Transforming Jacob Zuma

Even some skeptics are starting to come around. As the Institute for Democracy's Friedman, who has also been meeting with some of South Africa's top CEO's to assess their reactions to Zuma, explains, "The first question I ask is, who thinks Jacob Zuma will be a problem. Eighty-six percent say yes. But my next question is, who thinks their company should engage Zuma? Eighty-six percent also say yes. There are other people they'd be more likely to trust, but they recognize the need to talk to him." Chief executives from top companies like Anglo-American, Investec and others have begun working with Zuma to chart a path forward, and Zuma has talked about establishing a "pact" between businesses, government and unions to address problems like low wages, strikes and inflation. This is "something Mbeki didn't ever do," says Gumede, and "that's what we need in South Africa."

Of course, none of this guarantees Zuma will prove good for South Africa. The criminal charges against him have caused chaos that could mount. His long-term legal problems aren't over: Zuma's onetime business partner, Shabir Shaik, has been jailed for bribing none other than Zuma himself. Shaik's appeals to the Supreme Court have failed three times in the past six months. And Zuma's bid to block prosecutors from obtaining evidence against him have failed, too. Every day, newspapers are filled with new developments, undermining the public trust Zuma is trying to create. And he could still be convicted.

Critics also point out that while Zuma may have moderated his style and substance, many of his supporters have become more radical. The opposition Democratic Alliance plans to pursue charges against the sitting president of the ANC's Youth League for saying that he and others like him would "kill for Zuma." And judges on the Constitutional Court have accused John Hlophe of Cape Town's high court of trying to improperly influence other jurists to rule in favor of Zuma (charges Hlophe rejects). "The state and the ruling party have become largely contemptuous of the legal system," says Feinstein. "I have a sense that they're prepared to undermine the rule of law constantly to get their objectives." He may have a point: no less a figure than Don Mkwanazi, the chairman of the Friends of Jacob Zuma (an organization that aims to raise several million dollars for the leader's legal defense), says that "in African culture, if I give Zuma a gift, it's normal; it's not a bribe. Some of my own white colleagues think Zuma is tainted, but not the majority of black South Africans. This is not London or Geneva—this is Africa."

Such comments alarm critics. So does the fact that some Zuma supporters are pushing for a political solution to his corruption charges. Helen Zille, the leader of South Africa's opposition Democratic Alliance party, calls this an attempt to undermine the Constitution and put South Africa on a path toward "lawlessness."

While such worries are well founded, Zuma's detractors had best come to terms with the man. He's still popular within the ANC and the hands-down favorite to become the country's next leader. And while aspects of his personality may seem scary, his roots as a peacemaker run deep. Zuma is now credited with helping end the postapartheid violence that racked KwaZulu-Natal province in the late '80s and '90s, when the ANC and the rival Inkatha party faced off over who would lead the province under the new government. The fact that violence was avoided "is largely because of Zuma laying the groundwork and relentlessly pursuing the peace process, and exhausting everyone through talks," says Mike Sutcliffe, Durban city manager and an Mbeki supporter.

If Zuma is going to hold South Africa together, he'll need to capitalize on such skills. When Nelson Mandela was elected president in 1994, thousands of South Africans fled the country fearing that he'd nationalize the country's biggest industries and make other radical moves. That didn't happen, and now many of the refugees wish they had stayed behind. Zuma has proposed nothing nearly as dramatic, yet South Africans are once again fleeing; though statistics are hard to come by, a recent bank survey showed that the proportion of homeowners trying to sell because they are emigrating has doubled in the last six months. "We're going to take a hit, and that's a dilemma," says Habib. But South Africa has been through tougher times, and if Zuma succeeds with the agenda he's proposed, his constituents—white, black, rich, poor—could all benefit from it.

With Karen MacGregor in Durban

© 2008