CAMPAIGN 2008

Pulling Away

Obama opens a double-digit lead in new NEWSWEEK poll

US Democratic presidential candidate Illinois Senator Barack Obama greets campaign volounteers while paying a surprise visit to a Obama campaign Ohio volounteer's training seminar in Colombus, Ohio, October 10, 2008.
Emmanuel Dunand / AFP-Getty Images
Obama on the campaign trail in Columbus, Ohio.
 

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The global financial meltdown has caused a dramatic shift in the 2008 presidential race, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. With four weeks left in the presidential campaign, Barack Obama now leads John McCain by double digits, 52 percent to 41 percent among registered voters—a marked shift from the last NEWSWEEK poll, conducted one month ago, when the two candidates were tied at 46 percent.

Underlying Obama's surge in support: An historic boiling over of dissatisfaction with the status quo. An astounding 86 percent of voters now say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States, while a mere 10 percent say they are satisfied. That's the highest wrong track/right track ratio ever recorded in the NEWSWEEK poll.

For context on just how toxic these numbers could be for the Republic party, consider that in October, 2006, weeks before the Democrats swept control of both houses of Congress, only 61 percent of voters expressed dissatisfaction. Twenty-five percent of voters say they approve of the job President Bush is doing in the White House, a record low for any president in the NEWSWEEK poll and close to the historic low-approval rating of 22 percent the Gallup poll recorded for President Truman, in 1952. Voters are crying out for change and, for now, believe that the Democratic presidential candidate has a greater likelihood of delivering it. Asked which ticket they thought was most likely to bring about change if elected, voters said Obama-Biden over McCain-Palin 52 percent to 37 percent. A month ago, Obama-Biden led by only five points, 47 percent to 42 percent.

Obama appears to have broadened his coalition of support and made inroads with groups that have not reliably embraced him over the course of the long presidential campaign. He now leads McCain among both men (54 percent to 40 percent) and women (50 percent to 41 percent). He now wins every age group of voters—including those over 65 years of age, who back him over McCain 49 to 43 percent. Supporters of Hillary Clinton, as many as a fifth of whom had at one point told pollsters they'd support McCain over Obama, now back the Democratic nominee 88 percent to 7 percent.

One topic, the economy, is clearly driving Obama's spike. Asked which issue was most important in determining their vote, 48 percent of those surveyed said the economy. (The next highest was taxes and government and spending, which 10 percent of voters identified as their number one issue; only 8 percent named the Iraq war as their most important issue.) Asked which candidate would better handle a variety of issues, voters chose Obama over McCain in every single category with the exception of national security and terrorism; McCain still leads on that front 50 percent to 40 percent. Obama now leads McCain on the economy and jobs (54 percent to 35 percent); on the Iraq war (47 percent to 46 percent); on energy policy and gas prices (53 percent to 36 percent); on health care (56 percent to 30 percent); on taxes and government spending (50 percent to 39 percent); on the financial problems of Wall Street and the mortgage crisis (50 percent to 34 percent); and on issues like abortion, guns and same-sex marriage (46 percent to 39 percent).

Still, the poll suggests that despite his lead and the extremely favorable conditions for a Democratic candidate, Obama has not yet established himself as the firm choice of swing voters. In fact, McCain, who has banked on a large and deep reservoir of goodwill from middle-of-the-road voters, still leads Obama among independents, albeit by only two points (45 percent to 43 percent). That's actually a slightly better showing for McCain than in the September NEWSWEEK poll, when Obama led McCain 44 percent to 43 percent among voters who described themselves as Independent. Party identification, it should be noted, can change significantly month to month, and voters may be particularly inclined to self-identify as Democrats in a year when Democrats are favored over Republicans. Among white Catholics, a group that has voted with the winner of every American presidential contest since 1960, Obama leads McCain by only one point (48 percent to 47 percent).

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Member Comments

  • Posted By: murillorobert @ 11/01/2008 6:48:11 PM

    It is sad how the news media distorts everything! I have always said that citizens with excellent qualifications shy away from running for the presidential office of the USA because of that distortion and violation of their privacy; so we are stuck with people who are not fully qualified, regardless of the party they represent, and do not have the experience to lead the country in the right direction. As it is, I don???t believe in any politician as they say one thing to get elected and do the opposite once they are in the White House; however, let???s not forget the saying: ???The lesser of two evils???!

