Gunning For Wen

Before it passes, the global economic crisis may topple its share of leaders. Will China's Prime Minister Wen Jiabao become a casualty? That's the speculation, thanks to an Oct. 14 article in the Hong Kong magazine Kaifang ("Open"). The piece suggested that Wen has become a target of party hard-liners unhappy with his pro-democracy leanings, citing as evidence recent public criticisms of "universal values"—code for the liberal reforms he supports. It also suggested that if China's economy hits the rocks, conservatives could make Wen "the scapegoat" and bring him down.

Kaifang offered no proof of a power struggle, and Wen seems to retain President Hu Jintao's full backing. The P.M., known as "Grandpa," is also immensely popular with the masses. But that won't necessarily help him. The same moves that have won Wen points with the people—showing concern for the Sichuan earthquake and accepting responsibility for the tainted-milk scandal—have irked hard-liners, as have his calls for reform. And when the economy falters, the P.M. traditionally gets the blame.

There's no denying that China's economy is now in trouble. Last quarter, GDP growth dropped below double digits for the first time in five years. That may not sound bad, but Beijing believes it must maintain at least 8 percent growth to keep social unrest at bay. If conditions worsen—or, as Kaifang put it, should China's markets and the "ship of reform" hit the rocks—"who … should take responsibility? There would be no other choice but Wen Jiabao."

© 2008