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On Nov. 4, Barack Obama will be elected as the next president of the United States. The real excitement won't come from watching that foregone conclusion come to pass. No, the big question is, will Democrats nationwide simply "win" the night—or will they deliver an electoral drubbing so thorough that it signals the utter rejection of conservative ideology and kills the notion that America is a "center-right" country? Here are the key face-offs:

A national mandate: As President George W. Bush proved in 2000 with his razor-thin victory, a win is a win. But Obama will look for a genuine mandate reflected in both the electoral and the popular vote, as well as a broad geographic triumph. The safe bet now is for Obama to win with 300 to 350 electoral votes and a popular-vote margin of about 5 percent—a healthy victory. But 379 electoral votes would match Bill Clinton's 1996 tally without help from a third party candidate such as Ross Perot, while 53.5 percent of the popular vote would surpass President George H.W. Bush's 1988 total.

A national party: In recent years, Democrats have done well on the coasts and in the Great Lakes region, but had trouble in the Mountain West and South. Obama, however, is poised to prove that the old red/blue map no longer applies. In fact, of the 21 states that gave Bush double-digit wins in 2004, only two—Oklahoma and Tennessee—are showing bigger margins for John McCain in current polling. Seven of those 21 are now single-digit contests. Flipping some of those states will show that Democrats can win in GOP "strongholds" and that Republicans are no longer safe—anywhere.

Statement races: Losing your leader isn't just disruptive, it's demoralizing, as Democrats learned in 2004 when Republicans beat Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. That's why this year's deadlocked race in Kentucky between Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and his Democratic challenger, Bruce Lunsford, has Republicans in panic mode. Meanwhile, one of the GOP's biggest Senate celebrities, Elizabeth Dole, trails Democrat Kay Hagan in a tight race. In the House, Democrats are within striking distance in Wyoming's lone seat, once held by Vice President Dick Cheney, and in Texas's Seventh Congressional District, once held by George H.W. Bush.

Republicans are also in danger of losing what little diversity they currently have in Congress. If Democrats Joe Garcia, Raul Martinez and Annette Taddeo sweep the three south Florida seats held by Cuban-American Republicans, it will leave the House GOP caucus with no Latino members—as well as no African-Americans or Asian-Americans. New England's last House Republican, Connecticut's Chris Shays, could fall as well.

The McCarthyists: Democrats have seethed for six years at Georgia Sen. Saxby Chambliss for the repugnant campaign he waged against Vietnam War hero Max Cleland in 2002, in which he called his triple-amputee opponent a coward and implied he was a traitor. Fittingly, those same scorched-earth tactics are now creating headaches for Republicans. Reps. Michelle Bachmann (Minnesota), Robin Hayes (North Carolina) and Randy Kuhl (New York) are under siege for overplaying the patriotism card. Chambliss, meanwhile, is back in the limelight: he's in a nail-biter with Democrat Jim Martin.

Ballot initiatives: Cultural conservatives are frustrated at nationwide gains toward gay marriage equality, with California, Massachusetts and Connecticut now offering full marital rights to same-sex couples. California's law is being challenged by the ballot initiative Proposition 8. If it's successful, the cause of equality may be set back decades. If not, momentum will be boosted. South Dakota rejected a draconian abortion ban in 2006, but anti-abortion forces are back with a slightly modified version featuring language specifically designed to appease the Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade swing voter, Justice Anthony Kennedy. And in Colorado, corporate forces are pushing a "right to work" initiative designed to hamper union organizing in the state. No anti-union ballot initiative has been defeated at the polls in more than a decade.

Moulitsas is the publisher of DailyKos.com, a progressive Web site that generally supports Democratic candidates.

