The Great Confidence Game

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  • Posted By: Puka @ 09/22/2008 7:24:58 PM

    We will soon learn that the reason AIG didn't have the capital to pay its debts was because they were massively speculating in oil. As long as they were selling to raise capital oil was falling the minute AIG and the other financial institutions were rescued oil rose 25 dollars a barrell.

  • Posted By: Puka @ 09/22/2008 7:23:18 PM

    People will soon learn that AIG couldn't fund its debts because it had it invested in oil speculation. As long as these institutions were selling their oil contracts to raise capital the price of oil was falling. As soon as the government bailed them out the price of oil shoots up 25 dollars in one day.

  • Posted By: alosh @ 09/22/2008 6:45:30 PM

    How can we trust anything? We have Mccain and Bush telling us all is well when the world is crumbling. Time for a change.

  • Posted By: Angela @ 09/22/2008 6:29:49 PM

    I believe there is more behind the faltering economy than consumer confidence (that's an economic copout). The real problem is that JOBS ARE SCARCE. Absolutely no job security in these economic times and no one knows whether or not they will get another dollar. These days, have you ever tried to get another jobs with so many others wanting the same job you are seeking (college degrees don't matter in these times). If your going to gain consumer confidence---GIVE THEM EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, and don't give large corporations tax breaks when they take our American jobs overseas.

  • Posted By: Angela @ 09/22/2008 6:23:54 PM

    I

  • Posted By: RO in Reno @ 09/22/2008 9:45:31 AM

    The investors and financial managers have lost that trust and rightfully so.

    We have economic policies that exclude the middle and lower class from the process.
    We now see the economy and the health of the banks are dependant on keeping housing prices up.
    How do higher housing prices benefit anyone except the banks?

    Few efforts to keep people in their homes has had any effect, yet the banks who now have housing setting vacant seem to prefer what is conceivably a greater lose by putting people on the street rather than negotiating a loan that might be affordable.

    We see a demand for a bailout of $700 billion yet if you take the number of foreclosures times the lose the banks would incur in the auction price of a foreclosed home it amounts to only 15% of $700 billion, something very wrong in that number,

    Bad loans are only part of the problem we have lost over 600,000 jobs in this country so far this year, that by it self has to add substantially to the reasons for and the numbers of foreclosures;

    So we have a policy of shipping jobs out of the country, want to keep housing unaffordable expect the middle class to bail them out for their very short sighted greed and cold hearted policies and we are suppose to trust them?

    I think if this bailout happens, there will be a voter revolt, most of the comments I have seen are in opposition to any bailout, people are ready to bite the bullet instead, A bailout will not improve the lives of the greater number of Americans, in fact it will be detrimental in the lose of health care, education and infrastructure, it may put some of the wall street people back to work but it will not put even one of the millions of skilled labor people back to work.

    $700 billion will fund a lot of soup kitchens.

    • Posted By: Fisherman144 @ 09/22/2008 5:26:18 PM

      How about foreclosing on all of McCain's properties and all the other greedy, irresponsible executives and the Republicans who insisted on deregulation....what I mean is a law called imminent domain. That allows the take-over of property for the good of the people. Then we could sell all of their assets and fix this outrageous problem.

  • Posted By: TheVigil @ 09/22/2008 12:42:37 PM

    Samuelson: One of the last great moderate conservative commentators who actually uses logic and reason to support his arguments. Why can't he and Glenn Beck form a superhero commentator team and annihilate Bill O' Reilly, Lou Dobbs, and Michelle Malkin in a blast of utter necessity?

