The Slippery Art of Polling

LIKE EVERYBODY SAYS...JOURNALISM IN THE USA IS DEAD. ONLY FOX RESEMBLES SOMETHING OF A FAIR AND BALANCED NEWS MEDIA. CNN , CBS , NBC , ABC , CSPAN , YOUTUBE..YOU NAME IT , THEY 'RE ALL IN THE TANK WITH BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA AND THATS A REAL SHAME BECAUSE THE AVERAGE AMERICAN IS DENIED THE INFORMATION THEY RIGHTFULLY DESERVE TO MAKE A DECISION IN A DEMOCRATIC SOCIETY..SUPPOSEDLY. BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA WAS SELECTED BY THE DNC IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES , HE USED THE RACE CARD AND SEXISM TO DISCREDIT HILLARY AND HER SUPPORTERS AND THE MEDIA WAS NOWHERE TO BE FOUND....SHAME !!
THE ONLY WAY I CAN EXPLAIN THIS IS THAT THE LEFT-WING SOCIALIST MEDIA, THE SO CALLED "EDUCATED" ELITISTS , AND YUPPIES THINK BEING BLACK IS COOL AND ELECTING THE FIRST BLACK PRESIDENT IS SOMETHING COOL TO DO BUT THEY DON'T KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT WHO IS BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA AND THAT HIS SOCIALIST TAX AND SPEND ECONOMIC POLICIES WILL DEVASTATE THE US ECONOMY AND ALL AMERICANS....AND AMERICANS ARE STUPID AND UNPATRIOTIC TO EVEN THINK OF SUPPORTING OBAMA.....JOHN MCCAIN IS THE LOGICAL AND ONLY CHOICE FOR COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF. LOOK AT OBAMA'S RECORD AND YOU WILL QUICKLY REALIZE THIS GUY CANNOT BE PRESIDENT OF THE USA....THATS A GIVEN....A GUY WHO WORKS WITH BILL AYERS AND STARTED HIS POLITICAL CAMPAIGN IN HIS LIVING ROOM AND THE ONLY THING OBAMA SAYS IN HIS DEFENSE IS " WELL..I BELIEVED THAT BILL AYERS HAS REHABILITATED ".....THIS IS THE TYPICAL SPIN OBAMA ALWAYS USES EVEN WHEN DEALING WITH HIS 20 LONG YEAR RELATIONSHIP WITH THAT WHACK JOB REVEREND WRIGHT....AND THEY'RE STILL AMERICANS SUPPORTING OBAMA ?....TALK ABOUT THE TWILIGHT ZONE.....WHATS HAPPENING DOWN THERE IN THE STATES IS KIND OF SCARY !!

Pollsters are trying o disenfranchise American voters by lying about the polls. CBS news is in bed with the socialist policies of Obama....have the American worker work and give money to those who do not. Obama wants to take 65 cents of every dollar you take and use it on fed. programs. The state takes 25 cents. You get to keep 10 cents under Obama plan. Yeah - he won't take that from you Can you live on it - No

Just remember the last two elections, with the morning after featuring the left wing news programs trying to explain how and why they got it so wrong. After a while they start buying into their own BS. Its Groupthink.

The media should stop giving such exaggerated weight to polls. In fact, I'd really prefer for the publication of polls to be prohibited entirely for 1-2 months before elections; basically, they are harmful speech, like shouting "fire" in a crowded theater when there is no fire.

The media should stop giving such exaggerated weight to polls. In fact, I'd really prefer for the publication of polls to be prohibited entirely for 1-2 months before elections; basically, they are harmful speech, like shouting "fire" in a crowded theater when there is no fire.

Sounds a lot like the same logic that gave us high risk subprime mortgages repackaged as low risk investments.

There are lies, damn lies, and then there are opionion polls...

Thank you for an excellent description of the survey process. The devil is always in the details. One detail you didn't mention is that many organizations contract out the work to call centers that normally do customer service or sales since there is insufficient capacity in industry at a time when literally hundreds of surveys are being done each month...... especially at the state level. The result is that the surveyors are not always professionally trained market researchers. Often they only receive an hour or two of training. One result is that they often bias individual surveys by not strictly following methodology. Another problem at the implementation level is that many of these same surveyors and their supervisors are required to produce a predetermined number of completed surveys per hour. In a market place where the general public identifies all calls as hated telemarketing calls, many surveyors simply complete the surveys "for" the respondent in order to meet their quota.

Thank you for an excellent description of the survey process. The devil is always in the details. One detail you didn't mention is that many organizations contract out the work to call centers that normally do customer service or sales since there is insufficient capacity in industry at a time when literally hundreds of surveys are being done each month...... especially at the state level. The result is that the surveyors are not always professionally trained market researchers. Often they only receive an hour or two of training. One result is that they often bias individual surveys by not strictly following methodology. Another problem at the implementation level is that many of these same surveyors and their supervisors are required to produce a predetermined number of completed surveys per hour. In a market place where the general public identifies all calls as hated telemarketing calls, many surveyors simply complete the surveys "for" the respondent in order to meet their quota.

What people say and what they actually do when they close the curtain in the voing booth may be two different things. There is something magical that transpires when you actually punch or press or write what you really believe in as an American. Maybe I am not typical, but I am always a little intimidated by the responsiblity of making a responsible choice that effects millions of Americans. I consider it a serious responsibility and voting your conscience makes a difference when I am unsure of an issue. Voting for an actual person is different...I am a party girl all the way...it is the economy and always has been. I vote Republican! CAC

Whatever your opinion on this matter - the most important thing to remember is - make sure to get out and actually vote!

Excellent Article Ms Sharon Begley

I agree that polling is very difficult this year because of a New Generation with new characteristics that uses cell phones, does not answer unknown callers from unknown numbers, Millennials are almost never at home, Youngsters and Minorities easily escape from being polled.

It seems that people are not giving their race correctly to the caller.

Also the weighting factors are crazy, because the turn out of the youngsters is going to be higher. Also true for minorities : Blacks, Latinos, Asians, Native Americans, Mixed Races and others.

November 4 is a very tough statistic experiment. that may bring many surprises for one or the other candidate.

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I do not have the answers of who is going to win, but I am working hard to find out the Truth.


I have a Blog on Young Voters, Race and Demographics :

http://milenials.blogspot.com/

Right Now and after November 5, I will work collecting data on Racial Votes, Ethnic Material of Voters, Demographies and so on.


Vicente Duque

Good points. I'd just like to add that internet polls, which were widely quoted after the first debate, are also subject to a "skewing" in favor of those who have access to a computer, or are more frequent users of the internet.

And to gretnajo: I knew you were out there - so I always say McCain even though I'm voting for Obama. You, sir, have just been cancelled! (out)

Insightful...