Riders on the Storm

Such short-term thinking poses challenges for public officials, who constantly struggle with offering an accurate description of the perils at hand and at the same time ensuring that people don't become complacent. The key, say researchers, is to retain credibility. In the buildup to Gustav, Mayor Ray Nagin struck an alarmist tone, describing the coming hurricane as "the mother of all storms." That, along with the fresh memory of Katrina, jolted the public, which evacuated en masse. But given that Gustav proved to be relatively weak, will residents trust the mayor's assessment next time? With Ike, the National Weather Service created a stir when it asserted that those who failed to heed evacuation orders in the coastal zone would face "certain death." "If you say it, you have to be right," says Everly. "If it doesn't happen, then it works against you rather than for you. People will think, 'It didn't happen last time he said that.' … 'Certain death' is a very powerful message. You sure as heck better be right."
 
Beyond language, leaders can also wield their authority, of course. And in recent years, lawmakers in many states have granted officials additional powers to enforce evacuation orders. In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the Center for Law and the Public's Health, a joint venture of Georgetown and Johns Hopkins universities, set out to help states revise their laws to handle disasters more effectively. It proposed the Model State Emergency Health Powers Act, which included portions addressing mandatory evacuations and curfews to control the movement of the population. So far, 37 state legislatures have adopted the proposal in part or in whole, according to Lawrence Gostin, a professor at Georgetown University Law Center who co-authored the model regulations. Moreover, says Redlener, the trend among state and local officials is toward taking a harder line against recalcitrant residents. Authorities are ordering holdouts to stay on their property, threatening them with arrest if they step off it or violate curfew, and making clear that first-responder services won't be guaranteed in case of emergency.
 
That said, there are limits to what the government can do. It can't typically "forcibly remove property owners, even under risk of death," says James Hodge, Jr., an associate professor at the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University who also worked on the model act. "The government may be able to do that when your remaining presents a significant risk to others." But he says such scenarios would more likely involve communicable diseases than hurricanes. Vulnerable populations, such as children, the elderly and the disabled, are another matter, however. "Children are considered wards of the state and are much different than autonomous adults," he says. "The government has full authority." Hodge and others think it's conceivable that one day, parents could be charged with endangering their children for ignoring evacuation orders. Redlener says that "goes beyond individual adults putting themselves at risk."

In some cases, of course, as Covington can attest, the pain of having acted in a way that may have contributed to the loss or injury of a loved one is surely punishment enough.

With Jacqui Goddard

© 2008