Crackdown

They've occupied the prime minister's office, stormed airports near popular beach resorts and crippled national railway service across Thailand. Next up, the coalition of antigovernment agitators calling itself the People's Alliance for Democracy vows to cut power, water and telephone service in the capital, Bangkok, then incite labor unions to declare a general strike. Though such tactics echo past "people power" uprisings in neighboring Indonesia and the Philippines, they're means to a very different end in Thai politics today: the People's Alliance campaign, launched back in May, aims to unseat a government put into power just seven months ago in elections widely hailed as free and fair.

This morning, Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej struck back in defense of his government, declaring emergency rule just hours after rival mobs clashed on Bangkok's streets. His decree bans gatherings of more than five people, prohibits media reports with a propensity to "cause panic" and puts sweeping police powers into the hands of Thailand's military, which is often the final arbiter in Thai politics. The generals seized power in a September 2006 coup--the country's 13th since 1945--and held it until democracy was restored with national elections last December. Ironically, Prime Minister Samak and his allies posted a landslide victory in that contest by opposing martial law and pledging to revive the populism of ousted tycoon-turned-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Yet in a televised decree Tuesday, Samak described emergency rule as "the softest means available" to restore order in the country of 65 million, then added: "Because the situation turned out this way, I had no other choice."

However reluctant, Samak's decree stuck a blow to Thailand's already-fragile democracy. The question now is whether it will enable him to restore order without further bloodshed, or play into the hands of demonstration leaders who for months have sought to goad a violent crackdown. The two sides disagree on just about everything, including the extent to which Thailand's economy should embrace globalization, the role of foreign investors in the economy and the suitability of Western-style democracy in the predominantly Buddhist kingdom. Samak and his People's Power Party gained power by courting the rural vote, which outnumbers the Alliance's mainly urban power base. Unable to win on the hustings, "the PAD's ability to paralyze the government has become its instrument of choice," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, who heads Chulalongkorn University's Institute of Security and International Studies in Bangkok. "They want to bring the Thai economy and industry to heal and show that the government has no control."

The chaos spreading across Thailand is largely the vision of a single figure, media baron Sondhi Limthongkul. In early 2006 he led mass demonstrations against Prime Minister Thaksin, not letting up until the military staged a bloodless coup some eight months later. Although he initially supported a return to full democracy, Sondhi changed his position after the candidates he backed fared poorly in elections last December, declaring the victors--and Thailand's electoral system--corrupt. Now, his People's Alliance supports limited democracy in which 70 percent of parliamentarians are appointed.

In a recent NEWSWEEK interview, Sondhi expressed the view that "representative democracy is not [currently] suitable for Thailand." He also claimed Thailand to be part of a "Third World [where] people lack intelligence and wisdom" and therefore are easily manipulated by opportunistic politicians. His conclusion: "We have seen representative democracy in Thailand for 75 years, and it always fails."

Sondhi and his allies began losing out when Thaksin used rural empowerment to build a national political machine following the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. Those who populate the People's Alliance include prominent Bangkok-based politicians, retired military officers and conservative religious leaders as well as union bosses representing state enterprises and civil servants. This "old elite" is seen to fear deregulation, unfettered global competition and greater foreign participation in Thailand's economy that both Samak and Thaksin favor. They have accused both leaders of manipulating poor, uneducated rural voters to upset Thailand's long-established social order and even challenge the monarchy.