CAMPAIGN 2008

Holding Steady

Obama stays well ahead in the new NEWSWEEK Poll.

 
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October Surprises

Last-Minute Surprises in Election History

 
 
 
 

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With less than two weeks left in the presidential contest, Barack Obama continues to hold a commanding double-digit lead over John McCain according to the latest NEWSWEEK Poll. Among registered voters nationwide, Obama now leads McCain by 13 points, 53 percent to 40 percent. Among likely voters, Obama's lead is similarly strong, 53 percent to 41 percent.

Obama's lead in the NEWSWEEK Poll is consistent with other recent national polls, including soundings taken by CBS News and The New York Times, The Washington Post and ABC News, NBC News and The Wall Street Journal and by Pew Research, all of which measured Obama's lead over McCain as somewhere between 10 and 14 points. In the NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama's lead stayed virtually unchanged from two weeks ago, when he led McCain 52 to 41 among registered voters. (For the complete results, click here.)

The new poll suggests Obama is consolidating his support across demographic groups. He now leads McCain in every age group, even among voters 65 and older, who choose him over McCain 48 percent to 42 percent. He leads handily among men, 52 percent to 42 percent, and among women, 54 percent to 39 percent. He now leads McCain by 46 percent to 44 percent among working class whites, a dramatic reversal from April, when McCain led him in that group 53 percent to 35 percent.

Still, McCain's attempt to raise anxiety about Obama's economic policies—with his relentless focus on Joe the Plumber and his suggestion that an Obama presidency could usher in an era of socialism—seems to have had some effect with working-class voters. In the poll, 39 percent of working-class and poor whites said they would list as a major concern the fear that Obama's tax plans could hurt small business. The McCain attacks seem to have had a larger impact with middle class and high-income voters, 48 percent of whom deem Obama's tax policies a major concern.

But in general, the poll suggests the McCain campaign has failed to negatively define Obama in the way that it might have wished. A large majority of voters in the survey, 62 percent, now say they have a favorable view of Obama, versus 32 percent who have an unfavorable view. That's actually a small improvement, within the margin of error, for Obama over two weeks ago, when his favorable/unfavorable ratio was 60/36. By contrast, 50 percent of voters now say they have a favorable view of McCain, while 44 percent say they have an unfavorable view--a result that is basically unchanged from two weeks ago, when 51 percent had a favorable view of the Republican candidate and 45 had an unfavorable view. Despite repeated attempts by the McCain campaign to raise fears about the specter of one-party Democratic rule in Washington, only 34 percent of voters say they think Obama is too liberal, while a majority, 56 percent, say they think Obama's views on major issues are "about right."

Sarah Palin continues to be a major drag on the McCain ticket. For the first time since McCain picked Palin as his running mate, more voters, 46 percent, have an unfavorable opinion of the Alaska governor, than have a favorable opinion, 44 percent. Nearly a third of voters, 31 percent, say that McCain's choice of Palin makes them less likely to vote for him, while 19 percent say the Palin pick makes them more likely to choose McCain (49 percent say it makes no difference). Perhaps most concerning for the McCain campaign is that 34 percent of independents say the Palin pick makes them less likely to support McCain, compared to 45 percent of Democrats and 9 percent of Republicans.

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  • Posted By: rube @ 11/05/2008 9:05:42 AM

    Nowforsomemoretruth please quite repasting the same threads over and over...
    you obviously dont check your own spewage on fact check.
    Get a life dude.

  • Posted By: rube @ 11/05/2008 8:59:08 AM

    Get over it- go to work and become part of the answer. The past years were dismal at best.
    The neoconservatives have no one else to blame other than the worst president ever and the most subversive administration ever! The man Bush, conservatives voted for twice let our nation down period!
    If anything was stolen it was out trust, our love of country and out nations equity! Go to work!

  • Posted By: 40YearR @ 11/04/2008 11:09:56 AM

    ???Nowforsomethingotherthanthetruth??? exemplifies the measures employed by the McCain campaign starting with the anonymous smear emails that began when McC hired the Bush propaganda machine.

    This deception campaign tries to benefit from party loyalties. It preys upon hate, prejudice and fear, and on the ???unanswered questions??? fabricated by the anonymous emails this campaign perpetrated. Links to debunks of many of those fabrications are in an earlier posting.

    This is by far the greatest extreme ever in American politics. It is a fundamental threat to our political process. It would further entrench the Bush operatives who took over the McC campaign, and the republican lobbyists who represent only the megarich who looted our economy.

    McC was a maverick. He promised to root out the lobbyists he said are what???s wrong with Washington. He said he would not take the low road employed by the Bush machine when it smeared him. He sold out when he got behind and subscribed to the ideology that the end justifies the means.

    McC would continue the Bush tax give away to the rich that McC previously opposed and called ???irresponsible??? because ???it only benefits the rich.???

    McC now wants to give more billions in tax give aways to oil companies that have just reported the largest profits in history for two consecutive quarters, while he claims that lowering taxes for everyone under $250k in after-deduction income will somehow keep businessmen from starting businesses.

    ???Nowfor??? has employed many of the themes in the anonymous viral emails. He recently said it was ???revealed that Obama has PLO buddies??? referring to Rashid Khalidi to whom McC donated $440k:

    http://richmonddemocrat.blogspot.com/2008/10/mccain-funded-rashid-khalidi.html Guilt by association.

    "Nowfor" continues repasting that the cause of our problem is a law decades old that encourages loans to qualified low income people.

    Alan Greenspan said the cause is that an entire financial system was built outside of regulation; "we trusted" these self-interested looters ???to regulate themselves???. Credit Default Swaps resulted. They increased from $106 trillion in '02 to $531 trillion under R stewardship.

    The legitimate news has reported that Fannie and Freddie paid many millions to McC's campaign manager, Rick Davis, who received up to $35K/mo. from Fannie and Freddie from 2000 to while he has been McC's campaign manager.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/22/us/politics/22mccain.html and http://www.newsweek.com/id/164732/page/1

    Trillions were looted from our economy because the Rs allowed it. The Rs, including McC's campaign manager, are in the pockets of big money.

    Without solutions, it is necessary to campaign with deception, misdirection, fear, smears, hypocrisy.

    Attempts to hijack our political process with deceit and abuse of the trust of party loyalties are reasons I'm voting for Obama after 40 years of never voted for a Dem.

    A 40

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