Mr. More-Of-The-Same

In the absence of a clear agenda, experts are studying Aso's cabinet nominations for clues to his intentions. But this approach offers little cause for hope. New York University's Edward Lincoln notes that Aso and some of his appointees hold opposite views on key economic issues, suggesting ministers were chosen mostly for the constituencies they represent. Lincoln says he finds it remarkable how many appointees are, like the prime minister himself, second- or third-generation LDP members who represent powerful factions. Of 18 cabinet posts, four have gone to politicians with fathers or grandfathers who were prime ministers, and ten cabinet members are the children of former LDP parliamentarians.

Aso may be banking that these machine politicians can help him muster support in the upcoming election. But it's a risky strategy. His nominees are unlikely to promote reform and may cause international problems as well: for example, his new finance minister, Shoichi Nakagawa, is an ultraconservative defender of Japan's wartime past and one of the country's only top politicians to have suggested that Japan develop its own nuclear deterrent.

Aso may think his personal popularity will nonetheless give him an edge on the hustings. His reputation as a comics-reading aristocrat does seem oddly appealing to many Japanese, and a recent Kyodo poll put his personal approval rating at 54 percent, 30 points ahead of the DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa, who's known for muddled speeches and a penchant for intrigue. Even if Aso does manage to lift his party to victory, however, the DPJ will retain control of the upper house, leading to legislative gridlock—the very thing that helped undo Aso's predecessors, Fukuda and Shinzo Abe.

That could prove maddening for Aso, who's been bred to expect LDP dominance and control. "Imagine watching your granddad and your dad being able to push through whatever they want, and suddenly you're stuck with actually having to talk with Ichiro Ozawa," says Ken Worsley, editor of the Web site JapanEconomyNews.com. "I'd last about a week." Aso will probably hang on for longer than that. How much longer, however, remains far from certain.

With Akiko Kashiwagi in Tokyo

© 2008