The Pickens Plan is too complex and expensive (not to mention self-serving).
It forces everyone to switch to a NEW platform of cars that are INCOMPATIBLE with normal existing gasoline fuel. So if you're driving your natural gas Pickensmobile, and can't find a natural gas station, you're out of luck.
That's why it requires that we massively overhaul our entire infrastructure.
And for what? Natural gas? Liquid fuel is far more practical, but natural gas is a GAS at normal pressure and temperature. So you have to compress it under high pressure (HUGE risk of leaks and explosions) or cryogenically chill it (energy drain, safety risk, high cost, catastrophic failure problems).
Especially pointless because that same natural gas he's pushing at us can be turned (via simple, generations-old chemistry) into a fuel that IS liquid at normal pressure and temperature: methanol.
Thus the real way forward is the Energy Victory plan put forward by former NASA engineer Dr. Robert Zubrin, which is to require that all new cars sold (not made) in the US have flex fuel capability.
Flex fuel vehicles are just like normal current gasoline autos of any size, shape, function, or performance level with one CHEAP ($100~$200, unlike hybrids which cost thousands more) but critical difference: they have an additional internal fuel sensor and modifications to the fuel line and electronic fuel injector software allowing them to also use alcohol fuel (such as methanol), in the same fuel tank, in any mix (or none at all) with gasoline.
Alcohol fuel burns cleaner than gasoline - no particulate emissions hence no smog; no CO2 hence no global warming, etc. Also if spilled from supertankers or leaked from underground storage at gas stations alcohol fuel dissolves readily in days into harmless components; whereas the Exxon Valdez is still killing wildlife.
The reason we need a mandate is to break through the chicken and egg dilemma. Even though alcohol capability is cheap to add and make cheaper fuel available, few customers know about it or bother to ask for it because few gas stations have an alcohol pump. In turn, few gas stations will bother switching a pump to alcohol when only 3% of cars on the road have flex fuel capability.
With a mandate, we'd have 50 million FFVs on the road in 3 years. All would be able to fill up on gasloline if they can't find alcohol, making them a PRACTICAL bridge technology. But having a vehicle that can burn CHEAPER, safer, higher-octane, cleaner-burning fuel that does NOT fund our enemies abroad will spur demand for gas station owners to add alcohol pumps. At that point wealth is massively redirected away from the Saudis, Iranians, Venezuelans, and Russians and toward peaceful farmers and domestic coal miners (yes, coal can be made into methanol too!).
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Moving From Votes to Volts
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Even if we increase oil drilling, engineers point to a significant lag time—up to a decade—before new supplies of oil can truly relieve gas prices. Why bother?
We fought the entire Second World War in three years and eight months. Think about that … We haven't had a seismographic survey since 1984 on fuel reserves, so you have new 3-D seismographic capabilities. No one has even tried using them. So we're told on one hand we don't have any capacity, but that we also are not allowed to look.
Don't you worry about the potential devastation of oil spills from offshore drilling?
First of all, there's natural seepage in the Santa Barbara Channel every day. There's natural seepage off Norway every day. It's an inherent part of those natural systems. Even with the oil coming in from Saudi Arabia, those ships still dock in Florida. And the fact is that, statistically, ships are more dangerous.
What do you make of T. Boone Pickens's energy plan?
Wind has a role to play. I would very much favor the federal government helping create the [electrical] transmission system he wants. But on natural gas, you have to ask: how rapidly, talking realistically, can you really convert vehicles to run on natural gas? That is a huge project. I don't think it fulfills the requirement for the foreseeable future. The internal-combustion engine will continue to be very important.
If Obama wins and you had a line-item veto on his energy plan, what would you eliminate?
His energy plan is largely pious hope. He hopes they can make breakthroughs and do this or that.
Obama said in one of the debates that Americans need to sacrifice and cut back their energy usage. How do you think that'll fly as part of the solution?
Just as well as it did with Jimmy Carter. People don't elect presidents who tell them to sacrifice. They elect presidents who solve problems so they don't have to sacrifice.
The cost of oil is less than half what it was earlier this year. Will talk about green tech and energy efficiency dissipate?
It's not going to go away for two reasons. First, even with prices lower, we're still sending money overseas to people who turn around and use that money to buy our companies. Second is that long-term demand from China and India for oil and gas is inevitable. This won't go away. Civilizations are growing, and as more and more people desire a better life all over the world, they're going to use more energy.
© 2008
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