What If Obama Loses?

(Part 2 of 3: Continued from my post above - Intelligence and Leadership: Posner)

The high-level jobs are filled generally by lateral entries from quite different jobs, rather than by civil servants. Some of these high-level jobs are technical; an example is the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve Board. Such jobs are relatively easy to fill with persons who can be predicted with reasonable confidence to do a good job.

But there is a tendency to exaggerate the versatility of the combined general-specific human capital that a lateral entrant brings to a high-level government job of a managerial or advisory rather than technical character. There are SEVERAL CHARACTERISTICS of such a job that actually MILITATE AGAINST THE PROSPECTS FOR THE SUCCESS OF AN EXTREMELY INTELLIGENT PERSON. First, these are ensemble jobs in the sense that many different skills or aptitudes are necessary to successful performance; if one of these, such as intelligence, is very highly developed, a person may neglect the others.

Second, it may not be possible to use step-by-step, logical reasoning to solve the problems laid at the feet of the occupant of a job like secretary of defense or secretary of state or national security adviser. Such questions as what to do in Vietnam or what to do in Iraq do not lend themselves to rigorous analysis because there is not enough information to analyze. Intelligence is not designed for coping with situations that are not complex, but rather are profoundly uncertain. Having great information-processing skills is not worth a lot if you have no reliable information.

Third, leaders or managers should be more intelligent than their followers or subordinates, but not too much more intelligent. IF THEY ARE TOO MUCH MORE INTELLIGENT, THEY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY ASSESSING THE CAPACITIES AND LIMITATIONS OF THEIR UNDERLINGS and they will be tempted to substitute their intelligence for their underlings knowledge. Analysis and knowledge are, to an extent, substitutes. You can multiply two numbers rapidly if you have good computational skills or if, though your computational skills are mediocre, you have memorized the multiplication table. Knowledge in government resides in civil servants, and they tend on average to be less intelligent (also of course less powerful) than brilliant laterals. So the latter are tempted to think that they can make decisions with minimal assistance from the civil servants.

The temptation is reinforced by a failure to distinguish between intuition and step-by-step reasoning. Cognitive psychologists explain that the human unconscious contains more information than we can access at a conscious level. As Herbert Simon (an economist and psychologist) explained, conscious attention is a severely limited faculty and must be

(Continued in my post below: Intelligence and Leadership: Posner)

(Part 3 of 3: Continued from my post above: Intelligence and Leadership: Posner)

carefully rationed. Through intuition, however, we can access the larger repository of unconscious information. Hence we speak of a person as having EXPERIENCE or GOOD JUDGMENT or COMMON SENSE, as distinguished from being brilliant in the sense of being quick or having a good (conscious) memory. So now imagine a confrontation between a BRILLIANT PERSON WHO HAS NO KNOWLEDGE about Vietnam or IRAQ, and a CAREER STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICER who has spent his whole career working on conditions in one of those countries, who KNOWS THE LANGUAGE, has LIVED THERE, and is STEEPED IN THE COUNTRYS HISTORY, CULTURE, AND POLITICS. Suppose he offers some advice to the brilliant senior official, and the latter asks him to explain and justify the advice. He may be unable to do so because he may be drawing on a repository of information below the conscious level. The BRILLIANT OFFICIAL may be IRRITATED at HIS INABILITY to EXTRACT much more than A CONCLUSION FROM THE EXPERT.

What is required at the TOP LEVELS of government is NOT BRILLIANCE, but MANAGERIAL SKILL, which is a different thing, AND INCLUDES KNOWING WHEN TO DEFER TO THE SUPERIOR KNOWLEDGE OF A MORE EXPERIENCED BUT LESS MENTALLY AGILE SUBORDINATE. Moreover, so specialized is management as a job that success in managing a business may not translate at all into success in managing a government agency. The firm-specific human capital that a person acquired in a career of management in a business firm may have no value for the management of a government agency, or for that matter a university, a private foundation, or an international organization. Indeed, an experienced manager of a firm may falter and have to be fired if a change in the firms environment requires a different type of management skill.

A striking example of the specialized character of leadership human capital is Larry Summers. A TRULY BRILLIANT PERSON AND SUCCESSFUL SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY, he FAILED as PRESIDENT OF HARVARD UNIVERSITY though he seemed to many people (myself included) to be an outstanding choice. I have the highest personal and professional regard for Summers and blame the failure of his presidency not on him but on the Harvard faculty of arts and sciences. But the fact is that he failed, because he was not able to port his very considerable suite of intellectual and managerial assets to the management of an organization critically different from the Treasury Department.

Source:
http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/archives/2007/06/intelligence_an_1.html

· Posted By: proud soldiers mom @ 09/29/2008 10:25:46 PM
Comment: Doesn't it bother african-americans to realize that Obama is only 6.25% african american and is ARAB-american? His father's birth ceritificate listed him as arab (not african american). ---- It's likehe is making a mockery out of our african-american citizens. Either that, or the realization that we are at war in the middle east and he knows he cou;dn't get elected it he was truthful.


Stop this nonsense! You have been posting this crap all over the place. The worst thing is it is a blatant lie. You say you are a soldier???s mom, how would you like someone run a smear campaign like this on your son? You do not have to like a candidate or vote for him but please give him the respect he is due, the same respect you reserve for McCain.