    In other news, I agree with both Samuelson for suggesting that trust is vital to the financial system, and the commentators who suggest the trust was rightfully lost. Wall Street got more focused on shooting dice with complex derivatives and wasting money on the executive class than they did serving the genuine needs of companies to offer tradable stock and secure initial investment. It's a pity we can't legislate a 10-to-1 leverage-to-equity ratio or a 10-to-1 debt-to-equity ratio and stop companies from playing dice with their companies. Leverage is basically the practice of borrowing more money than the company's net worth in order to maximize the chance of profit via larger operating capital. The problem is that if things start to go sour, the increasing requirements of that large debt usually lead to the rapid conflagaration of the company. It's way harder to pay back 10 creditors than one for the same amount of money. So it turns Wall Street into a house of cards, especially when it's done en masse. The peak of the bubble gets reached, then suddenly there's not enough money to start paying the massed creditors off in each and every company. Wham - they all fold like this.

    Unrestrained capitalism is nearly as problematic a philosophy as unrestrained communism, guys. Look up "x-inefficiency" in Wiki or an economics textbook. It's a highly flawed system. Some regulation is necessary.

    • Posted By: Fisherman144 @ 09/22/2008 5:21:22 PM

      A more simple cause is the Ponzi scheme that the Wall Street boys have played with OUR money. The house of cards came down. That was inevitable, but the cover up was excellent so we couldn't see it coming. Now we are going from a 'psychological recession' to a full blown depression. The United States is bankrupt. We don't have enough prison space to lock up all the white-collar leeches....including the CEO's and a number of our Congressional representatives, but we can throw them out of office. The Fox is still guarding the hen house. Now we're between a rock and a hard place....the way out is to let these institutions fail and be taken over by us, the taxpayer, who would be getting the shaft if the Government continues to play games with everything we own and will own for years to come.

  • Posted By: TravelinMike @ 09/22/2008 5:21:12 PM

    Confidence? For years it has been drummed into the public psyche that Government is comprised of nothing more than totally incompetent bureaucrats and we must put our trust in the Free Enterprise System and those Buisness Titans, the American Idols of capitalism. Now those Titans have shown us in vivid detail that they are more than capable of trumping Government's incompetance with and even more devastation one-two punch of shameless greed and off-the-chart corruption. In the absence of regulation, the most corrupt power brokers of them all seem to be chosen to define the most destructive and shortsighted of business models which is guaranteed to set a course for certain economic doom that even the most modest of the CEO lemmings are powerless to resist. So precisely where are we asked to place our "confidence"....with that incompetant, ineffective Government or a willfully corrupt, self-serving Marketplace?

  • Posted By: Fisherman144 @ 09/22/2008 5:05:15 PM

    The Republicans have been excellent at hiding and covering up the truth about the greed and power lust they've been pursuing for the last 8 years or more. Now we have a crisis. The only answer is for the taxpayers to voice their distrust of giving Paulson, a Republican and head of the treasury, a gift of $700 BILLION Dollars to do anything he wants to do. McCain has continually lied about his deregulation and oversight....now he's changing to Obama's position of regulation and controls over banks and Wall Street. McCain asks for trust. That's the height of egotistical rhetoric. Let's send our oposition and other positive ideas to our representatives and let them know that 'We have had enough and won't take it anymore!!'

  • Posted By: 4carol @ 09/22/2008 4:17:20 PM

    No one knew?????
    Why is it the American people for the most part do a pretty decent job of balancing their checkbooks, but the hot shots can't????? And then they expect, not want, huge bonuses when they are either dismissed or they quit!!!!!
    WHAT IS WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE??????????????? ONLY ONE WORD COMES TO MIND FOR ALL OF THIS..........GREED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! IT'S DISGUSTING!!!!!!!!!!
    TEA PARTY, ANYONE????????????????

  • Posted By: clikdawg @ 09/22/2008 4:16:37 PM

    So now, let me get this straight: We're gonna give 700 billion dollars to a bunch of guys who just managed to LOSE 700 billion dollars? And the US Gummint is gonna turn a profit (or at least break even) on all those Bad Debts that those guys lost the 700 billion dollars on to begin with? Huh. Man, this thing has Grand Theft written all over it ...

