CAMPAIGN 2008

Debunking the Bradley Effect

A polling analyst explains why he doesn't think Barack Obama's race is skewing the public-opinion surveys one way or the other.

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  • Posted By: Nowforsomemoretruth @ 11/03/2008 11:01:56 PM

    The problem with Obama is a simple one. One association does not a radical make. But in Obama's case, the list of left-wing radical mentors and associates is seemingly endless, (Davis, Ayers, Wright, Khalidi , etc., etc.) with a new revelation practically every day. With that trend, a picture begins to emerge, and that picture is that Obama is as steeped, not in just left-wing political thought, but in radical left-wing economic and race ideology, to the same extent that Pat Robertson was steeped in the ideology of the radical Religious Right. I would not have voted for Pat Robertson for dog catcher, and for similar reasons, I will not vote for Obama.

  • Posted By: Krohn @ 11/02/2008 11:17:29 PM

    The Wall Street crisis was planned the night of Obama's meeting at Bill Ayres home to put Obama in The White House. Together they put a beautiful plan into place.

    This Strategy was first elucidated in the 1966 issue of 'The Nation' Magazine by a pair of radical Socialist Columbia University professors, Richard Andrew Cloward and Frances Fox Piven.

    David Horowitz summarizes it as:

    "The strategy of forcing political change through an orchestrated crisis. The "Cloward-Piven Strategy" seeks to hasten the fall of Capitalism by overloading the Government bureaucracy with a flood of impossible demands, thus pushing society into crisis and economic collapse.
    unquote

    Obama begin with ACORN by funneling millions into their organization. He then trained ACORN to stage protests in banks to force them to issue risky loans or they would be threatened to face racial charges. ACORN was trained to intimidate financial institutions into giving ???Ninja??? loans to people with NO assets, NO job and NO income, who couldn???t afford these loans.

    That caused the housing bubble two years ago it was by ACORN's actions they were able to destroy our credit system.

    As this played out, D-Barney Frank and D-Chris Dodd were able to cover up the millions of improvident loans to these bad risky house buyers. And Barney Frank and his chums successfully were able to block all of President Bush's attempts to put a rein on this problem.

    So Fannie & Freddie was forced to purchase all these failed subprime mortgages.

    Then both Frank and Dodd denied that there were any problems, and refused the Bush Admin. requests to set up a regulatory agency to watch over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and they were still pushing for these agencies to go even further in promoting sub-prime mortgage loans almost up to the 'minute they failed'.

    Democrats then blamed Bush saying it happened on his watch knowing it would hurt the Republican Party in the election setting it up that Barack Obama could use this to his advantage.

    Karl Marx once compared a Revolutionary struggle with the work of the mole, who sometimes burrows so far beneath the ground that he leaves no trace of his movement on the surface.

    Barack Obama is that Marxist mole !

  • Posted By: Nowforsomemoretruth @ 11/02/2008 4:03:45 PM

    Kelo v. City of New London, 545 U.S. 469 (2005),
    What does redistributive mean. Well, remember that it was the liberal Left-Wing Justices of the U.S. Supreme Court that brought us this little jewel, holding that the government could take your real property, like your home, not for public use like a road or school, but to give to another private individual, such as a political contributor or other party hack or interest group.
    Kelo v. City of New London, 545 U.S. 469 (2005), was a case decided by the Supreme Court of the United States involving the use of eminent domain to transfer land from one private owner to another to further economic development. The case arose from the condemnation by New London, Connecticut, of privately owned real property so that it could be used as part of a comprehensive redevelopment plan. The Court held in a 5-4 decision that the general benefits a community enjoyed from economic growth qualified such redevelopment plans as a permissible "public use" under the Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment. Justice John Paul Stevens wrote the majority opinion; he was joined by Justices Anthony Kennedy, David Souter, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer
    The decision was widely criticized by American politicians and the general public. Many members of the general public viewed the outcome as a gross violation of property rights and as a misinterpretation of the Fifth Amendment, the consequence of which would be to benefit large corporations at the expense of individual homeowners and local communities. Some in the legal profession construe the public's outrage as being directed not at the interpretation of legal principles involved in the case, but at the broad moral principles of the general outcome.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelo_v._City_of_New_London

  • Posted By: Nowforsomemoretruth @ 11/01/2008 10:53:33 PM

    The problem with Obama is a simple one. One association does not a radical make. But in Obama's case, the list of left-wing radical mentors and associates is seemingly endless, (Davis, Ayers, Wright, Khalidi , etc., etc.) with a new revelation practically every day. With that, a picture begins to emerge, and that picture is that Obama is as steeped, not in just left-wing political thought, but in radical left-wing econimic and race ideology, to the same extent that Pat Robertson was steeped in the ideology of the radical Religious Right. I would not have voted for Pat Robertson for dog catcher, and for similar reasons, I will not vote for Obama.

