Playing Emmy Roulette

Series
"Boston Legal"
"Damages"
"Dexter"
"House"
"Lost"
"Mad Men"

Were it up to me, I'd give the thing to the criminally underappreciated "Dexter," which is finally getting a little recognition after being shut out following its first season. But the show is too dark for many, the violence too off-putting. I think it's between "Mad Men" and "Damages," the shows that shocked the television industry by becoming the first from basic cable to be nominated here. "Damages" could pull off an upset, but it seems unlikely simply because the show is so highly serialized, it's hard to imagine a voter being able to make heads or tails of it after watching a half-dozen nonsequential episodes. "Mad Men" is ponderous and snail-slow, but here it's an advantage. It's hypnotic, but not quite as demanding.

COMEDY CATEGORIES

Lead Actor
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"
Steve Carell, "The Office"
Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies"
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"
Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men"

This is one of the toughest to call. Baldwin seems likely to win. His episode submission, "Rosemary's Baby," features a virtuosic scene in which he impersonates different members of Tracy Jordan's (Tracy Morgan) family to hilariously offensive effect. But then you have Carell, who despite the accolades and awards for his show, has never won the Emmy for his performance. His submission, "Goodbye, Toby" is just as strong. Moreover, it was an hourlong episode, so there's just more of him to love. I think Baldwin will edge him out, but I'd be just as happy with a Carell victory.

Lead Actress
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?"
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty"
Tina Fey, "30 Rock"
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "New Adventures of Old Christine"
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds"

Applegate is deserving for her absolutely charming performance as amnesiac Samantha Newly. But Fey has the momentum on her side. Her show, which she created and runs day to day, garnered the most nominations for a comedy in Emmy history. It's hard to imagine not recognizing her for all the hard work. Plus she submitted a good episode, "Sandwich Day," in which Liz Lemon deals with the sudden return of her ex-boyfriend.

Supporting Actor
Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men"
Kevin Dillon, "Entourage"
Neil Patrick Harris, "How I Met Your Mother"
Jeremy Piven, "Entourage"
Rainn Wilson, "The Office"

This one is a two-man race between Harris and Piven. Piven has won this category for the past two years on the strength of his Ari Gold character, but I don't know a single soul who was thrilled with the listless last season of "Entourage." That leaves an opportunity for Harris, who was denied by Piven last year, to turn the tables on his nemesis.

Supporting Actress
Kristin Chenoweth, "Pushing Daisies"
Amy Poehler, "Saturday Night Live"
Jean Smart, "Samantha Who?"
Holland Taylor, "Two and a Half Men"
Vanessa Williams, "Ugly Betty"

I do hope I'm right here. Williams's loss last year to Jaime Pressly, which I can still make neither heads nor tails of, was a complete sham. Here's hoping voters will come to their senses this time around and hand her the statue. I worry though; for the same reason I think America Ferrera is a longshot for lead actress—"Ugly Betty's" loss of creative mojo—I think Williams could be passed over again. If I'm wrong, then I'd expect Chenoweth to slide into her place.

Series
"Curb Your Enthusiasm"
"Entourage"
"The Office"
"30 Rock"
"Two and a Half Men"

NBC should be happy with the outcome either way here, because I think this is between "The Office" and "30 Rock." I'm giving the edge to "30 Rock" because it's buzzier, has more nominations this year, and a better collection of episode submissions. Some of the episodes submitted for "The Office" were among the season's weakest. But then again, the show's fourth season has been polarizing. I thought it was the weakest yet, while others swear it was the best. If there are enough voters in the latter group, there could be an upset.

© 2008