Ok, You Two, What Would You Do to Solve This Mess?
Obama and McCain have taken different tacks to handling the meltdown. It's not by accident. How their economic gurus shape their views.
Barack Obama was in "governing mode," says one of his aides. In a small room next to A basketball arena at the University of Miami, Fla., the Democratic nominee had convened an emergency session of his new economic brain trust. It was a remarkable gathering for a candidate who, during the primaries, had relied largely on an obscure, baby-faced University of Chicago economist named Austan Goolsbee. With Obama in the room were Bob Rubin and Larry Summers, both Clinton-era Treasury secretaries credited with lifting global financial markets out of the "Asian contagion" of 1997; Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve; Laura Tyson, Clinton's Council of Economic Advisers chair; Gene Sperling, Clinton's national economic adviser; and Dan Tarullo, also a key Clinton go-to man on trade and G8 issues.
Piped in on a conference phone were legendary investor Warren Buffett, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joe Stiglitz and Obama's would-be veep, Joe Biden. The topic at hand: what to make of Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's $700 billion rescue plan, which was to be announced later that day (Sept. 19). "There's a comfort level in having someone able to say, 'This is a little like what we faced 10 years ago'," says the aide, who would divulge details about the session only on condition of anonymity. "But Obama was running the show. Twice he cut some people off when they started to talk about what message he should deliver [to the public]. He said, 'Hold it, we'll do that later. You guys are here to help me figure out what we should be doing' " to solve the crisis.
In a phone call that day, Paulson had pleaded for time to sell his plan. Obama obliged by saying only that he supported giving Treasury and the Fed broad authority. Even though, behind closed doors, he was going into detail about his own possible solutions—mulling the virtues of the Depression-era Home Owners Loan Corporation and the response to the S&L crisis of the '80s—Obama supplied few specifics on his thinking. Nor has he revealed much more three weeks later, other than to talk about "protecting the taxpayer." While no one at the meeting would confirm they had advised the candidate to keep to generalities, Obama's approach did conform to the old Rubin-Summers philosophy from the '90s: loose talk by politicians just makes things worse, aggravating markets and upsetting negotiations. "The way McCain has made a fool of himself shows why," says another aide, who asked not to be named discussing campaign strategy. What the adviser didn't say is that this approach also gives Obama political cover: it allows him to avoid being too closely linked to a GOP-led bail-out while not appearing to undermine it.
John McCain's camp, of course, vehemently disputes this description of his response to the financial crisis. But there's no denying that the Republican candidate's reaction has been very different from Obama's. The day of the Paulson bailout plan, McCain avoided endorsing it, while blasting his Democratic rival for his ties to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. A few days later, McCain reversed course; he announced he was suspending his campaign to fly back to Washington to help pass the rescue bill, and he called for a postponement of the first presidential debate. Just as abruptly, McCain resumed campaigning—and showed up at the debate. At the second debate, on Oct. 7, McCain went beyond what Paulson, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and Obama were saying, asserting that as president he would immediately begin spending $300 billion to directly buy up people's bad mortgages. "It's a dramatic step in terms of breadth and aggressiveness," says his chief economic adviser, Douglas Holtz-Eakin.
With the presidential election less than a month away, uncertainty about America's future leadership has likely contributed to the market turmoil. It hasn't helped that no one can know for sure how either McCain or Obama would respond if elected. Despite his efforts at an activist approach, McCain has continued to sink in the polls. Obama, on the other hand, seems to be following more the approach of Franklin Roosevelt in the campaign of 1932. The Democrat remained mostly silent on Herbert Hoover's response to the economic crisis until he took office and launched the New Deal. The latest survey numbers suggest Obama's approach is working better than McCain's: in the new NEWSWEEK Poll he has a nearly 20-point advantage as the candidate better able to handle the economy (54 to 35 percent).