  • Posted By: wendydk @ 11/01/2008 7:41:43 PM

    What, Concerned Canuck, no racist jokes from North of the Border put forth as Bill Cosbys POV??

  • Posted By: wendydk @ 11/01/2008 7:40:26 PM

    I see it much more likely as a REVERSE BRADLEY EFFECT. Macho redneck fellas who will secretly vote for Obama but never admit it to their hee-hawing tobacco chewing drinking buddies for fear that they'll never hear the end of it.

  • Posted By: wendydk @ 11/01/2008 7:39:10 PM

    What is most troubling in todays political climate is the promotion of hatred as a philosophy. The emergence of an ultraconservative dogma relies increasingly on the encouragement of mass hostility aimed at one group in particular - Americans with progressive political views. Liberals are spoken of with the kind of dripping contempt and virulent hostility that used to be associated with racism and sectarian religious strife. Liberals are viewed not fellow Americans citizens concerned with the future of their country, but as ideological enemies that need to be destroyed - and eaten if possible. This view is fundamentally anti-American.

    This right-wing sect manifests a complete lack of empathy toward other Americans whom it defines as its ideological enemies. Its core beliefs are absolutely impervious to reason and are unleashing ugly and violent impulses. What makes their zeal so dangerous for our country is their willingness to do serious damage to our precious American Democracy in their quest for absolute power.

    -The Assault on Reason (2007)

    SOUND FAMILIAR? IT DOES TO ME AND I AM SICK OF IT. IF YOU ARE TOO, VOTE OBAMA/BIDEN ???08

    www.republicansforobama.com

  • Posted By: whats next? @ 11/01/2008 6:06:59 PM

    i wonder how many voters who sit next to everyone and tell them they will be voting for obama and when
    they get inside that booth the real feelings come out .just can not vote for a black person,i can say it will
    surprise many not only here in n.h. but all over the country.also remmember ,fear,fear,fear,fear,terrorists,fear,
    terrorists,terrorists you get the idea.not to worry the chineese will call in their chips and we are all doomed.

  • Posted By: wendydk @ 10/31/2008 11:06:45 PM

    How to bring down a democracy: the steps toward totalitarian rule, in the order followed by Hitler and the Nazi Party SEE IF THEY SOUND FAMILIAR.

    1. Improvise an attack (or take advantage of an attack) on the country
    2. Declare the country under attack by an enemy; real or improvised
    3. Force legislation that limits civil liberties and gathers broad powers unto government
    4. Brand dissenters and peacemakers as unpatriotic and browbeat them into submission
    5. Keep the fear factor high to make the public easier to manage
    6. Institute massive propaganda campaigns using state-controlled no-longer-free media and fear of government retribution
    7. Law enforcement and government personnel are used to spy on, control and break dissent 7. Institute the equivalent of a national homeland security department, overseen by one person with unlimited powers
    8. Confiscate all firearms from the citizenry
    9. Institute the mass murder and imprisonment of any who resist the new ideology.
    10. Launch pre-emptive strikes into other countries in an attempt to spread the new ideology

    Sound familiar? It should, its not only the direct path of Hitlers rise to power, but also parallels the events starting with and following 9/11. President Bush was very familiar with the game plan, as his Grandfather and his Grandfathers father-in-law were supporters of Hitler and Nazism, both before and after the war.

    Of course, theyve skipped a couple of the items on the list, but theyll get to them if theyre allowed to remain in power, because it will be the only way for them to retain power.

    The Reichstag Fire: the funeral pyre of German democracy parallels 9/11 and the loss of American civil liberties

    http://www.essortment.com/all/nazireichstag_rghx.htm

    THE BEST REASON TO VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA THIS ELECTION YEAR

  • Posted By: wendydk @ 10/31/2008 4:48:52 PM

    How Racism Works

    What if John McCain were a former president of the Harvard Law Review?

    What if Barack Obama finished fifth from the bottom of his graduating class?

    What if McCain were still married to the first woman he said "I do" to?

    What if Obama were the candidate who left his first wife after she no longer measured up to his standards?

    What if Michelle Obama were a wife who not only became addicted to pain killers, but acquired them illegally through her charitable organization?

    What if Cindy McCain graduated from Harvard?

    What if Obama were a member of the "Keating 5"?

    What if McCain was a charismatic, eloquent speaker?

    If these questions reflected reality, do you really believe the election numbers would be as close as they are?

    This is what racism does. It covers up , rationalizes and minimizes positive qualities in one candidate and emphasizes negative qualities in another when there is a color difference.