© 2008

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  • Posted By: Nowforsomemoretruth @ 11/02/2008 3:58:26 PM

    Kelo v. City of New London, 545 U.S. 469 (2005),
    What does redistributive mean. Well, remember that it was the liberal Left-Wing Justices of the U.S. Supreme Court that brought us this little jewel, holding that the government could take your real property, like your home, not for public use like a road or school, but to give to another private individual, such as a political contributor or other party hack or interest group.
    Kelo v. City of New London, 545 U.S. 469 (2005), was a case decided by the Supreme Court of the United States involving the use of eminent domain to transfer land from one private owner to another to further economic development. The case arose from the condemnation by New London, Connecticut, of privately owned real property so that it could be used as part of a comprehensive redevelopment plan. The Court held in a 5-4 decision that the general benefits a community enjoyed from economic growth qualified such redevelopment plans as a permissible "public use" under the Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment. Justice John Paul Stevens wrote the majority opinion; he was joined by Justices Anthony Kennedy, David Souter, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer
    The decision was widely criticized by American politicians and the general public. Many members of the general public viewed the outcome as a gross violation of property rights and as a misinterpretation of the Fifth Amendment, the consequence of which would be to benefit large corporations at the expense of individual homeowners and local communities. Some in the legal profession construe the public's outrage as being directed not at the interpretation of legal principles involved in the case, but at the broad moral principles of the general outcome.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelo_v._City_of_New_London

  • Posted By: Nowforsomemoretruth @ 10/31/2008 11:12:16 PM

    Study finds Media has Betray Trust of American People
    Newsweek Article:
    Study: Media coverage has favored Obama campaign
    Study finds comments on evening newscasts over the past two months favored the Obama campaign

    "For whatever reason, the media are portraying Barack Obama as a better choice for president than John McCain," said Robert Lichter, a George Mason University professor and head of the center. "If you watch the evening news, you'd think you should vote for Obama."

    http://www.newsweek.com/id/165218

    "A former Newsweek reporter admitted in an article this week that he has no objectivity and imagined disabling Rudy Giuliani so he wouldn't run in the presidential primary race last year.
    Michael Hastings wrote in GQ magazine that he had a "recurring fantasy" that he could somehow stop the former New York City mayor in his tracks.
    "I quickly realized Rudy was a maniac. I had a recurring fantasy in which I took him out during a press conference (it was nonlethal, just something that put him out of commission for a year or so), saving America from the horror of a President Giuliani. If that sounds like I had some trouble being 'objective,' I did. Objectivity is a fallacy," he said."

    http://men.style.com/gq/features/full?id=content_7484&pageNum=2

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/55_say_media_bias_bigger_problem_than_campaign_cash

    55% Say Media Bias Bigger Problem Than Campaign Cash

    http://www.mediaresearch.org/cyberalerts/2008/cyb20080819.asp

    Pew Research finds Media Credibility Plummets, Just 30% Believe 'Most Trusted' CNN

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/51_say_reporters_are_trying_to_hurt_palin_39_say_she_has_better_experience_than_obama
    51% Say Reporters Are Trying To Hurt Palin; 39% Say She Has Better Experience Than Obama


    Add to that The ugly side of Big Brother Socialism from the Obama Campaign: Media Blackmail
    October 31, 2008 12:27 PM ABC Reports:
    The Obama campaign has told three reporters they have to drop off the campaign plane this weekend. All three work for papers that endorsed Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.: the New York Post, the Washington Times, and the Dallas Morning News.
    http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/10/citing-space-co.html

    Barack Obama's campaign killed all interviews with a Florida TV station after Sen. Joe Biden, the Democratic vice presidential nominee, faced tough and critical questions from a reporter at the Orlando station, the Orlando Sentinel reported .
    "This cancellation is non-negotiable, and further opportunities for your station to interview with this campaign are unlikely, at best for the duration of the remaining days until the election," wrote Laura K. McGinnis, Central Florida communications director for the Obama campaign, according to the Sentinel.
    http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/entertai

  • Posted By: littleleers @ 10/31/2008 1:00:05 AM

    "Comment" Barny Frank caused it?? "Your are crazy!!!"
    Poster is not crazy....Barny Frank and Freddie Mac, Fanny Mae lobbyists blocked all attempts
    to rein in the GSE's secondary market support of irresponsible predatory loans. Check this:
    http://www.ldsmag.com/ideas/081017light.html

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