with glee and further encouraged break away republics and neighbours to be hostile it.. Over the last few years, Russia has stabilized politically and economically, and they will no longer allow themselves to be surrounded by several 'Cubas'. They have enough fire power to face the west.

  • Posted By: Glenno @ 09/02/2008 10:58:22 PM

    "the real challenge we face in dealing with Moscow is that we have too few such ties"... Really, why is that?
    Because when Russia is a friend to the US, America encircle them with NATO, build army bases along their borders, interfere in their neighbours elections and turn their friends ageinst them, build Missile Defence Systems on their borders, step over Russian objections over every issue such as Kosovo, then arm Georgia to commit genocide against Russian citizens... The sad truth is that there is no punishment against Russia because the worst possible thing US could do is their standard policies against Russia!

  • Posted By: Glenno @ 09/02/2008 10:48:15 PM

    Well, I would like to see how US would respond if Russia placed nukes on Cuba...
    What Fareed has not understood is that in this world order Russia has more to gain from being feared than as a subordinated "friend". Russia has been ignored in all its major concerns, but if they are feared they can get bargaining chips. By America playing a global dictator, Russia can not get justice or security.

    Now things have changed. If the US illegally gives recognition to Kosovo, so can Russia do. If US encircles Russia with NATO and US army bases then Russia will do what they can to break this encirclement -which shouldnt be hard as 2/3 of ukraine does not want to be in a anti-Russian NATO. If US can buy the Ukrainian government in the "election" (the so called funding of democratic process) then Russia should encourage the Ukrainians to resist their US puppet government. And if US place missile defence in Poland, then Russia should do the same in Cuba or Venezuela.

  • Posted By: curryjm @ 09/02/2008 11:44:52 AM

    Am I missing something here? Didn't Georgia first invade South Ossetia? Was not this the precipitating event for Russia's invasion of Georgia?

    • Posted By: Naver @ 09/02/2008 12:02:26 PM

      Yes after South Ossetia was firing on Georgian troops with Russian weapons and HEY! what luck Russia just happen to have 15000 troops parked near by at a high level of readiness. What a coincidence......

      • Posted By: vic-0801 @ 09/02/2008 12:58:02 PM

        I guess not so near-by if 12 Russians peacekeepers were killed and shelling by Georgians continued for 14 hours...

        • Posted By: Naver @ 09/02/2008 5:41:13 PM

          What 12 peace keepers? Oh the peacekeepers that Russia claimed died but will provide no proof or names. Very shoddy. Skirmishes between "sepratists" and Georgian forces had been going on for weeks. Georgian forces were responding to shelling from "sepratists", Russia responded the minute Georgian forces started attacking the sepratist again. And if it was not premeditated by Russia, I guess it was just another coincidence the Russia was able to launch a coordinated large scale cyber attack against Georgia as well.

      • Posted By: vic-0801 @ 09/02/2008 1:10:45 PM

        It looks like not so near-by if Georgian shelling continued for 14 hours and 12 Russian peacekeepers had been killed before Russia got into action...

    • Posted By: mlbuie @ 09/02/2008 12:40:10 PM

      If Michigan tried to secede from the US, would you be ok with Canada coming in to attack us if we tried to take it back? Just, wow!

  • Posted By: orodionov @ 09/02/2008 2:49:55 PM

    tbourlon: Russia DIDN'T give passports. Russian passport is not the same as US tax rebate check that government gives! South Ossetian people INDIVIDUALLY asked for Russian citizenship and Russian government naturalized petitioners and issued passports. The fact that 90% of population ASKED for Russian citizenship is telling fact in itself! I would imagine this fact screams that South Ossetians DIDN'T want to be part of Georgia.

    • Posted By: MySpinOnThings @ 09/02/2008 3:15:56 PM

      Then the naturalized russian citizens should have left for their adopted country of Russia. Instead they took what they could from an internationally recognized sovereign nation since they have the region bully (Russia) on their side.

      • Posted By: orodionov @ 09/02/2008 5:27:29 PM

        Yep, sometimes it helps to have region bully on your side. Instead of getting wiped out by Georgia, they actually got what they wanted. Now they are just as happy as Kosovars who got another region bully: NATO to wrestle them away from Serbian republic. Did EU just invited poor Kosovars into Western Europe. Ohh no, they let them have their own banana republic

  • Posted By: bagocolts @ 09/02/2008 5:00:45 PM

    We wouldn't do a thing.... The current administration invaded Iraq thinking it would be a two-week, cable-tv war because they played fast and loose with intelligence. Anyone with any "intelligence" knows Iran is full-speed ahead toward a nuclear weapon and even telling us where it will be targeted. How come the bombs aren't falling on Tehran right now?? US = Paper Tiger

  • Posted By: ant123 @ 09/02/2008 3:05:39 PM

    At the end of this we still have only two options- appeasement or war. If we had more intergration with Russia we would not have more leverage they would. We would be afraid of what we might lose. They could care less because they have there energy needs met. Someone will be willing to sell them everything else.

