Thicker Than Water?

Such concerns don't help a city still struggling to recover. Mayor Ray Nagin and other officials argue that the fact that New Orleans emerged intact from Gustav shows that the city is secure. But residents like Ike Spears, a prominent New Orleans attorney, believe that the relatively mild storm didn't really test the levee system and reinforced a sense of the city's precariousness. "A lot of people are getting unnerved, beginning to wonder if they want to deal with this drill every year," he says. That worries state Rep. Cedric Richmond, who's the leading candidate for the seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. William Jefferson. People "need to be assured that the infrastructure is in place so they can feel confident to invest in their homes again," he says. "This is critical, and doable." Yet so far, only about 72 percent of the city's pre-Katrina population has returned, and that figure appears to have stalled, according to an August study by the Brookings Institution and the Greater New Orleans Community Data Center (GNOCDC).

By drawing attention once again to the dangers of living in low-elevation areas, Gustav has called into question the decision of city leaders to rebuild in every part of the city. It's an exceedingly fraught subject in New Orleans, one thoroughly entangled in the city's complex racial politics. Two years ago, when an urban-planning committee appointed by Nagin recommended that some of the areas hit hardest by Katrina, ones that had high concentrations of African-American residents, should be yielded to marshland, blacks revolted. Nagin ditched the recommendations and vowed to rebuild everywhere. Today, the issue remains just as toxic. No politician with any sense of self-preservation would advocate closing off certain neighborhoods to redevelopment. Take Sen. Mary Landrieu, who's up for re-election in November. "Every community in New Orleans deserves to exist and be rebuilt," she says. Yet many question whether even a robust flood-protection system can truly safeguard the most vulnerable neighborhoods.

In the end, market forces may accomplish what the politicians find untenable. Some neighborhoods clearly aren't recovering. The Lower Ninth Ward has only 11 percent of its pre-Katrina households, according to an analysis by the GNOCDC. In neighboring Holy Cross, the figure is 35 percent. Residents in these areas face a host of obstacles: many are poor and can't afford reconstruction costs and skyrocketing insurance premiums. "I don't think they're going to rebuild those areas," says Gilda Johnson, a social worker who fled to Atlanta during Gustav. "Only the people who can afford to put up with hurricane expenses may be the ones who live here." With storms much stronger than Gustav likely to come, those costs may only climb higher.

© 2008