A New Latino Mix

Puerto Ricans are the most coveted emerging group in the state. Second only to Cuban-Americans in number, they're U.S. citizens and thus eligible to register to vote as soon as they set foot on the mainland. And they're signing up in large numbers: they top the list of new voters registered by Democracia U.S.A., a prominent civic-engagement organization working in Florida. Puerto Ricans have clustered mostly in Orlando and nearby Kissimmee, drawn to tourism and service-sector jobs. Since many arrive directly from the island, they lack the deep Democratic tradition of their brethren in New York. "The majority of Puerto Ricans [in Florida] are by and large Democrats, but they're not as brand-loyal because island politics are so different," says Democratic State Rep. Darren Soto, who is of part Puerto Rican descent. (Back home, the main political groupings, the Popular Democratic Party and the New Progressive Party, differentiate themselves primarily on the issue of the island's status—whether it should remain a commonwealth or seek to become a state.) That has made Puerto Ricans more open to entreaties by the parties.

Puerto Ricans are a central component of the Florida GOP's long-term strategy. Senator Martinez courted them energetically as mayor of Orange County (home to Orlando) in the late 1990s. And Jeb Bush, who speaks Spanish and whose wife is Mexican, campaigned vigorously in the area during his successful gubernatorial runs in 1998 and 2002—both years in which he won the Puerto Rican vote, according to Lew Oliver, the Orange County Republican chair. Moreover, the party has been aggressive in recruiting and fielding Puerto Rican candidates for local office. When John Quiñones ran for state representative in 2002, in a district that covers parts of Orlando and Kissimmee, the GOP mustered critical support—dispatching Bush to walk neighborhoods with him and helping with fundraising and organizational resources. Quiñones won and became the first Puerto Rican Republican in the state House (in 2007, he won his current seat on the Osceola County commission). He in turn helped drive up Hispanic support for George W. Bush in 2004, when the president won an impressive 44 percent of the Puerto Rican vote statewide, according to the Metropolitan Center at Florida International University.

This election cycle, the strategy appears similar. The GOP has eight Latino candidates (most of them Puerto Rican) running in local races, ranging from state attorney to two seats on a soil and water conservation board. Many of them touted their candidacies at the McCain event in Orlando two weeks ago. By comparison, two Hispanic Democrats are competing in local contests. The Republicans are highlighting that disparity in robo-calls and local ads proclaiming, "El Partido Republicano Tiene Un Rostro Hispano" ("The Republican Party Has A Hispanic Face"). "The Republican effort to elect, promote, defend and support Hispanic candidates in Orange County is, in my opinion, the best in the entire nation," says Oliver. The Democrats "have done, in my view, a miserable job." Soto, the state representative, who's running for re-election, responds that many of the GOP candidates are "props" and "not running a serious campaign." He adds, "This election is about action, not catchy slogans."

Democrats point to some promising trends in Central Florida this time around. The party has been outperforming Republicans in voter registration in the area. And Latinos suffering from the economic crisis are in an anti-establishment mood. Soto says his polling in his district—which is about 50 percent Hispanic—shows Obama leading McCain by more than 20 points. "The biggest potential shift [in voting behavior] is still within the Puerto Rican community in Central Florida," says Al Cardenas, former chair of the state GOP. "I would say that's a work in progress at this point. But McCain starts out with significantly less percentage than Bush did in 2000 and 2004."

Add to that the fact that Obama is devoting significantly more resources to his Latino outreach in Florida than his Democratic predecessors. The effort was on display two weeks ago at an Obama campaign office in Kissimmee that buzzed with activity. A group of canvassers stopped by, bearing stacks of completed voter registration forms. A field director lined up volunteers for an upcoming neighborhood walk. And a group of phone-bank volunteers dialed up voters to pitch their candidate. "Are you supporting Barack Obama?," Wilfredo Román asked a female respondent in Spanish. She replied that she was undecided, prompting Román to launch into a spiel about Obama's policy stances. "We need to have change," he told the woman, "and it's up to us to put in the person who can bring it about."

Like their Republican opponents, Democrats are trying to re-create the political fervor that Puerto Ricans display on the island—a zeal that tends to dissipate when they arrive on the mainland. Back home, political events are festive and participatory, featuring food, music, dance and the famous caravanas—long, jubilant parades that snake through city streets. "That's what's so successful in Puerto Rico—everybody with energy and passion," says Betsy Franceschini, an Orlando businesswoman and member of one of Obama's Hispanic leadership councils. "They can participate. They're part of the process." If Florida's Puerto Ricans—and the state's emerging Latino communities in general—get anywhere near as engaged by Nov. 4, they could push either of the candidates over the top in a close contest.

© 2008