  • Posted By: C. MacLean @ 09/21/2008 12:43:00 PM

    "But turning the Fed into a massive lending agency ... was a dramatic shift from its familiar role of regulating interest rates and credit conditions."

    Except the Fed has done a poor job of regulating interest rates and credit conditions. (and not just the Fed, other institutions as well have not done their jobs).

    If the Fed didn't do its first job well, what leads us to believe it will handle the next job assignment, becoming a massive lending agency, any better?

    Do we really want to trade the devil we know for the devil we don't? After all, the Fed and the Treasury are part of our government, the same government that oversees medicaid, the aftermath of Katrina, and the Iraq war.

    If there must be government bailouts to prevent econmomic collapse, there also need to be some safeguards in place - absolute power still corrupts absolutely. If the private sector can demonstrate their ability to clean up their act (an iffy proposition, but still a possibility) will the Fed and the Treasury give the power back? What happens if the government does an even lousier job than the private sector?

    Be careful what you wish for.

    • Posted By: SDDan @ 09/22/2008 4:12:46 PM

      Actually the fed is private, owned by 12 regional banks. Guess who is behind some of those banks. JP Morgan and Lehman ring a bell?

  • Posted By: Sane in Utah @ 09/22/2008 3:45:16 PM

    The shining titans of Capitalism end up being crooks and idiots after all. Go figure. Unfortunately, because greed reigned supreme these past years, the taxpayer will end up footing this disastrous bill. God help us all.

  • Posted By: Omnius @ 09/22/2008 2:38:12 PM

    Confidence is nothing but a big "Con" game. The first 3 letters of confidence say it all and we taxpayers have now been conned by these Wall Street white collar criminals into having enough confidence to bail them out to the tune of $700 billion. I say let Wall Street crash and burn so they learn the lesson that their financial con scams are no longer tolerated here on Main Street. It's way past time to get rid of the psychology factor of these con men and to make Wall Street work on real economic fundamentals.

  • Posted By: gvillagran3 @ 09/22/2008 2:07:44 PM

    I see very little expert insight in the other problems that represent the enormous bailout we are about to give Wallstreet. For starters;

    1) There is currently trillions of Dollars of loans in Real Estate not included in any bailout, but not very far from going bad if the economy stumbles as expected for years.

    2) Credit Card loans going bad are about to sky rocket as the economic slow down increases. The problem in this area can also be in the hundreds of Billions of Dollars and can drag down the collateralization requirements of some of the largest banks in America.

    3) The down ward pressures to the U.S. Dollar will be enormous. As a result we can expect high inflation combined with a recession, or Stagflation for at least a few years.

    4) The loss of confidence in our Markets, combined with the loss of confidence in our Government institutions and it's capacity to regulate can , and in my opinion have created a new historic change. Increasingly the U.S. Dollar is no longer the prefered currency for International transactions and holdings. As a result of this shift we can no longer continue to have the luxury of financing our enormous deficits with a constant influx of foreign money. Today basically what we have is foreign capital flight , and the considerable increment of risk compensation in any foreigner investor's loans, that will make the service of our present debt considerably more expensive than we planed for just a few days ago.

    5) In absorving 1.5 Trillion Dollars in debt , Main street will return the "favor" to Wall Street by simply going into a prolonged recession that will in turn make the present bear market look like the good old days. As this event happens more, and more U.S. Corporations will scramble for Bankrupcy protection, or other forms of government bail-outs. Look for the Automotive industry to be the first one in line.

    I could go on, but we have a limit on this blog. So let me just finish by saying that even now I don't see the transparency in any politician, or "expert" in giving us the unbarnished truth.... We have not learned that trust comes from transparency , even now.

  • Posted By: sieg6529 @ 09/22/2008 6:39:09 AM

    Wow, this Republican government just did more to socialize our economy than all the Democrats of the last 50 years.