    And, don't forget: What if Barack Obama had an unwed, pregnant teenage daughter.....

  • Posted By: Mwanga @ 10/31/2008 1:34:25 PM

    Why would a white need to hide that he will not vote for Obama?
    Even if it was because of racism a white can say I am not voting for Barak because he has not enough experience Period. Have not you seen a black woman crying and sobbing on TV wondering why democrats have nominated an inexperienced man over hillary? Whites have a right to the same color blind excuse.

  • Posted By: bammer @ 10/30/2008 3:15:52 PM

    WILL AMERICA PUNISH ITSELF ON NOV 4TH WHILE TRYING TO PUNISH BUSH

    Surely the Bush Administration needs to be punished in the woodshed, but I fear that the America electorate will only PUNISH ITSELF on Nov 4th by a MAJOR OVER-REACTION.

    WILL AMERICA BE SMART ON NOV 4TH OR WILL IT PUNISH ITSELF WITH NEW LEVEL OF 15 "DARWIN AWARDS"?

    1) A President and Congress that will want to dramatically raise taxes $2-4 Trillion to 2) Pay for a major new welfare state for 40% of US through 3) Extremely expensive new goverment health care programs like in Europe 4) New government education programs like in Chicago 5) Major cuts in defense spending 6) New taxes for 401(k)s, capital gains, death taxes, payroll taxes that would 7) Drive businesses to offshore 8) Reduced employment due to higher business costs 9) Surrender around the world as a military power to be more like Europe 10) Invite rough nations and leaders to test/attack America or America interests and allies around the world 11) Loss of the war on terror 12) negotiations, increased weakness, and capitulation with countries like Iran, N. Korea, and Russia 13) new social engineering laws and Supreme Court Justices for 14) Dramatically increased abortions 15) Dramatically increased gay marriages

  • Posted By: rockye @ 10/29/2008 1:57:07 PM

    IN MY OPINION: I BELIEVE THAT OBAMA HAS RUN AN EXCELLENT CAMPAIGN UP TO NOW. UNDER NORMAL CONDITIONS, HE SHOULD WIN THE ELECTION WITH A GOOD LEAD. HOWEVER, AS MUCH AS I HATE TO SAY IT, I MUST SAY WHAT I BELIEVE TO BE REAL: THE SILENT MAJORITY OF WHITE VOTERS IN THE NATION HAVE NOT SPOKEN. I HOPE THAT THEY WANT TO CHANGE THE GOVERNING PARTY WHO HAS DRIVEN US INTO THIS ECONOMIC DITCH.

    IF THE SILENT MAJORITY OF WHITE VOTER, ARE WITH OBAMA, THEN THE VICTORY WILL BE BY A LONG SHOT.

    WITH THIS IN MIND, I LOOK FOREWARD TO WHEN THE MAJORITY OF THE POPULATION IN THE UNITED STATES IS HISPANIC. THIS WOULD CALL FOR THE HISPANIC, MEXICAN AMERICAN EFFECT WHICH WILL BE FOR REAL....IN THE MEANTIME, GO OBAMA. GO, WIN.

  • Posted By: cloudburst @ 10/29/2008 3:29:22 AM

    A possible post-election scenario as written by an African guy. Go to http://africanpress.wordpress.com/2008/10/27/american-people-should-prepare-for-bloodshed-between-the-5th-of-november-2008-and-20th-of-january-2009-do-not-say-you-were-not-warned/

  • Posted By: cloudburst @ 10/29/2008 3:23:31 AM

    Here's a possible post-election scenario written by an African editor and why Americans need to choose wisely in the Nov. 4 elections. Go to http://africanpress.wordpress.com/2008/10/27/american-people-should-prepare-for-bloodshed-between-the-5th-of-november-2008-and-20th-of-january-2009-do-not-say-you-were-not-warned/ to read it.

  • Posted By: groundpounder @ 10/28/2008 6:27:37 PM

    There are racists out there but like cigarette smokers, they are les and less socially acceptable. This election won't change their frozen brains but it will make a huge impact on millions of others. We already know what we get with the Republicans; more billion dollar separation bonuses for rich fat cats, class warefare and a complete trampling of the constitution. Let's throw in a couple of wasted wars and the complete evisceration of the American monetary system not to mention the corruption of our system of justice. Yeah, it makes me really want to vote for Mc Same....NOT

  • Posted By: Nowforthetruth @ 10/27/2008 8:22:12 AM

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iivL4c_3pck

    2001 Chicago Public Citizen Radio Interview criticizing the Warren Court as not radical enough for not pursuing redistribution of wealth.

    Says that community organizing is for the purpose of assembling the political power to force redistribution of wealth.