While both men have now backed major government intervention, Obama and McCain are getting different kinds of economic advice. Since the crisis began, Obama has gotten close to the Clinton "A-team" that helped to reassure markets in the '90s—Summers, Rubin and Tyson now routinely travel with him—whereas McCain continues to take the looser approach he's used as senator. McCain conducts occasional phone conferences with anywhere from seven to 30 business people and economists who review his campaign material; otherwise, the senator funnels their advice through Holtz-Eakin, a former staff member of Bush's Council of Economic Advisers and later director of the Congressional Budget Office. "I'm the chief bureaucrat," says Holtz-Eakin. "We've got lots of people out there. He likes to just listen to the various points of view … He really does operate in a style reminiscent of his time as chairman of the commerce committee." Many of McCain's advisers are Fortune 500 CEOs like Meg Whitman of eBay—he named her at the second debate as a possible Treasury secretary—rather than denizens of Wall Street or Washington (though he does speak with John Thain of Merrill Lynch regularly). McCain's chief financial-market expert, former Treasury undersecretary John Taylor, is regarded in the economic community as a brilliant thinker and analyst but a less-than-effective administrator. (The McCain campaign declined to comment.) Jack Kemp, chiefly known as a passionate advocate of tax cuts, also travels with McCain, says Holtz-Eakin.
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Member Comments
Posted By: Oplis @ 11/02/2008 12:00:14 PM
Comment: If Dems do, ...McCain will lose!
There are more Dems registered than Republicans this time, and if the undecided Democrats vote along party lines, Obama will win. This is why it is so important to get out the vote on the Dem side, we have to get this republican policy out , and get a different policy in place. Whether you believe Obama will be as affective as he says or not, McCain , will not be affective in change policy at all, he will be a Bush clone,....no?....he wants to stay in Iraq, " stay the course",..he wants to keep tax breaks for Corp.s in place including oil companies, plus add additional cuts for the oil industry, he wants to keep the tax rates for wealthy Americans, at present rate, he has no health plan, no education plan, and no solution to the economic crisis. Obama , is just the opposite, he knows that if you broaden your tax base with new jobs , in the form of green jobs, and high tech jobs, because of new training, and put the wealthy back in the tax rate they had under Clinton, and bring the troops home , saving 150 billion per year, all of this combined will improve the economy in the long run, and in the short run, a tax break for the middle class, and the troops out of Iraq.
Posted By: Nowforthetruth @ 10/27/2008 8:41:19 AM
Comment: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iivL4c_3pck
2001 Chicago Public Citizen Radio Interview criticizing the Warren Court as not radical enough for not pursuing redistribution of wealth.
Says that community organizing is for the purpose of assembling the political power to force redistribution of wealth.
Posted By: Nowforthetruth @ 10/26/2008 9:36:14 PM
Comment: The Kennedy tax cut.
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Taxes/bg1765.cfm
About half way through the article.
"President Kennedy proposed massive tax-rate reductions, which were passed by Congress and became law after he was assassinated. The 1964 tax cut reduced the top marginal personal income tax rate from 91 percent to 70 percent by 1965. The cut reduced lower-bracket rates as well. In the four years prior to the 1965 tax-rate cuts, federal government income tax revenue--adjusted for inflation--increased at an average annual rate of 2.1 percent, while total government income tax revenue (federal plus state and local) increased by 2.6 percent per year . In the four years following the tax cut, federal government income tax revenue increased by 8.6 percent annually and total government income tax revenue increased by 9.0 percent annually. Government income tax revenue not only increased in the years following the tax cut, it increased at a much faster rate.
The Kennedy tax cut set the example that President Ronald Reagan would follow some 17 years later. By increasing incentives to work, produce, and invest, real GDP growth increased in the years following the tax cuts: More people worked, and the tax base expanded. Additionally, the expenditure side of the budget benefited as well because the unemployment rate was significantly reduced.
Using the Congressional Budget Office's revenue forecasts (made with the full knowledge of the future tax cuts), revenues came in much higher than had been anticipated, even after the "cost""of the tax cut had been taken into account. Additionally, in 1965--one year following the tax cut--personal income tax revenue data exceeded expectations by the greatest amounts in the highest income classes.
Testifying before Congress in 1977, Walter Heller, President Kenned''s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, summarized:
What happened to the tax cut in 1965 is difficult to pin down, but insofar as we are able to isolate it, it did seem to have a tremendously stimulative effect, a multiplied effect on the economy. It was the major factor that led to our running a $3 billion surplus by the middle of 1965 before escalation in Vietnam struck us. It was a $12 billion tax cut, which would be about $33 or $34 billion in today's terms, and within one year the revenues into the Federal Treasury were already above what they had been before the tax cut.
Did the tax cut pay for itself in increased revenues? I think the evidence is very strong that it did."