  • Posted By: BunchofChemies @ 09/21/2008 9:12:43 PM

    It is absolutely the height of Republican misrule to decide to bail out the professional financiers and bankers who should have known better than to invest in these assets, while blaming people who hardly know what the word amortization means for taking out loans they could not afford and making them pay every last cent. Utterly reprehensible. The Republicans were responsible for the deregulation that made all this possible. Anyone who fails to see the need to punish the Republicans for starting an illegal war and this financial crisis is a fool.

    Obama's plan makes more sense. Of course, it is not detailed yet. The guy is not running an entire executive branch, he's running a campaign. He doesn't have access to all the information that Bush has, or any of the power. However, his braod outline ought to serve as the basis for the response to this crisis. It is far superior to the dead on arrival Paulson-Bush plan.

  • Posted By: ylansky @ 09/21/2008 1:06:53 PM

    I just afraid that CDS's on US Treasury are going up in price. That means that people increasingly believe that US Gov won't be able to repay it's debt. If hedge funds realize that they can Long CDS on US Treasury and short Gov's bounds by doing this they can force US Gov into default like they did it to Lehman and AIG.
    Question is who is going to bail out US Gov ???

  • Posted By: Toni Kamau @ 09/21/2008 2:30:56 AM

    There remains a bad feeling bout this government "rescue". Obviously, the market wants to clean up the inflated and to a certain degree also dirty financial system. Now, the government doesn't allow this to happen, coz of the justified fear, that the whole system will collapse.
    The storm isn't over yet as long as the financial system hasn't shrunken to a healthy size and even more important-the financial system regains trust by getting rid of the gamblers and criminals, and replacement of self-interest by its real duty : service to the society.

  • Posted By: melbee1971 @ 09/20/2008 5:14:36 PM

    Smart, regulatory policies are an unfortunate necessity (and can boost confidence) when human beings have unlimited wants and organized GREED will always seek to be unbridled. History teaches this when you analyze any large market system with many competing interests.

    As a public high school teacher, the current state of our public institutions reflect our values as a society, from my point of view. I ask Newsweek readers to PLEASE consider the following comparison of our institutions: our pubic schools and our private financial "powerhouses" that are now being bailed out with our taxpayer dollars.

    We are bailing out these failing institutions with taxpayer dollars while the state of our public school system continues to decline. Think about this, voters PLEASE! Not just for the sake of your own personal interests, but for the sake of our country.

    Good teachers are being laid off and class sizes are growing. No child left behind is a law that requires improvements without funding to implement these improvements. Schools are listed as "failing schools" (terrible for morale) because of unrealistic goals/unfunded mandates funded by politicians seeking to score political points. What is often "left behind" in our public schools is often a stressed out skeleton staff that does not have the ability to properly educate our students.

    Meanwhile, these corporate lobbyists that effectively secured deregulation and what they consider "optimal" conditions for success (deregulation). And a few well-connected people have lined their pockets with enormous amounts of other peoples' money.

    John McCain has a record of being a major player and advocate of deregulation and has taken money TIME AFTER TIME from the deregulation lobbyists - the very same "fat cats" he's now criticizing! NOW McCain is calling for change, when his deregulation in part has created this mess?

    This sort of short-term gain at the expense of long-term growth way of thinking has infected our entire way of running our society.

    Unfortunately, young people (the MAJORITY) of our future do not have the money or the resources to hire corporate lobbyists. Their teachers and their schools have limited resources. And there are little organized efforts to reform and progress/ lead our public schools into the 21st century. In every other developed and developing country we compare our students' progress with, there are sustained efforts to improve, fund, and prioritize education.

    In America, we are starving our schools while bailing out reckless fat cats who've thrived on greed. Is this the American Way? Or have we lost our way?

    Let this difficult period be a lesson. We all want healthy money markets and retirements. We must see the connection between healthy public schools and a healthy economy that is investing in human capital. Hopefully (as we say in class) we will learn from all of this and use it to improve, grow, and succeed.

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