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This Isn’t the Return of History

NEWSWEEK

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The problem is not that Russia has been integrated into a world order that has failed to deter it, but rather that the country remains largely unintegrated—and thus feels it has little to lose by breaking the rules. Some of Moscow's isolation may have been caused by Western foreign policy—certainly that is the Russian perception—but more has to do with oil. As the price of oil and other natural resources has risen over the past decade, Russia has become more dysfunctional, corrupt, dictatorial and assertive. And oil wealth everywhere—from Venezuela to Iran to Russia—breeds independence from and indifference to international norms, markets and rules.

The single best strategy for bringing Russia in line with the civilized world would be to dramatically lower oil prices, which would force the country to integrate or stagnate. Pending that, we should shore up Georgia and assist countries like Poland and Ukraine. At the same time we should stay engaged with the Russians so that we continue to work on issues of common concern—like nuclear proliferation—but also to develop leverage with them. A strategy that further isolates Moscow would only reduce the levers that we have to affect its behavior.

Imagine if we had kicked Russia out of the G8 and broken most ties with Moscow—as the Republican nominee, John McCain, and many neoconservatives have long wanted to do. Then, when the Russians attacked Georgia, we would have had only two options—appeasement or war.

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Posted By: schizhang @ 10/01/2008 9:28:14 PM

"Pro-Russian readers - apparently from Russia Today propaganda machine", are you sure you are not living under some sort of propaganda? Propaganda labeled as "Freedom of reporting" is more harmful than propaganda labeled "propaganda".
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Posted By: Georgegeorgian @ 09/15/2008 1:55:21 AM

to nawawimohamad: South Ossetia never has been "Russian territory"!! One simply needs to look at the Caucasus map - there is 15000 feet high Caucasian Mountain Chain between South Ossetia and Russia.
The term "South Ossetia" was invented by Stalin and other Bolsheviks in 20s when they annexed Georgia. Ossetians living in Samachablo (that is historical name of South Ossetia) have supported Russian Red Army in invasion against independent Georgia, and that was sort of "reimbursement". When South Ossetian Autonomous Region was created inside Georgia Soviet Republic, Tskhinvali, its "capital" had only 200 inhabitants of Ossetian origin. Ossetians mainly have been coming for seasonal work from Real Ossetia (Alania) which is North Ossetia in Russia. Interesting fact is that Russia doesn't grant "independence" to millions of Tatars and Bashkirs, and Chechens, and Ingushs, and only has tears to cry about 40,000 South Ossetians. Why? Because unlike those peoples mentioned above - South Ossetia is a mechanishm to control and panish other state - Georgia.
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Posted By: Georgegeorgian @ 09/14/2008 6:38:07 PM

You had a choice in Chechnya! 100,000 terminated people - did they have right for independece? You have lied about 2,000 people daid in first 2 hours of Georgain artillery shelling - in fact 133 persons died in Tskhinvali from South Ossetian side - reported by Western journalists. But the state who explodes its own sleeping citizens in blockhouses for settling a war, sinks its own sailors in Kursk rejecting foreign help, and kills its own children in Beslan justifying counterterrorist attacks, will do ANYTHING and will try to justify ANYTHING by the same cynical "proves" and "grounds", as in Katine (Poland), as in Finland, as in Budapest, as in Prague, as in Kabul...