I am sorry that I don't have a Phd in finance, or experience on Wall Street. But I am an attorney who closed home mortgage loans for 25 years, and I believe you have missed the whole point. If I may simplify everything, AIG was an insurance company. Their business is to assess risk, and charge a premium for it, which will cover the assumed liabilities under the insurance contract and give them a return in excess of the money that they have to pay out. The question is, why did they (and all the other players on Wall Street) so radically miss the true risk of the securities they were insuring? Well, certainly, they didn't miss on loans to IBM, Wal-Mart and Ford; it was the mortgage backed securities issued predominantly by Fannie and Freddie that was the downfall. Now why would this be? Because Fannie and Freddie were implicitly guaranteed by the US government, and they were being pushed by the poiiticians to do so in order to make homeownership availabile to people who had never been able to afford a home before. This political trend started in the 1970's with Jimmy Carter and gained momentum in the 90's and the new millenium. And, although there were some who recongnized the problem and sounded the alarm at various times (Warren Buffet, Greenspan, Bush, McCain, et al), none could get enough attention (or muster the sustained political will) to oppose the "homes for everyone" demagoguery. And most of the demogoguery was enunciated by Chris Dodd, Chuck Shumer, Barnie Frank and the other democrats on capital hill, who, not uncoincidentally, received massive campaign contributions from Fannie and Freddie, and also the Wall Street firms who they are now giving billions to to fix the problem.
The bottom line: just like the Great Depression, this was a government caused problem. Wall Street would have never gone to the excesses they did without the assurance they had from Wahsington and their paid for politicians.









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