Playing Emmy Roulette

This year's Emmy nominations were, by and large, so surprisingly on the mark that I even followed the Creative Arts Emmys. That's the ceremony that takes place before the main Emmy telecast, the one nobody usually gives a whit about. The big stars usually don't attend, even when nominated, and most of the awards go to bespectacled people no one recognizes. But I'm so caught up in Emmy fever, I'll take every scrap I can get. And now I'm even more engaged because some of the winners announced on Creative Arts night reflect my hopes, fears, joys and concerns over what might take place when the rest of the awards are handed out this Sunday.

Glynn Turman, who did two episodes of "In Treatment" as a grieving father, nabbed the guest actor in a drama category. It was Turman's first time winning the Emmy after decades in the industry, and he upset more obvious choices like Robin Williams's appearance in "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit." On the other hand, there's Kathryn Joosten's win for guest actress in a comedy. Joosten, who plays neighborhood curmudgeon Ms. McCluskey on "Desperate Housewives," won in 2005 and now again by surpassing a more deserving trio of actresses who appeared on "30 Rock" (Edie Falco, Carrie Fisher and Elaine Stritch). And then you have Cynthia Nixon's victory in guest actress in a drama, for a spot on "SVU" in which she played a woman who fakes multiple personalities to get out of a double-murder rap. When I saw Nixon in last season's "SVU" premiere, I told everyone who would listen that she had the category locked, just so I 'd like to go on record as having said it.

So from the Creative Arts Awards, I took these conclusions: sometimes the Emmy voters get it right, other times wrong, and I may actually be able to accurately predict which way it will go. That said, here's my take on the major categories, an analysis that hopefully serves both my idealist and cynical urges.

DRAMA CATEGORIES

Lead Actor
Gabriel Byrne, " In Treatment "
Bryan Cranston, " Breaking Bad "
Michael C. Hall, " Dexter "
Jon Hamm, " Mad Men "
Hugh Laurie, " House "
James Spader, " Boston Legal "

Spader hasn't lost this category any of the three times he's been nominated. Last year, he looked as baffled as anyone to be collecting it yet again, and no one would be surprised if he took home No. 4. But this is exactly why I think he could be vulnerable. He's won the award three times, but never two years consecutively. I think there will be an upset, and while any of these nominees would be deserving, Hamm seems the most likely to coast to a victory based on the deafening critical buzz around his show. On the other hand, he submitted "The Wheel," the season finale that gave him a huge emotional speech that loses its impact if you didn't see everything that preceded it. Emmy loves "House," so Laurie seems a likely choice.

Lead Actress
Glenn Close, "Damages"
Sally Field, "Brothers and Sisters"
Mariska Hargitay, "Law and Order: Special Victims Unit"
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace"
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"

Another category full of deserving competitors, but there's no good reason to think Close doesn't have this in the bag. Her performance as civil-action litigator Patty Hewes was ferocious, and it's worth noting that of all the nominees, Close is the only one nominated for her performance in a pilot. That episode provided her with top-shelf material—Close's is the only show also nominated for Best Writing.

Supporting Actor
Ted Danson, "Damages"
Michael Emerson, "Lost"
Zeljko Ivanek, "Damages"
William Shatner, "Boston Legal"
John Slattery, "Mad Men"

This one is between Danson and Emerson, both of whom have a good shot at winning. Emerson's performance as Ben Linus is one of the most complex and unnerving I've ever seen, but somehow he lost last year to his castmate, Terry O'Quinn. With "Lost" back on the upswing, this might be the year to recognize him. On the other hand, Emmy voters have a soft spot for Danson dating back to his "Cheers" days. His dark turn as millionaire Arthur Frobisher is the best work of his career, and who doesn't love a comeback story? I'm giving him the slight edge. However, don't rule out two dark horses: Shatner, whose show Emmy loves for some indiscernible reason, and Ivanek, who was equally spectacular in "Damages."

Supporting Actress
Candice Bergen, "Boston Legal"
Rachel Griffiths, "Brothers and Sisters"
Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy"
Dianne Wiest, "In Treatment"
Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy"

I'm going to go head over gut on this one. My gut is telling me Wilson will win. But while I don't really get the whole "Boston Legal" thing one bit, it's very well represented among the nominees, so I can't imagine it'll walk away with nothing. Bergen's performance seems likely simply because the other nominees have some negatives. Wiest's show is too talky, Griffith's performance is a bit too subtle, and Wilson and Oh are on a show that seems to have fallen out of Emmy's good graces.