  • Posted By: Nowforthetruth @ 10/25/2008 6:02:43 PM


    See Barney Franks comments on the news, including face the nation last week, stating that Democrats in Congress intend to greatly raise taxes and go on a spending spree.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1Mazjm_A5k

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJGnSAlqjoU

    See http://www.taxfoundation.org/blog/show/23617.html


    And again what was Frank saying at roughly the time McCains attempt at S.190. to fix Fannie and Freddie.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MGT_cSi7Rs

    "These two entities -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- are not facing any kind of financial crisis, the more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing."

    So who really is the liar that soaked the American people?

    See also: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/01/08/politics/main2335631.shtml

    In the exchange with "Joe the plumber" we found out that Obama really is as radical as his early political acquaintances, Davis, Ayers, Wright, etc., and that he is into the failed economic policy of wealth redistribution. Obama's tax and spending plans alone would be bad enough, but add Reid and Pelosi to the mix, with the three of them controlling both houses of Congress and the executive branch without any effective restraint, and you have something that should causes concern even among moderate Democrats.
    See Wall Street Journal: A Liberal Supermajority:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122420205889842989.html

    Their failed policies are what brought us to ruin. Even Bill Clinton says so. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsynspIqAoE
    Obama and a supermajority of Democrats simply is not the change we need, nor is it change we can afford.

    Obama's programs require him to tax, and his health care plan alone is a substantial hidden tax on all business, large an small. In reality, it does not really matter who he taxes, those taxes are going to be passed through the economy. He has to tax, because it is they only way he can pay for his massive social engineering experiments. Any first year economics student knows that taxation is a tool used to contract an economy experiencing inflation, because it reduces demand by reducing the amount of money individuals and businesses have to spend. It is contractionary, which is exactly what you do not want to do when the problem is that the economy is contracting already into recession. Like Hoover and FDR, Obama's plans will only make it worse for longer.
    See e.g. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/03/opinion/main4499465.shtml
    And
    http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/FDR-s-Policies-Prolonged-Depression-5409.aspx

  • Posted By: TheVigil @ 10/25/2008 6:00:23 PM

    Between a naval hero and longstanding Congressman and an unproven lawyer from Illinois...

    Who would you vote for?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cwhk1thFzGs

  • Posted By: Tantric288 @ 10/25/2008 4:37:35 PM

    Mr Nate Silver,have you considered the REVERSE Bradley effect?Specially in typically Red States or the Toss up States.What do I mean?Imagine a group of suburban white men(or women,for that matter)getting together on a weekend and the conversation turns to the election.Now let's say that 4 out of 5 of those in the group liek McCain and,just to avoid discord among the group,the 5th person goes along with the consensus choice at the gathering but then ACTUALLY votes for Obama in the elections.
    I am guessing(no,calculating)that this REVERSE Bradley effect would overwhelm any racial Bradley effect which you speak of-where the racialist voter can easily use one of several OTHER 'issues'(yesterday,I had a guy use JUST the 'guns' issue(just the ONE issue) to justify voting for McCain since his dad sold guns and they did not want any checks and balance on WHO they sell the guns to....Criminals,Crazy people,jilted spouses,angry neighbours-without any 'cooling off' or Profile check period-and to h*** with the lives lost-guns,guns,guns and money,money,money-all with NO Checks or Balances.Sounds a chord with this financial Crisis too doesn't it?).Also,consider that even SOME of those with that type of racial hangup MAY wake up from their 19th Century hangover and ACTUALLY examine the two Candidates' Agenda on the Issues which DIRECTLY affect them-Personally and come to the grudging but businesslike Conclusion that
    the Democratic Platform is MUCH Better for each and every one of them(even for Businessmen and Businesses)and that they have been taken for a rough ride by the Republican mantra of less and less Regulation is better(SURE,it's better for the Ultra Rich guys-earning tens of millions of $.Then they(the foxes)can massacre all the chickens(the middle class) in the henhouse.)They may finally wake up and realize that Religion(not REAL Religion but DIVISIVE hate-producing Religious topics) ,Race and Guns are all Issues which have been used by the Right Wing to make Political gains among groups which are susceptible to fall for these sort of poisonous refrains.
    That 'wake up' factor percentage may also be substantial. Along with more alertness against Voter disenfranchisement,firing up the Young Voters,generally lighting a fire under the Democratic base and adroit use of 21st Century methods and technologies give me great hope and should give the 'so called' always 'patriotic' and 'god fearing' Right wingers pause.
    P.S If the Right wing were ACTUALLY Patriotic and God fearing,they would not be using all those dubious tactics,Lies and dirty Smear Hate Politics which has only been emanating from the Republican side during this election campaign.Shame.I am proud to be on the Democratic side.

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