Transforming Jacob Zuma

Zuma is trying to position himself as the answer to these ills. His rise stands in part as a direct rebuke to Mbeki, whose second term in office runs out next year. Though initially well respected, Mbeki has proved a colossal disappointment for South Africa. His autocratic style has provoked resentment, as has his inattention toward the poor and the dysfunctional bureaucracy. And his "quiet diplomacy" failed to soften the repression of neighboring Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe. These shortcomings have left South Africa "hungry for leadership," says Aubrey Matshiqi, an analyst at the Center for Policy Studies in Johannesburg.

Zuma's election as the head of the ANC last December was as much a vote against Mbeki as an endorsement of the new man. But Zuma is using the opportunity he's been given to push for real change. During the worst days of the Zimbabwe crisis this summer, when Mbeki seemed to be sitting on his hands, Zuma's old trade-union pals and Communist Party allies sprang into action, refusing, for example, to unload a shipment of Chinese arms bound for Mugabe's thugs. Zuma also publicly slammed Mugabe for engineering the violence.

At home, Zuma has proposed tackling South Africa's terrible violent-crime problem by rejiggering the legal system to "bias" it in favor of victims—and if that doesn't work, has hinted he might favor reinstating the death penalty. On issues ranging from education to affirmative action, he's begun staking out the middle ground, highlighting Mbeki's failures while using his own considerable charm to win over skeptics. "Compared to Mbeki, [Zuma] looks like a better alternative," says Matshiqi. Zuma is "less mean-spirited, and more connected to the concerns of ordinary citizens," he says. "He has an easy rapport with people," adds Adam Habib, of the University of Johannesburg. "And every time Mbeki creates a disaster, Zuma comes to the fore."

The president-in-waiting has taken great pains to polish his tarnished image. He's publicly apologized for the shower comment and has criticized the Mbeki government for not doing enough to curb HIV infections (about 11 percent of the population carries the virus). Zuma has also begun ardently wooing international investors. Since January, he's traveled to Paris, New York and Davos, meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and representatives of Lehman Brothers and other investors, promised to listen to economic advice and stick to the established course. Perhaps most remarkable, Zuma has even reached out to South Africa's whites, scoring major points with a recent visit to a community of poor Afrikaners outside Johannesburg, where he argued that their plight mirrored that of the country's black underclass. Zuma has also deployed senior ANC officials to meet with Afrikaner groups in places like Pretoria and Stellenbosch, the intellectual heartland of Afrikaner culture, to reassure them of their place in South African society. "This has gone over very well," says Frederic Van Zyl Slabbert, chancellor of Stellenbosch University. "Zuma is saying [to whites] that the past is over."

To reinforce this notion, Zuma has proposed reforming South Africa's affirmative action programs in a way that would protect skilled whites and stem the massive brain drain that is crippling South Africa's health-care, scientific and engineering communities. To help him formulate this and other middle-of-the-road policies, Zuma has surrounded himself with a small but effective group of experts who recommend modest, almost boring changes of course, with nothing to rock the boat. One of Zuma's closest advisers, Gwede Mantashe, recently met with a group of asset managers, accountants and stockbrokers in Cape Town to press this point home. Mantashe is a communist, but instead of talking about revolution, he discussed ways to accelerate South Africa's rate of investment, fight crime and develop a progressive social safety net. "I would be telling you a lie if I said there wasn't going to be change," he told the group. "But this isn't about business versus the poor, it's about creating an environment for business while tending to the needs of the poor."

Such attitudes have impressed observers. "If Zuma relies on this corps of serious-minded people, and reaches out to experts, I think South Africa will be in a much better position," says Mampele Ramphele, a prominent academic and businesswoman. She says that Zuma's message is, "'We know something, but we're going to listen to the experts and mold a concrete plan forward.' I'm very encouraged." "Zuma has done a good job the last couple of months," adds senior associate at Saint Anthony's CollegeOxfordWilliam Gumede. "He says, 'Look, I know I've been seen as a monster, but I'm not'." Gumede, who has met privately with many of the investors after the fact to assess their reactions, says that Zuma's audiences have been impressed. Whereas Mbeki talked in riddles, he says, Zuma is straightforward about his plans and open to advice. "Of the businesspeople I've spoken with, 98 percent of them feel maybe he's not so bad."