FINANCE

Currency Conundrums

Surprise movements by the yen could trigger a new crisis.

 

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The 2008 financial crisis has prompted many analysts to speculate about the decline of major developed economies like the United States and Japan as hubs for global capital. Currency flows, however, tell a different story. As markets worldwide stumbled, foreign governments have poured money into dollar- and yen-denominated holdings, sharply reversing a trend that saw steep declines in both currencies over the past few years. In late October, the dollar jumped to a two-year high against the euro; it has also risen sharply against the British pound, the Swiss franc, the Canadian and Australian dollars, and several other major currencies. The Japanese yen has risen even more sharply—even against the dollar—prompting G7 officials to indicate they may move to intervene in currency markets to dampen the yen's volatility, and forcing the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates. It may be comforting for some analysts to see renewed confidence in formerly maligned currencies, but the trend also poses major economic concerns.

The yen's rise is the most imminent threat. The run-up could undermine exports and growth of one of the world's largest economies, but the more immediate concern for the finance sector stems from bets many investors had made through an obscure practice called the "carry trade." Investors would take out loans in low-interest rate currencies (like the yen), exchange the money to higher-interest-rate currencies (like the dollar or euro), and reloan it out. In so doing, they stood to make more interest on the second loan than they paid on the first one—free money, so long as interest rates and currency valuations remained steady. The past year has seen these rates change rapidly, however, as the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have been forced to cut their benchmark interest rates to boost their struggling economies. Carry traders, including some large financial institutions, now find themselves "in front of a steamroller," the Financial Times says in an editorial. The New York Times cites an analyst who estimates over $425 billion of global funds could be tied up in the international carry trade, and the FT says a collapse could further slam the Japanese economy and perhaps even bring back dreaded deflation.

Officials from leading economies have urged action. Europe and the United States could try to push down the value of the yen by making a coordinated move to sell it; Tokyo could do the same, or it could try to dampen the currency's rise by cutting interest rates. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde kicked responsibility to the Bank of Japan: "We wished to support this possible intervention of Japanese authorities, knowing this would be about a purely Japanese intervention," she said. Yet Japan's benchmark interest rate is already at levels (0.5 percent) much lower than U.S. or EU rates, and the Japanese stock market has crashed in recent weeks faster than its developed-world counterparts. Nor has the Bank of Japan shown much appetite for intervening in currency markets by buying or selling yen.

Meanwhile, the dollar continues its sharp rise against all major currencies other than the yen, posing other problems for financial stability—for one thing, rapid currency fluctuations can make it difficult to price exports and imports. Simon Johnson, a former IMF chief economist, expresses surprise that the G7 focused only on the yen at its October 27 meetings. As investors have fled from emerging markets and commodities, they have increasingly poured money into U.S.-dollar denominated holdings as a safe haven. One analyst, Al Breach, describes this flight of capital in a recent podcast focusing on distressed Russian markets. In another podcast, CFR's Brad Setser notes the strong recent correlation between oil prices and the dollar, implying that the collapse of crude might also have something to do with the dollar's spike. The rising dollar means U.S. exports are less attractive to foreign consumers, further crippling U.S. firms at a time when many are facing severe problems.

© 2008

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Member Comments

  • Posted By: ObamaYesWeCan @ 11/02/2008 12:43:57 AM

    This moronic scumbag Samuel J. Wurzelbacher "Joe the Plumber" had his AZ driver license suspended

    http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/128323

    Wurzelbacher, who lived in Mesa in 2000 and had an Arizona driver's license, had his driver's license suspended by the Arizona Department of Transportation Motor Vehicle Division on May 4, 2000, following a nonpayment of a court-imposed fine for civil traffic violations, according to court records.

    ...owes nearly $1,200 in back taxes, according to public records, still owes more than $700 to the Mesa court system.

    Records show he was cited for failure to stop at a red light and for failure to provide proof of insurance on Feb. 9, 2000, in a black Dodge truck at the intersection of Dobson and Baseline roads in Mesa.

    After failing to pay his original fine of $627.50 issued in March 2000, his license was suspended and the fine was handed over to a collection agency along with a 16 percent surcharge. The now-resident of Holland, Ohio, still owes $727.90 to the Mesa Municipal Court, according to court records.

    Hopefully the collection agency will break both of his legs so he'll never be able to walk nor work ever again. This typical Republican scumbag deserves it.

  • Posted By: Vote Now @ 11/01/2008 2:28:13 PM

    Sarah palin when asked about becoming vp responded

    "As for that VP talk all the time, I tell you, I still can't answer that question until somebody answers for me, 'what is it exactly that the VP does every day......"

    After she had been the nominee for around 2 months she was asked again and this time said

    [T]hey???re in charge of the U.S. Senate so if they want to they can really get in there with the senators and make a lot of good policy changes that will make life better for Brandon and his family and his classroom.

    If she doenst know what the vice pres or presidant does why would we give her the job

    mccain has around a 40 percent chance because of his age in not being able to

    complete his term

    picking palin was about as smart as picking any other mrs alaska contestant

    let send her back to the north

    elect obama biden now

  • Posted By: wendydk @ 11/01/2008 11:49:58 AM

    How to bring down a democracy: the steps toward totalitarian rule, in the order followed by Hitler and the Nazi Party; SEE IF THEY SOUND FAMILIAR.

    1. Improvise an attack (or take advantage of an attack) on the country
    2. Declare the country under attack by an enemy; real or improvised
    3. Force legislation that limits civil liberties and gathers broad powers unto government
    4. Brand dissenters and peacemakers as unpatriotic and browbeat them into submission
    5. Keep the fear factor high to make the public easier to manage
    6. Institute massive propaganda campaigns using state-controlled no-longer-free media and fear of government retribution
    7. Law enforcement and government personnel and ordinary citizens are used to spy on, control and break dissent.
    8. Institute the equivalent of a national homeland security department, overseen by one person with unlimited powers
    9. Confiscate all firearms from the citizenry
    10. Institute the mass murder and imprisonment of any who resist the new ideology.
    11. Launch pre-emptive strikes into other countries in an attempt to spread the new ideology

    Sound familiar? It should, its not only the direct path of Hitlers rise to power, but also parallels the events starting with and following 9/11. President Bush was very familiar with the game plan, as his Grandfather and his Grandfathers father-in-law were supporters of Hitler and Nazism, both before and after the war. (See George Herbert Walker and Prescott Bush and the Union Banking Corporation)

    Of course, the Bush Administration has skipped a couple of the items on the list, but theyll get to them if their party is allowed to remain in power; it will be the only way for them to retain control over the citizenry.

    The Reichstag Fire: the funeral pyre of German democracy

    http://www.essortment.com/all/nazireichstag_rghx.htm

    THE BEST REASON TO VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA THIS ELECTION YEAR

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