    • Posted By: orodionov @ 09/02/2008 3:17:43 PM

      Third option is diplomacy! Serious, in-your-face diplomacy where two sides weigh in their national interests and come to compromise.

      • Posted By: ant123 @ 09/02/2008 3:32:29 PM

        In order for diplomacy to work both sides have to have something tangible to gain and something tangible to lose. Russia has nothing to lose short of war. And it will take war for the US just to get back to where it was tangibley.

        • Posted By: orodionov @ 09/02/2008 3:44:04 PM

          I disagree. Russia has much to loose. Its market economy is much more integrated with the west then ever before. Russian government is betting on foreign investments to diversify its economy. Its major cities are filled with signs of major US tech and industrial giants. That, in combination with senseless missile defense system can provide very juicy carrot and the stick for negotiation.

          • Posted By: ant123 @ 09/02/2008 4:00:21 PM

            That, missile defense system is not senseless. It is effective at what it is designed to do. What you mention about Russia's market economy was somewhat true with crude oil/ natural gas at $40 a barrael. It is not true at $100+ a barrel. They think they have the west over a barrel because they are pretty sure we will not go to war over Georgia (which by the west's weak response we proved them right) which is the only way they would leave in any circumstance that even could be good for the west..

            • Posted By: orodionov @ 09/02/2008 4:25:10 PM

              Effective at what? I agree missile defense system is effective at shifting strategic balance of nuclear standoff with Russia in US favor. Ever so slightly for now, but increasing in its potency as technology inevitably improves. It is senseless in its stated reason of deployment: protect against non-existent Iranian missiles. If it was actual goal, US could have worked with Russia and former soviet republics to counter threat more effectively, just like US and Russia work together to counter terrorism threats and supply of NATA troops in Afghanistan. In fact such offer was floated by Russian government a few years back. Again, Russia is very much interested in diversification of its oil-based economy despite high oil prices. They understand very well that current oil prices would not last. As such US has much carrot and stick to bring to negotiation table

              • Posted By: ant123 @ 09/02/2008 4:51:56 PM

                The missle defense system has no effect on the strategic balance of power between the US and Russia. It is far to small to do that. It would be effective against Iranian Shahab-4 missiles which can travel over 1800 miles. Or any even longer range missile they are working to develop. As for the oil prices they will remain high untill there is a significant drop in demand which does not look likely to happen any time soon.

  • Posted By: bagocolts @ 09/02/2008 4:43:12 PM

    NATO = Paper Tiger
    EU = Paper Tiger
    UN = Corrupt Paper Tiger
    Russia takes Georgia. Ukraine kept out of NATO to keep European lights on. Game, set, match.


  • Posted By: basedrum777 @ 09/02/2008 3:59:10 PM

    Why do the people on here think Russia went into Georgia? To help to create a free S. Ossetia? Many reports have Russia arming anti-Georgia separatists in the region including reports that they stood by while these forces pillaged areas that they took control of from Georgia after the conflict started. What exactly would Russia do if a portion of its current land mass decided to seceed from the country? Stand by while another country armed those people and allow it to go willingly. It is idiocy to have people on this board who are obviously pro-Russia argue that they were just trying to defend their peace-keepers in the region. The same people suppling weapons cannot possibly be peace-keepers by definition. Lets get off the woe is me Russia kick. They should be chastised for these activities and the 1000's displaced by their agression.

  • Posted By: musicmaster @ 09/02/2008 3:50:14 PM

    A few months ago Georgia amassed troops at the Abkhazian border for an attack. Russia thwarted this attempt by increasing its number of peacekeepers there. But instead of being praised by the West fo rits subtle reaction it was lambasted by Western diplomats.
    But Russia kept trying to play according the Western rules. When Georgia amassed troops for an invasion in Abkhazia it called Washington asking it to pressure Georgia not to go. Washington promissed to do so but one has to doubt what it actually told the Georgians. Yet when Georgia attacked Russia tried still to play according to international rules and when to the Security Council with a resolution asking all parties to renounce violence. It was vetoed by the US, the UK and France. If at that point Russia had only driven georgia back to its previous positions it would still have been lambasted by Western diplomats. And in addition it would have a nexr Georgian attack within a year.
    Similarly it had to recognnize the provincesin order to prevent the advent of Western "peacekeepers" who Russia since Kosovo cannot longer trust to be neutral.

    The article is also wrong about the Ukrain. The Ukrainian president asked for NATO membership before the war. The majority of the population did and does not like it. The Ukrainian population is quite neutral on the Georgian conflict.and the numebr of people that supports Georgia is about the same that supports Russia.

