From Seneca Falls to … Sarah Palin?

Signs of a return to issues emerged on Saturday with a poll showing that McCain has lost male voters in Ohio since he picked Palin. "Ohioans seem more concerned about which candidate will fix their ailing economy than about the vice presidential nominees," says Peter Brown, assistant director of the polling institute at Quinnipiac University in Connecticut.

Economic insecurity applies to both men and women, but women tend to feel more economically vulnerable than men, says Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg. "In part that's because they are. But women are also usually the ones taking the kids to the doctor and pushing the grocery cart through the aisles."

The McCain campaign thinks Palin—with her working-class vibe—will help on this front. Obama is hoping to capitalize on these concerns, too. Dana Singister, Obama's senior adviser on women voters, says the campaign is very focused on voters' fears about "kitchen-table, pocketbook issues, what they're facing in their households every day: economic security, retirement security, concerns that their health care will be there when they need it." Although polls show the abortion issue may not move many votes, a significant proportion of women wrongly believe that McCain has a pro-choice record. So the Obama camp is also planning to highlight McCain's position: he opposes abortion, except in cases of rape, incest or where a woman's life may be at risk. He believes Roe v. Wade should be overturned. Though most voters know that Palin opposes abortion, many wrongly believe she favors exceptions in cases of rape and incest.

It is difficult to predict if the Palin effect will endure in the face of a recession and an unpopular war. These are the issues that will decide the election. And Palin's impact may well have been initially inflated—polls are very fluid following nomination conventions, and can fluctuate daily. Palin has not yet been tested by the full glare of media scrutiny. Her confidence is appealing; what of her substance? She has been interviewed in her new role only once, by Charles Gibson. In that appearance she seemed awkward, uncomfortable and rehearsed. With voters already harboring serious reservations about her experience, particularly when it comes to foreign policy and the economy, performances like that one will do nothing to assuage them. In the NEWSWEEK POLL, only 45 percent thought she was qualified (49 percent of women), outranking only Dan Quayle among recent veep candidates. Seven in 10 thought Joe Biden was ready. The initial buzz and excitement are bound to fade. Geraldine Ferraro is convinced Palin's dream run is temporary. Polls go down: "Ours did. People never vote for vice president. We drew huge crowds. The Secret Service told me that we had the largest crowds they'd seen since JFK … I would see these men in the audience with their little girls on their shoulders, saying, 'You got to see the first woman nominated. This is historic.' Hillary saw the same thing, and Palin will too. It was exciting, and people wanted to be a part of the candidacy. But it doesn't necessarily translate into making a difference on Election Day and who becomes president."

Ferraro believes that in some ways the symbolic power of watching a woman run for higher office can be victory enough. "Every time a woman runs," she says, "women win." One suspects Sarah Barracuda might not completely agree: she seems plenty interested in both running and winning.

With Pat Wingert, Karen Springen, Kurt Soller, Richard Wolffe, Suzanne Smalley, Holly Bailey, Eve Conant and Daniel Stone

© 2008