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Europe Defies the Skeptics
8/1/2009 12:00:00 AMjust six months ago, the media were rife with predictions about the collapse of the European Union and its currency in the wake of the economic crisis. Credit agencies issued downgrades or downgrade warnings for countries like Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Greece. Even more serious debt crises were expected in Central and Eastern Europe. With the euro dropping against the dollar by 5 percent per month, some expected governments to abandon it. Others warned in dire tones of a looming European trade war. And many expected that the economic turmoil would kill hopes of finally enacting the Treaty of Lisbon (a.k.a. the EU Constitution), or at least sapping the will of European citizens to cooperate on common policies such as defense, energy, and enlargement. One conservative American publication called it "the worst crisis of Europe's 50-year history"; a European establishment magazine warned of Europe's "breakup."
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The Capitalist Manifesto: Greed Is Good
6/13/2009 12:00:00 AMA specter is haunting the world—the return of capitalism. Over the past six months, politicians, businessmen and pundits have been convinced that we are in the midst of a crisis of capitalism that will require a massive transformation and years of pain to fix. Nothing will ever be the same again. "Another ideological god has failed," the dean of financial commentators, Martin Wolf, wrote in the Financial Times. Companies will "fundamentally reset" the way they work, said the CEO of General Electric, Jeffrey Immelt. "Capitalism will be different," said Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.
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BUSINESS
Calming the Bear
3/7/2009 12:00:00 AMI recently laid out in NEWSWEEK the bearish argument for why we should be very gloomy about the global economy, bearish about stock markets and deeply depressed about the world in general. I told readers it was my belief that there was a 50 percent chance that the world was facing a long cycle of recession, depression and wealth destruction. I maintained that the bears believe that the best-case economic scenario is Japan's agony since the 1990s, and the worst is a replay of the 1930s.
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GLOBAL INVESTOR
A Generation Of Destruction
2/28/2009 12:00:00 AMI don't believe that an even more dramatic economic or stock-market apocalypse is nigh, but many, many wise people do, and I must admit I am more worried now than I was a few weeks ago. I have attended two large conferences of global investors in the last few weeks, and it was clear that at both more than half of the participants believed that the Obama administration has stumbled badly, that its programs are too little and too late and that the president's halo is disappearing.
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WORLD AFFAIRS
Always a Bridesmaid
1/24/2009 12:00:00 AMEver since its launch back in 1999, admirers have pushed the notion of the euro as a rival to the dollar: in time, Europe's single currency would challenge the greenback's supremacy as a global reserve currency. And their confidence looked well placed as the euro weathered the recent economic battering. Speculation shook lesser currencies: the euro stood firm. Approaching its tenth birthday at the start of the year, the euro reached trade-weighted highs on the market.
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GLOBAL INVESTOR
The Last Model Standing Is France
1/10/2009 12:00:00 AMThe global recession takes its toll not only on those who lose their jobs, their houses or a chunk of their retirement savings. The crunch of the century is also sweeping aside many established ideas of how societies should run their economies. This impact will still be felt when the recession has long given way to a new upswing.
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