    If we remember history of previous administrations in the USA, every time the Republicans are in the White House the economy goes into the red and it is sad to see that most people do not see that, they don???t recall previous Republican administrations and they don???t care, I believe, and vote for the party they belong to, or are plain ignorant. I recall when Regan and Bush Senior were in the White House for 12 years in a row, our economy was in bad shape and yet people kept voting Republican so in a nut shell the people get what they ask for. On the other hand, when the Democrats are in the White House everything tend to go back to normal and our economy recuperates but people do not see that and they go back to the Republican administration. As it is, the Republicans, historically, favor the military build up and also the big corporations neglecting the needs of the working class; so, I would say that we are always better under the Democrat administration than Republican. Probably people, specially the seniors, don???t remember that Ronald Regan took so much money from the Social Security that if the government would pay back what they took the Federal Government would go into bankruptcy but there again all they have to do is raise taxes in order to pay debts which they have incurred with people???s money ... In other words, they steal from the people and never pay back!

    I honestly believe that it is time for the government to clean their on back yard and stop giving money away to countries all over the world instead of looking up after our own people; as it is, our seniors don???t even have money to eat and get the medical care they deserve.

    There is also the subject of ???Fighting Foreign Wars??? for fanaticism as we did in Viet Nam, Korea, Iraq, and many other wars which all they have accomplished is death, destruction, and drive our economy into disaster such is the present Bush administration. So, what is the lesson which our politicians never learn? ... Our people first and then combat famine instead of governments which do not meet the democratic ideals and never will. Let???s not forget the sayings: ???Live and let live???, ???To each its own???, and ???The road to peace is the respect for the rights of others???.

  • Posted By: Nowforthetruth @ 10/24/2008 1:27:04 AM

    Spread the wealth how.? Look at his past. Obama in this video, addressing his work with ACORN litigation against the banks and relating to the Community Reinvestment Act and the failure of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, as they relate to the current real estate and financial crisis, states that, and I quote:

    "Subprime lending started out as a good idea, helping Americans buy homes who previously could not afford to. Financial institutions created new financial instruments that could securitize these loans, slice them into finer and finer risk categories, and spread them out among investors and around the country, as well as around the world. In theory, this should have allowed mortgage lending to be less risky, and more diversified."

    "The original idea was a good one, which was, lets see if we can distribute risk more broadly, and make it easier to provide loans to people who otherwise might not be able to get one."

    Listen for yourself. You cannot dispute the mans on words recorded live:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lr1M1T2Y314&feature=related


    Obama in this second video is campaigning at a convention of Acorn and I believe two other ???Community Activist's organizations. Ask if he will be their ally if he becomes President, Obama says, quote:

    "Yes, but let me say that before I even get inaugurated, during the transition we are going to be calling all of you in to help us shape the agenda."

    See and hear it for yourself. Obama promised that Acorn and other groups like it will setting his agenda if elected:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vJcVgJhNaU
    Below is a link to C-SPAN video clips of the Congressional hearings at roughly the time McCains attempt at S.190. to fix Fannie and Freddie. See for yourself who said what.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MGT_cSi7Rs
    See also
    http://www.newsweek.com/id/164732 from this web site. (oops!) stating that Freddie Mac was spending tax payer money to target Republicans in 2005 who were trying to regulate Fannie and Freddies fraud. Democrats were not targeted, as the were all in the tank with Fannie and Freddie to kill the regulations. Hear that, the article admits that Republicans were trying to regulate Freddie and Fannie, and Democrats were trying to stop it from happening as a means to facilitate the Community Reinvestment Act.

    See also: http://www.newsweek.com/id/164972
    Stating that Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act wasn't what caused the meltdown, and noting that "economists on both sides of the political spectrum have suggested that the act has probably made the crisis less severe than it might otherwise have been."

  • Posted By: ThePrairiePrankster @ 10/22/2008 2:24:03 PM

    Well, there's nothing very mavericky going on here. Please move one, nothing to see....just more MSM elitist propa-mc-ganda.

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