  • Posted By: daplane @ 09/02/2008 1:51:05 PM

    Georgia started first by shelling sleeping Tshinvali and causing hundreds of civilian casualties and thousands of refugees. Russia lost a precious day trying to get this to stop through diplomatic channels, without any success. It is only after that they started a major military operation, pushed the aggressors back into Georgia and confiscated the weapons (mostly provided/sponsored by the US, I might add) from Georgian military. As far as I'm concerned, this is a great accomplishment, not a "blunder".

    And Fareed Zakaria has finally exposed himself as a tendentious shill that he is.

    • Posted By: MySpinOnThings @ 09/02/2008 3:28:57 PM

      Here we go again....Someone who can't distinguish Russian equipment from American. The only T-64s, T-72, T- 80, BTRs (70 -80), AKS & AKM, BMP-3, & BM-21s I know of in the US arsenal are at military museums or OPFOR traning areas. These ARE Russian (or former East Boc) equipment. The only US equipment (I know of) siezed was two HUMVEES awaiting to be shipped back due to a training exercise with Georgian troops.

      Get real!!

  • Posted By: azadrafat @ 09/02/2008 3:27:59 PM

    How do youintend to lower oil prices dramatically? May be have two countries, with lots of oil, fight each other. Then let them flood the market with oil, of course, no one should interfere in their fight. This way oil prices will definitely fall dramatically. Some how this seems like dejavu. Oh yes, the Iraq and Iran war.

  • Posted By: refugecove @ 09/02/2008 3:16:35 PM

    You have to be Kidding. Russia did what it had to do after being attacked by Georgia. Let's at least try to stay with the facts of the matter. Revisonist history and the fires aren't even out yet.
    The EU is not going to do anything to Russia, no matter how hard Rice stamps her feet. All Russia has to do is turn of the Gas to Europe and who will have the last laugh. Let's be serious Russia had nothing to lose and everything to gain. It did what any nation would have done to protect it's citizens. And remeber shells were flying into Russia from Georgian forces. I personally have no stake in either side, but I certainly can't stand by and read obvious lies. Get real.
    Now that Georgia has been stopped after being encouraged to invade by our Bush government what has been the fall out? A new Missle deal for Iran and Syria for long range Russian nuclear capible systems. Is this what you can a blunder on Russia's part? So now Israel has a new threat at its door step with a new Russian Naval Base slated for Syria as well. Great planning there Bush, really showed the Russians up huh?
    Also let's remember also that Poland has now been put on notice that Russia will use Tactical Nuclear weapons if they do indeed place American missles on Polish soil. Great. Just perfect Bush. Thanks again.....

  • Posted By: RedHeaded StepChild @ 09/02/2008 3:08:52 PM

    Wow, this is one ignorant article. Where is the mention of S. Ossetia? Where is the mention of NATO, an organization formed as an alliance against Russia and the Soviet Union, getting ever closer to Russia? Do you really think THIS made Poland sign the missile agreement? What about all the help Russia have to the US over its war with Afghanistan, only to be completely thankless for it? Instead of writing another "Russian-bad, America-good" article, do some research.

  • Posted By: ant123 @ 09/02/2008 3:04:27 PM

    At the end of this we still have only two options- appeasement or war. If we had more intergration with Russia we would not have more leverage they would. We would be afraid of what we might lose. They could care less because they have there energy needs met. Someone will be willing to sell them everything else.

  • Posted By: tomlib @ 09/02/2008 3:01:53 PM

    I think it's important to ask ourselves what Russia's other choices were after Georgia launched a premediated attack on Russian allies on the opening day of the Olympics. How should Russia have responded I ask you Mr. Zakaria? And why didn't Secretary of State Rice, in Georgia the week before, suggest to the Georgians that attacking Russian allies might be a slight error in judgment? I mean, as long as were passing around blame.

  • Posted By: Tundra/Desert @ 09/02/2008 3:00:49 PM

    One thing "the West" (if there is such thing) has to understand, things aren't always simple. The surest way to screw things up is to make decisions and judgments based on incomplete information; far worse is to base them on ideology, no matter what kind of ideology. An example in hand---"Russia has become more dysfunctional, corrupt, dictatorial and assertive". More dictatorial and more assertive, yes. But less corrupt, and far less dysfunctional. Why so? no such analysis in this article, only an attempt to fit facts into a narrowly defined ideology.

  • Posted By: orodionov @ 09/02/2008 2:59:06 PM

    Astro_eng: (US != bad) && (RUSSIA != good). Instead national interests exist and governments that suppose to protect them . US government didn't see or understand its real national interests and committed foreign policy blunders of historic proportions. Russia sees its interests clearly and capitalized on historic blunders of US foreign policy

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