How To Fight Al Qaeda Now

OK, after seven years of the global war on terror, how stands Al Qaeda now?
Al Qaeda remains the world's first truly global terrorist organization. Think of it as a multinational corporation. It has a CEO and deputy CEO and a propaganda apparatus all headquartered in Pakistan, with franchise operations in Saudi Arabia, in Iraq, another in Yemen, another in North Africa—then with cells throughout the Muslim diaspora in Western Europe, particularly in the U.K. And its tradecraft—its way of doing business, if you like—is very sophisticated. It's a relatively small organization—thousands but not tens of thousands—but one which has been able in the seven years since 2001 to attack literally across the globe, from one end of the Islamic world to another, with "raids," as they call them, into Western Europe. They call 9/11 "the Manhattan Raid." And we know that in August 2006 they came perilously close to another attack in North America, with the attempt to simultaneously blow up 10 jumbo jets en route to North American cities out of Heathrow. That came far nearer to success that most people recognize ... International air travel would have collapsed.

What are Al Qaeda ' s weaknesses?
Its vulnerabilities are significant. First, its nihilistic resort to violence alienates most Muslims who do not see this as true to Islam. So you begin to see a backlash, with Islamic voices now speaking up. Second, Al Qaeda doesn't have a program. It wants a return to the Caliphate [the Ottoman rule over the Arab world from Constantinople, now Istanbul]. But what would that mean in practice? Al Qaeda points to the Taliban rule in Afghanistan. But by any metric, that was a disaster. And the idea that a complex and sophisticated society like, say, Egypt, could be run like that is nonsense. And everyone knows it.

Some see Al Qaeda ' s failure to mobilize mass support in the Muslim, and especially Arab, world as a symptom of decline.
That's another misunderstanding. Mobilization of the masses is not the objective. Al Qaeda sees itself as a vanguard organization. Its leaders call themselves "The Knights."

So what should we do? Brits like Stella Rimington, the former head of their Security Service, have criticized the U.S. response as overly military.
I think in many respects she is right. We have pursued Al Qaeda by military means—with considerable success. But our war of choice in Iraq has mobilized, I suspect, the next two generations of recruits to Al Qaeda. Meanwhile, we haven't tackled the fundamental challenge, which I call attacking Al Qaeda's narrative—its reading of history. Al Qaeda's anti-Western message gains traction from the belief, widespread among Muslims, that the U.S. doesn't respect the Muslim world. So, of course we must pursue Al Qaeda's leadership and its propaganda apparatus; we must go after the franchises. But we need at the same time to use our diplomatic strength far more effectively and consistently than we have, to settle those issues of importance to Muslims. Top of the list are the Israel-Palestinian dispute and Kashmir. On Palestine, we must enter vigorously into final negotiations for a settlement based on the two-state solution. And I think Kashmir is resolvable: India's reopening of a trade route through Kashmir—after 60 years—is a hopeful sign. I think India shares all our worries about Pakistan.

Pakistan looms as the next big crisis, doesn ' t it?
Pakistan is crucial. It was a base for Al Qaeda or its adherents even before 9/11. Now Pakistan itself is under attack. It finds itself both patron and victim. But there is hope. Pakistan now has a democratically elected civilian government. The new government is on a learning curve. But its leaders clearly recognize the dimensions of the problem they face. We have to work with them, and give them all the help we can. That will need very sophisticated handling. Personally, I'd like to see us mount a Marshall Plan for Pakistan and Afghanistan. Not just economic support, but a real effort to bring education and the other basics of a modern society that they desperately need.

Bruce Riedel Is The Author Of “The Search For Al Qaeda: Its Leadership, Ideology, And Future” (Brookings Institution Press. $26.95)

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