SPONSORED BY:

How Singh Blew India’s Moment

 

Email To A Friend

Please fill in the following information and we'll email this link.

Separate multiple addresses with commas

SPONSORED BY
 

But Congress's victory in 2004 came with only 27 percent of the vote and no clear mandate. The party was forced to court coalition partners and outside allies, including a block of far-left parties led by India's communists, who would become a yoke restraining Singh's every move.

The other enduring obstacle that emerged from 2004 was Sonia Gandhi. Congress had contested the election without announcing whom it would make prime minister. Many party faithful wanted Gandhi, the party leader and the widow of slain former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi—and thus the heiress to the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. But the Italian-born former waitress had been reluctantly drafted into politics, and the BJP was up in arms over the idea that a woman of foreign origins might take the top job. Fearing such divisiveness—and with a nudge from India's president A.P.J. Kalam—Gandhi shocked the nation by passing the post to Singh, a highly regarded economist with a long history of government service. She remained party leader, however. Congress officials described her as the CEO while Singh would be the chief operating officer—a sign of the limits on his power.

Singh didn't help his authority by calling himself the "accidental prime minister." Yet to at first his selection seemed a happy accident. After all, he is the father of India's economic miracle. While serving as Finance minister in 1991, he'd begun dismantling the "license raj" that had promoted select businesses as national champions and severely limited entrepreneurship and foreign competition. When Singh became prime minister, there were high hopes he would extend liberalization to the moribund farm sector and the largely state-controlled financial industry. Given the strong economy, low interest rates, low inflation and the swarm of foreign investors, 2004 seemed the perfect moment to push for further change.

Four years later, however, remarkably little has been accomplished. "I can't think of many things Singh has done that have increased sustainable growth," says Seema Desai, an analyst with the Eurasia Group in London. India's agricultural productivity remains appallingly low. This sector employs 60 percent of the population, but contributes just 1 percent to the country's GDP growth. In finance, the government still controls 70 percent of all banking assets, most life-insurance companies and all pension providers. Foreign investment in banking remains highly restricted, and markets in currency, corporate debt, derivatives and commodity futures are underdeveloped or nonexistent. The nation's retail and industrial sectors also need further development, and its tax system remains arcane and punitive.

Singh's personal support for greater liberalization was not enough to sway his reluctant communist partners. Now that he's finally severed himself from the left, Congress is expected to take some limited stabs at banking, pension and insurance reforms. But Singh can't risk losing votes in the coming elections, and state banking employees are already threatening strikes if privatization and restructuring move forward. Agricultural reform is also off the table.

In retrospect, Singh should have broken with the communists far earlier, as many pundits urged. But the consummate technocrat—the first Indian prime minister never to have won a direct election—was too cautious and averse to confrontation for the strong-arming needed to keep a coalition in line. Nor were such moves his to make. For Singh doesn't control Congress—Gandhi does. And she favored social-welfare programs, not economic reform. Her agenda also fit the plans of Congress's political handlers, who thought it would be the best way to rebuild the party's deteriorating political base.

Label

Newsweek Top Stories
Visions of a Decade
Visions of a Decade

From 2000-2009, one photo per month.

The Failure of Copenhagen
The Failure of Copenhagen

Why there could be a silver lining in a failed climate treaty.

Sex Scandals of the 2000s
Sex Scandals of the 2000s

From John Edwards to Mark Sanford, the decade's memorable affairs.

118 Days in Hell
118 Days in Hell

A NEWSWEEK journalist recounts his captivity in Iran.

Discuss

Sponsored by

Member Comments

  • Posted By: bvijaykumar @ 10/11/2008 11:13:00 PM

    If ever there has been a BIASED article on the current stae of affiairs in India - well this article does take the cake. I am not an ardent fan of the congress party BUT i have a grudging admiration at the way Singh has handled doestic affairs in a complex stratified country with issues that have no parallels in the world. Arm chair philophists and writiers can easily throw accusations in the wind but under the circumstances Singh has done an admirable job. I have watched India over the last few decades and a leader of Singh's calibre unfortunately has never surfaced - most of them have worked with naroow self interests that nver kept the country ahead of their / party's aspirtatiosn. I do agree that the communist party (who I suspect work for China to undermine India's progress) has been most instrumental in the downfall of the country. I am however not convinced about all the examples of inflation, high food costs etc being blamed on Singh - which country can the author confirm has been isolated from these global trends due to their leaders acrtion. I await this detaisl in anticpation

  • Posted By: Bimal @ 09/29/2008 12:00:41 PM

    While I fully agree to the observations made by the author about the failures of Dr. Singh's government in capitalizing on the boom in India, I do not understand the common thinking, including in this article, that reforms in banking, insurance and pension sector means privatization. Before concluding that since the government controls most of the assets in this sector, the reforms have not taken place, the author should have examined the major improvements that have happened in reduction of red tape in these sectors, improved customer service, openness of government owned banks and insurance companies to develop and provide products that match the private sector offerings, performance-driven management systems, automation and technology adoption making transaction processing much faster etc. In fact, a yet poor country like India (as it comes out in the article too) cannot afford to have private sector play with pension funds and then get into a mess with the market making common men penniless. We are seeing such possibilities in probably the most privatized economy of the US. In a totally reverse move to privatization, the US government had to bail out two mortgage funding companies, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, almost nationalizing it.

    The reforms do not become good just because reforms are implemented faster and they are mostly through privatization. The economy of India has shown resilience against international and Asian crisis most of the time in last two decades because of the slow and cautious approach that successive governments have taken in implementing reforms in various sectors.This is probably the best way for India to move further on reforms

  • Posted By: sumpingrey @ 09/17/2008 1:14:48 PM

    Manmohan Singh has proved to be the WORST prime minister India has ever had, bar none. The gap between promise and delivery has never been higher, expectations raised sky high were never met. Ancient Nehru dynasty loyalists like Arjun Singh and that embarassment Natwar Singh were given responsibilities for which they werent prepared...with that weak a leadership, everyone wanted to be first among equals.
    The rate at which I am taxed is absurd, considering I never get the infrastructure for my own money, earned by compromising personal life and peace of mind. The private sector - the only true meritorious institution left in the country after Arjun Singh took his axe through the IIT/ IIMs - is threatened with reservation, without ANY effort to raise primary education levels for the so-called 'lower castes'. And all this from an ECONOMIST????? I mean, cool Singh's kids are all in the US, settled and enjoying the fruits of said country. That's why he can go about finishing India.

Reply

Report Abuse

Enter comments if any for reporting abuse

My Take

Customize the NEWSWEEK homepage
to feature your favorite columnists.

Customize Now