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The Echoes Of Crisis
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While this shift may signify a relative decrease in U.S. power, it provides a cushion for the global economic system, a system that most U.S. companies and consumers are enmeshed in. Global capital may not flow exactly where it is needed exactly when it is needed, but it changes the equation. There may not be enough capital on Wall Street to float ailing investment banks. There is more than enough capital globally to do that many times over. Sovereign wealth funds already helped Citibank through some of its trouble at the end of 2007; China's SWF just took a larger stake in Morgan Stanley; and they could very well step in again if needed.
Finally, there is the tricky question of Main Street. The more than 400 publicly-traded companies of the S&P 500 that have nothing to do with mortgages and don't make cars have been doing quite well. Earnings of financial companies were down more than 100 percent for the first six months of 2008; the rest saw their earnings up nearly 10 percent, with many individual companies like Google up substantially more. True, these companies function in a global marketplace that is expanding more quickly than Europe or the United States, especially China. They can squeeze more efficiency (fewer workers, more technology) out of their business. But they are also doing well because people and companies outside of Wall Street are simply going about their business.
On Main Street, cell-phone stores are selling iPhones; electronics stores are selling flat screens and game consoles; nail parlors are cutting nails; fast food is selling fast; and medical-equipment companies are making artificial joints, bandages and pacemakers. Ask the average person in Houston or Omaha what they think about Lehman Brothers or AIG, and most of them would probably say they've never heard of either. And for good reason: those companies don't impact their lives meaningfully.
Dark days on Wall Street for sure, but catastrophe for society, that is a stretch. As stock markets continue their wild gyrations, pension plans and retirees who need the cash now are pressured, yet stocks go up just as quickly as they go down. Others will continue to put money in their retirement plans and may find years from now that those investments performed spectacularly. Wall Street will consolidate, and some firms will thrive and profit having picked up solid franchises of imploding companies. And then some other crisis will occur, unexpected, and people will once again say that it's the worst they've ever seen, and life will go on.
Karabell is president of RiverTwice Research and senior adviser to Business for Social Responsibility.
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