McCain is not the enemy!!! The uneducated voter is the enemy!!! The fraudulent "citizen" who feels he or she is fulfilling their "sense of duty" by showing up at the polls and voting for the "flavor of the month" is the enemy!!! The "adults" of this country who read at a level of 5th grade or LOWER are the enemy!!! Their reckless and irresponsible behavior sets an example for their children that says "have no understanding of ANYTHING..................but make sure your OPINION is heard.".............what cowardly advice...........I love so dearly the book of PROVERBS..........where it says "WISDOM CRIES OUT IN THE STREETS.........YET NO ONE LISTENS"..............keep it up "America"...........because once we've made it to the FIFTH GRADE.......it's all downhill from there................isn't it???

It's sad to see that people are looking at Obama's color when he is of both a white and black race. The mans views are far better than McCains but surely there are people who ratter see McCain win over a bi-racial male so it' go both ways. People should judge on what the candidate brings to the table for us the people. Sure experience is good but what dose it mean when not applied??? Common sense goes a long way also! It with be a new job for both candidates to be president. Look at Bush??? He had two terms and still nothing. His first term was experience and look at the USA now??? So don't be blinded by color people when it comes down to all od our lives not just black and white! That's why I am ready for change not because of race but what the person brings for the people. I ratter have a wise open minded president than a president that live with war on the mind!

For those who say blacks are voting race you are wrong. It goes much deeper than that. This is almost like a second civil rights movement but better, where blacks believe they are being recognized as being good enough to hold the highest office in the land. One has to bear in mind that this race has been depressed and dispossessed for centuries. They recognize that one among them is brilliant enough, competent enough and worthy enough to be president. They are not supporting Obama only because he is black, but because he happens to be outstanding. This to them is a historical monumental event and one in which they regard with pride. It has awakened in them a new sense of worth and a belief that they too can aspire to be great if they work hard enough. It is my opinion that should Obama win this will be the most powerful inspiration to blacks surpassing the freedom of slavery and civil rights. It will be a signal to them of a new era in which they have arrived!

Take a close look at the "supporters" of Obama who are pictured up above where we are reading here.......yes, go ahead and scroll up to the top..........take a close look at their faces..........these are the poster children for the average "American" voter............and if I was to put a caption underneath the picture it would say "maybe he will explain this stuff to us because I don't understand A THING he's sayin'..........."

Hey GoBamainColorado........

Did you know that the average person who votes in the United States has a reading level of 5th grade or LOWER............and that doesn't "scare the hell out of you?".........wow..........you're a brave guy........you seem like you have half a brain in your noggin'..............Let me ask you "smart guy"......since we're not voting "race" (as you say)........then what are we voting?...............and if the average reading level of the average U.S. voter is 5th grade level or lower.......then how does your brilliant "educated" vote stand up against the MAJORITY who either do not understand any of the concepts or have the minds of little children (or..."Romero".....sorry Romero I couldn't resist).............?????????????????

We were waiting for your disclaimer (for like 20 minutes) ...........do you...........like..........not own a dictionary??

All I can say is McCain is playing for God's team...............like Angel Food Cake!!!!!!!!!!

There is no doubt in anyones mine that this election is an historic event to say the lease. If Obama lossess, White America stands to loose the most. We as people of color, ( I am Hispanic), know what it is to struggle to survive. We are living in very bad economic times, and White America has the most to loose under the continuation of President Bush's governmental doctrins.. This election will show the world, China, India, Latin America, and all nations of color, that America still has a large sector of its population that is outright racist.
Obama, has impacable acadamic credentials, while McCain almost flunked from the Naval Academy. Some may say that McCain has more experience in Washton D. C. . Yes they are right on that point. Look at the mess our government is in today. After so many years in Washington D.C. he has publicly admitted that he does not know very much about economics. That is why he is part of the problem. How can he determine when he is getting good advice on how to solve our countries problem. He has been part of the congress that is to blame for most if not all of the current problems. To make matters worse, he appoints a person who knows even less than he does about how to resolve our national and internationl problems to be his vice-president. Do I want to trust a man with such poor judgement to be my president. H-ll no!!! His claim to fame is serving in the military and serving five years in prison in North Vietnam. I am a veteran from that war. Let me remind you, that war was very, very , very unpopular war in our country. Students loss their live protesting that war. There were protest all over the this country against that war. I am not a politician and have no interest of ever being one. Therefore, I am going to say this, Mr. McCain, serve in the military, because it was a job, a career, that his family had a history of getting into. A career just like some families are doctors, policemen, firemen etc. from generation to generation. If you notice most if not all the Veterans supporting Mr. McCain, are career military men. Men who make there career of fighting wars. What do you expect. I am not putting down the military. I am putting his service in to some perspectiveand not allowing it to be blown out of proportion. When the Vietnam Veteran came home, from the politicians war in Vietnam, we were not warmly received as the current veterans are today. I just hope that thirty years from now we could look back and determine whether it was worth sending our soldiers to that war. I respect and like Mr. McCain and have followed some what his political career, but I do not think he can lead during these days.

SO. They can suck it up! Politics are politics, and there are winners and there are losers.

Senator Hillary Clinton obtained MORE votes; however, Obama formed a committee to choose a VP.

One thing we know is the huge gap between NObama's well-rehearsed mojo and any substance.

The Clintons should now fight extra hard for Obama, for it is THEIR legacy that is now in danger. If they do not support the Democratic party's choice Obama now, Hillary will have no chance in the future. No Democrat has won without the Black vote.

A product of 'Infirmative Action' is more like it.

You guys need take a look around. Look at who is president now (a republican), and look at the mess that America is going through. When Bill Clinton was in office American was not in this crisis. To even think about putting another republican in office is ludacris.